Gosh, it's like sitting in on a discussion between Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek watching you two titans articulating your views on the triumphs of Trump's economic record.

As you can see from the mixed set of indicators in the articles I attached there have been economic successes or a continuation of things from previous administrations that Trump will be able to herald in an election year. They may even get him over the line.

Several are short term though. Without wishing to sound like Organ Morgan the national debt continues to increase at an accelerated rate fuelled by a combination of decreased tax revenues thanks to the tax cut package implemented early in his tenure and increased spending. The fact that he is promising more tax cuts in this climate shows he is happy to play fast and loose with long term prosperity.

The other indicator to watch is the balance of payments, where despite MAGA rhetoric, the level of imports vs exports continues to rise. Despite tariffs it seems that no sooner are tax cuts placed in Americans' pockets that they are out there spending this on foreign imported goods. Any protestation to the Fed to reduce interest rates that succeeds is unlikely to stem this tide as incentives to save are further diminished.

What saving and investment that is taken place to address this imbalance are foreigners with trade surpluses buying up American financial and capital assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate. This inward investment is so great that it appreciates the dollar, further raising the incentive to buy cheaper foreign goods and services and keeping this invirtuous circle going.

This is unlikely to blow up in Trump's face in the short term but can't perpetuate if the USA is to remain the world's strongest economy.