Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Baloo]

Nor ad-hominem attacks. Strange that.

Apologise to Jon not me.

[CCFCC3PO]

Apologise to Jon not me.

I haven't apologised to you.

In response to me saying that we have never before produced a vaccine in 18 months, Jon was as sarcastic in his response as I was in mine.

After extensive research (3 clicks on Google) I can reveal that a vaccine for Zika virus was developed and ready for testing in 7 months - back in 2015.

So, now you have the context let's see you come to a more reasoned conclusion.

[Baloo]

I haven't apologised to you.

In response to me saying that we have never before produced a vaccine in 18 months, Jon was as sarcastic in his response as I was in mine.



So, now you have the context let's see you come to a more reasoned conclusion.

Fair enough

[jon1959]

I haven't apologised to you.

In response to me saying that we have never before produced a vaccine in 18 months, Jon was as sarcastic in his response as I was in mine.



So, now you have the context let's see you come to a more reasoned conclusion.

Fair enough

I was being a bit sarcastic, but that was in response to posts from CCFCC3PO that vaccines have never been developed in less than 5 years and his refusal to engage with the very many expert claims over recent months that a COVID9 vaccine may be available in 12-18 months based on current levels of research and collaboration. For what it's worth (contrary to his claim) I never said a Zika vaccine was produced in 7 months - I said I had found an online article that said the researchers were ready for clinical testing after 7 months (indicating rapid progress) but that the testing was never carried out because the virus fizzled out.

This is mainly about how confident we can be about vaccine development - and what that means for lock down, the importance of testing and tracing, and the shape and speed of any exit strategy - not about our variable levels of ignorance. My level of ignorance is very high, but I have enough confidence in people who do know stuff to think that CCFCC3POs insistence on 5 years minimum is overly pessimistic.

[CCFCC3PO]

I was being a bit sarcastic, but that was in response to posts from CCFCC3PO that vaccines have never been developed in less than 5 years and his refusal to engage with the very many expert claims over recent months that a COVID9 vaccine may be available in 12-18 months based on current levels of research and collaboration. For what it's worth (contrary to his claim) I never said a Zika vaccine was produced in 7 months - I said I had found an online article that said the researchers were ready for clinical testing after 7 months (indicating rapid progress) but that the testing was never carried out because the virus fizzled out.

This is mainly about how confident we can be about vaccine development - and what that means for lock down, the importance of testing and tracing, and the shape and speed of any exit strategy - not about our variable levels of ignorance. My level of ignorance is very high, but I have enough confidence in people who do know stuff to think that CCFCC3POs insistence on 5 years minimum is overly pessimistic.

I have no problems with the sarcasm, and I am sure you have no problems either.

With regards to the Zika vaccine - getting a vaccine to clinical trial in 7 months does not equate to having a fully working vaccine, nor does it equate to having enough of the vaccine to immunise the population that needs it (i.e. the people living in countries where the virus is prevalent). They are still working on a vaccine for the Zika virus by the way.

Nobody has achieved a vaccine on such a scale in 12-18 months, and that is why I am incredibly cautious about pinning hopes on getting a working vaccine out and to 60% of the population of the world (since it is affecting practically every country in the world) in that time. 60% is the figure I see quoted for herd immunity.

I have not insisted that a vaccine will take a minimum of 5 years. I am suggesting that people treat the headlines with caution. It could well be that we have a virus in 12 months, it could be that there will be enough to immunize the suspected 60% of the population that requires it (i.e. to achieve herd immunity) in 12-18 months. If it happens, it will be an incredible achievement, the like of which we have not seen before.