Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Quite right. Simply screaming "Brexit" and "supply side / doesn't help" at everyone is like a wolf howling in all directions in the dark. Rent-a-vent. That is all it is.

Even reading the FT commentaries and sensible papers like The Times, it seems many idiots believe these "single cause" effects. Don't get me started on the highly mockable nonsense you see on the BBC, Guardian and Independent comments sections. Far, far worse. It is just people regurgitating GCSE level understandings of the world, and sometimes lower than that. It is precisely what I was saying about monkeys mixing politics with economics, or whinging about social policy, rather than staying focused on a cold headed analysis.

If you go into an economic debate with your political head on, you will never understand it and never solve it. Which is precisely why when Jeremy Hunt, Rachel Reeves, Kwasi Kwarteng, Ed Davey, that Green Party bird or Jeremy Corbyn start proffering their views, I urge everyone to turn the television off or change the channel. It is garbage. Political garbage. Not economics. Change the channel and choose Dora The Explorer. Far more productive use of time and you'll probably learn more. The TV clowns are on TV for politics and to get ratings. They are no role model and they talk through their rusty sheriff's badge most of the time.

If you genuinely want to know what is happening pick off the top economists. It is not a fun subject. It is dry. It is deep. It is heavy, and technical. It cannot be understood by a Comments section nor a Twitter line. There are several causes of inflation this time around (four in fact), and some of those four items have caused a "second round effect" as they have been left untreated. To shout "Brexit" is just retarded, in the grand scheme of a heavy subject.

Exactly about Brexit, nothing to do with this!

Covid, Furlough, Quantitative easing, Global supply chains, Global energy costs, War in Ukraine, forward pricing, and wage inflation are the main drivers and not easy to solve with just interest rate increases because it doesn't affect the whole population, and it's toughest on the young and the poor.

[Doucas]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

I am not defensive. I outline my thoughts in a very clear way and super-secure in them.

The London School of Economics is a hole for Keynesian economists. They use mathematical models that are 60 years out of date. Mocked by people in the City, in the late 1990s it became a breeding ground for the Labour and Liberal party, and some in the Conservative party. It is now more focused on promoting high debt / spending in mature economies and banging on about Brexit. You have proven my point by leading me to an LSE article. I have seen enough of them, and no city trader with money on the line reads them. It is this cabal of political-economists that are hired by the incompetent OECD, IMF, and UK Treasury. It is free toilet paper my friend. You are looking in the wrong place, but at least you confirmed my suspicions of where your ideas come from.

If you want to see sound economics, free of political thinking, you to Bayes Business School or London Business School. They feed the hedge fund and investment bank economists, who have a modern understanding of the economy.

Has brexit made it more expensive to import goods? Yes or no.

[Doucas]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

The Brexiteers blaming the shambles theyve caused the country on the opposition is comedy gold.

'If only they believed enough'

It would be funny if it wasn't so predictable. They can never take responsibility.

[Doucas]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Exactly about Brexit, nothing to do with this!

Covid, Furlough, Quantitative easing, Global supply chains, Global energy costs, War in Ukraine, forward pricing, and wage inflation are the main drivers and not easy to solve with just interest rate increases because it doesn't affect the whole population, and it's toughest on the young and the poor.

I give up. Global supply chains are a major factor according to you but the most important supply chain in the UK possibly ever, nah that's peanuts.

Utter joke.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Exactly about Brexit, nothing to do with this!

Covid, Furlough, Quantitative easing, Global supply chains, Global energy costs, War in Ukraine, forward pricing, and wage inflation are the main drivers and not easy to solve with just interest rate increases because it doesn't affect the whole population, and it's toughest on the young and the poor.

Brexit is a partial factor, but if it were the only factor then we would not have seen inflation in the rest of EU and US. So precisely that. The above factors are the combination we are dealing with.

On Global supply chains there are multiple subcauses:

1. Panama canal water levels low, slowing ships through a major Asia > US / Europe / UK transport route, and therefore increasing costs and hitting supply speeds. Some ships have to around Chile and Argentina, creating a massive increase in fuel costs, reflected in final prices

2. Iranian tanker hijacked / stuck in Suez for 18 months ago caused a knock-on impact of Asian trade coming via Suez to the UK / EU. Took twelve months to feed through. Caused a spike in items from China / Asia

3. China lockdown smashing the semiconductor supply chain, hitting all key components of electrical goods from DJ equipment, sound systems, stereos, fridges, freezers and also automobile components. Simply re-opening China wouldn't fix it - it all had to catch up

But more to come. 90% of semi-conductor chips are made in Taiwan via the company called TSMC. In order to sidestep a threat of a China invasion, semiconductor production is being re-shored to the US and to Japan (although that is risky). The labour costs there are Western standard, although it makes it safer from attack. So inflation from that will final prices in big way and that is a long term thing, not a temporary fix.

So its complex. But those saying it's just Brexit are just borderline neanderthals. It plays a fraction of the role in inflation, and the list you supplied covers the global issues causing it. Let the wolves howl in the dark and continue their rent-a-vent.

Pea brains cannot grow, and politically charged debates will never get it. Thank goodness they don't operate on a trading floor. They don't have the skills, they would lose a fortune, and they be sacked in record time. You just cannot think and operate in that biased manner. No wonder so many people's decision making processes in life and barely functional. It is now becoming clearer to me.

[Doucas]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Brexit is a partial factor, but if it were the only factor then we would not have seen inflation in the rest of EU and US.

Literally nobody is saying this, who are you arguing against?!

I've found this repeatedly on this forum partiularly from those on the right, they make up what someone has said and argue against that instead of the actual points made.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Literally nobody is saying this, who are you arguing against?!

