Covid Rates in Wales - have the greater restrictions worked at all?

[az city]

Wales has 5% of the UK population and today we had 8% of the UK's Covid cases. Yesterday was similar.

Some stats are sometimes below 5% and there's a way to go yet etc, but...

Is there any firm evidence that the restrictions imposed in Wales have worked at all? Have they actually "kept Wales safe"? England had a more liberal approach and it doesn't seem to have made their cases worse.

Scotland 11,827
Wales 11,693
Northern Ireland 2,706
England 115,998
UK 142,224
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats

Jimbo, don't go there on this. You're going to get slaughtered.

There is no way of scientifically (statistically) testing this. Basically, there are too many variables and too much missing data across the two countries.

Personally, I commend Wales' cautious approach. At least Wales can say it tried to mitigate the impacts of Covid 19.