I've found this repeatedly on this forum partiularly from those on the right, they make up what someone has said and argue against that instead of the actual points made.

There you go again. Left / Right. Brexit / Remain. You will never understand economics because every comment you make is politically charged. You cannot detach yourself into technical matters, without conflating it with politics.

Face it. You have never put your money on the line with economic calls. You have never worked such an environment, and you have not practically applied economics.

I have done all three, so I have something rock solid to base it on. So sorry pal, I take no lectures from you. If you want to learn I am happy to share and educate, but it's crystal clear to me that it will not be the other way around. That much is obvious.

[jon1959]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

It's not the truth though is it, you look to blame everything on Brexit.

If Labour hadn't tried to stop it for so long and liaised with the opposition, it would have worked a lot better as we ould have been able to play hard ball and fight for a fairer deal.

Labour all voted against and a couple of knobs like Dom Grieve caused the problems related to Brexit by delaying it and watering it down. If it hadn't been for them you wouldn't have had Boris the Brexit slayer!

Boris 'Get Brexit Done' Johnson had an 80 seat majority at the 2019 election and you still come out with this pathetic whinge about the opposition and EU doing their jobs - not acting like brain-dead Tory backbenchers!

You voted Tory. You voted Brexit. Own your own shit show.

You are right that Brexit isn't the only factor in inflation sticking so high. No one one here said it was. But it is a significant factor.

[Doucas]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

There you go again. Left / Right. Brexit / Remain. You will never understand economics because every comment you make is politically charged. You cannot detach yourself into technical matters, without conflating it with politics.

Face it. You have never put your money on the line with economic calls. You have never worked such an environment, and you have not practically applied economics.

I have done all three, so I have something rock solid to base it on. So sorry pal, I take no lectures from you. If you want to learn I am happy to share and educate, but it's crystal clear to me that it will not be the other way around. That much is obvious.

Pahahaha rattled.

Notice how again you've ignored what I've said and gone on some rant about nothing really.

Google AMC stock from 2021, I rode that wave from about $4 with almost every penny I had and cashed out near the top and made a very significant amount of money so don't talk to me about never putting my money on the line.

So this time actually answer my question, who are you arguing against because literally nobody has said brexit is the only cause of inflation.

[MOZZER2]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Brexit is a partial factor, but if it were the only factor then we would not have seen inflation in the rest of EU and US. So precisely that. The above factors are the combination we are dealing with.

On Global supply chains there are multiple subcauses:

1. Panama canal water levels low, slowing ships through a major Asia > US / Europe / UK transport route, and therefore increasing costs and hitting supply speeds. Some ships have to around Chile and Argentina, creating a massive increase in fuel costs, reflected in final prices

2. Iranian tanker hijacked / stuck in Suez for 18 months ago caused a knock-on impact of Asian trade coming via Suez to the UK / EU. Took twelve months to feed through. Caused a spike in items from China / Asia

3. China lockdown smashing the semiconductor supply chain, hitting all key components of electrical goods from DJ equipment, sound systems, stereos, fridges, freezers and also automobile components. Simply re-opening China wouldn't fix it - it all had to catch up

But more to come. 90% of semi-conductor chips are made in Taiwan via the company called TSMC. In order to sidestep a threat of a China invasion, semiconductor production is being re-shored to the US and to Japan (although that is risky). The labour costs there are Western standard, although it makes it safer from attack. So inflation from that will final prices in big way and that is a long term thing, not a temporary fix.

So its complex. But those saying it's just Brexit are just borderline neanderthals. It plays a fraction of the role in inflation, and the list you supplied covers the global issues causing it. Let the wolves howl in the dark and continue their rent-a-vent.

Pea brains cannot grow, and politically charged debates will never get it. Thank goodness they don't operate on a trading floor. They don't have the skills, they would lose a fortune, and they be sacked in record time. You just cannot think and operate in that biased manner. No wonder so many people's decision making processes in life and barely functional. It is now becoming clearer to me.

bang on the money regarding the semi con industry but think we will see a glut of manufacturing chip plants not just in USA but in Europe too . Intel although a USA company just announced a huge investment in Germany

https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-06-19/intel-and-germany-sign-agreement-for-328-billion-chip-plant-investment.html

surprised to see this thread still on the football message board !

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

The people who voted brexit ......and tory ......defending their decision .....even though its stoking inflation

It's 😂

Interest rates ......that's the Guardians fault too

Bloody lefties

😂

[J R Hartley]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

God there’s some braggarts on this thread.

A good old fashioned CCMB pissing contest going on here.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Pahahaha rattled.

Notice how again you've ignored what I've said and gone on some rant about nothing really.

Google AMC stock from 2021, I rode that wave from about $4 with almost every penny I had and cashed out near the top and made a very significant amount of money so don't talk to me about never putting my money on the line.

So this time actually answer my question, who are you arguing against because literally nobody has said brexit is the only cause of inflation.

So as a private investor you have had one share, or a few lucky punts, opened a retail broker account, clicked buy and sell a few times, and suddenly that makes you a professional, or an all-knowedgeable on markets and economics?

Fantastic! I'll open the popcorn. Keep your funny lines coming. I am sure Goldman Sachs are hunting your CV right now.

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Boris 'Get Brexit Done' Johnson had an 80 seat majority at the 2019 election and you still come out with this pathetic whinge about the opposition and EU doing their jobs - not acting like brain-dead Tory backbenchers!

You voted Tory. You voted Brexit. Own your own shit show.

You are right that Brexit isn't the only factor in inflation sticking so high. No one one here said it was. But it is a significant factor.

I voted to remain.

But the public voted to leave, and I accepted it!