Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

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https://youtu.be/UKAY97gpnrw?si=a-4sHLxgoZOoWQn1

I am ex forces he says

Probably threw him out with all those tattoos

Problem today is you can't be racist without people calling you racist

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Seems a nice bloke

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-election-candidate-posted-chart-31206989

When you think who the former MP was as well, you’d guess they had no chance, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they retain the seat.

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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Seems a nice bloke

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-election-candidate-posted-chart-31206989

When you think who the former MP was as well, you’d guess they had no chance, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they retain the seat.

When you have a weak opposition that's always going to be a fair shout

That ex army bloke is an advert for stupidity

[Dorcus]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Seems a nice bloke

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-election-candidate-posted-chart-31206989

When you think who the former MP was as well, you’d guess they had no chance, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they retain the seat.

Apparently the Tamworth constituency has an unusually large number of homes worth upwards of £7.5 million. It's a pretty safe bet those votes won't be going to Labour nor probably the Lib Dems. For some people it's not about government competency or otherwise.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Seems a nice bloke

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-election-candidate-posted-chart-31206989

When you think who the former MP was as well, you’d guess they had no chance, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they retain the seat.

Vox-pop interviews on the street don't usually convey that we have a well-educated and intelligent population.....

[JamesWales]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Apparently the Tamworth constituency has an unusually large number of homes worth upwards of £7.5 million. It's a pretty safe bet those votes won't be going to Labour nor probably the Lib Dems. For some people it's not about government competency or otherwise.

Not sure where you get that from.

No data for the enormously wealthy, but in 2019, £70,000+ households were the least likely to vote Tory.

Of those groups, 40% voted Tory compared to 51% who voted Labour and Lib Dem.

Given the way polls have changed you can probably expect two thirds of wealthiest households to vote either Labour or Lib Dem i guess.

Scroll to the bottom below..

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Labour pretty steady at 1.3-1.4 (~70% chance) to win Tamworth but that will only really be people taking a stab on internal polling and obviously anything could happen on the day.

Mid Beds looks very frustrating for proponents of tactical voting to remove the Tories. Tories have drifted out to roughly even money to win as internal polling indicates its bloody close but will likely be a ~ 30/30/20 Tory/Lab/Lib split.

Probably most likely outcome seems to be 1 con/1 lab but either could win both, seems more likely that labour win both than the tories.

As for 'weak opposition'...

Tamworth is probably a seat they will need to win for a majority so is a decent signal as to their overall strength but even in 97/01 it was by no means a super safe seat so any win is good

Mid Beds is a seat Labour never win so despite this being a by-election and all the usual things that go along with that, a Tory loss there would be a clear signal to the Tories that Sunak's message is yet to cut through at all.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Not sure where you get that from.

No data for the enormously wealthy, but in 2019, £70,000+ households were the least likely to vote Tory.

Of those groups, 40% voted Tory compared to 51% who voted Labour and Lib Dem.

Given the way polls have changed you can probably expect two thirds of wealthiest households to vote either Labour or Lib Dem i guess.

Scroll to the bottom below..

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019...neral_election

So potentially 'remainer' votes I guess? Not worth really thinking about as turnout changes so much in by-elections

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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Labour pretty steady at 1.3-1.4 (~70% chance) to win Tamworth but that will only really be people taking a stab on internal polling and obviously anything could happen on the day.

Mid Beds looks very frustrating for proponents of tactical voting to remove the Tories. Tories have drifted out to roughly even money to win as internal polling indicates its bloody close but will likely be a ~ 30/30/20 Tory/Lab/Lib split.

Probably most likely outcome seems to be 1 con/1 lab but either could win both, seems more likely that labour win both than the tories.

As for 'weak opposition'...

Tamworth is probably a seat they will need to win for a majority so is a decent signal as to their overall strength but even in 97/01 it was by no means a super safe seat so any win is good

Mid Beds is a seat Labour never win so despite this being a by-election and all the usual things that go along with that, a Tory loss there would be a clear signal to the Tories that Sunak's message is yet to cut through at all.

The opposition is weak .....2 poor leaders .....and split ....2 parties to vote for

If Labour get an increase of their vote that's no good if the people who could have voted to change the government stick with the liberals and smaller parties

It's always been the problem and always will be

Weak opposition , 2 main opposition parties so vote is split , fptp voting system

If starmer does get in he needs to get PR sorted

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

The opposition is weak .....2 poor leaders .....and split ....2 parties to vote for

If Labour get an increase of their vote that's no good if the people who could have voted to change the government stick with the liberals and smaller parties

It's always been the problem and always will be

Weak opposition , 2 main opposition parties so vote is split , fptp voting system

If starmer does get in he needs to get PR sorted

You are just saying the same things over and over again, but the evidence doesn't back it up. If Labour win Mid Beds or come close (something that Blair led opposition did not manage in 97), it is a huge reach (/nonsense) to call them weak.

I would have PR tomorrow, because people would be more incentivised to vote for ideas rather than against them and parties wouldn't be incentivised to be vague when fighting an election. I thought this when the Tories were massively ahead and still feel the same way now that Labour are massively ahead.

You seem to think the answer is PR but then also that the answer is for lablib to merge into some awful beige catch all, it doesn't make sense.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Vox-pop interviews on the street don't usually convey that we have a well-educated and intelligent population.....

I was on about the Tory candidate who told poor voters that they could f*ck off, but I take your point.

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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

You are just saying the same things over and over again, but the evidence doesn't back it up. If Labour win Mid Beds or come close (something that Blair led opposition did not manage in 97), it is a huge reach (/nonsense) to call them weak.

I would have PR tomorrow, because people would be more incentivised to vote for ideas rather than against them and parties wouldn't be incentivised to be vague when fighting an election. I thought this when the Tories were massively ahead and still feel the same way now that Labour are massively ahead.

You seem to think the answer is PR but then also that the answer is for lablib to merge into some awful beige catch all, it doesn't make sense.

It's either or , it's painfully obvious

PR and one centre and left of centre party making regular deals or a stronger opposition in a bland, if you want , new centrist party

Or we can go on as we are

Which in the current state may still lead to a conservative government , even with a small minority

I ain't going to spend the rest of my life hoping for that , if the next election is yet another wet fart I will vote green and let the centre and left argue with each other

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

It's either or , it's painfully obvious

PR and one centre and left of centre party making regular deals or a stronger opposition in a bland, if you want , new centrist party

Or we can go on as we are

Which in the current state may still lead to a conservative government , even with a small minority

I ain't going to spend the rest of my life hoping for that , if the next election is yet another wet fart I will vote green and let the centre and left argue with each other

Labour are a rock solid 14-20 points ahead in the polls and have been for some time now. It might close, it cant widen much more but the idea of a merger has never been further off the table than it is right now.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

Labour win both by elections on huge swings which give them small majorities in both cases. In Tamworth, it looks like votes going to three other right wing parties cost the Tories the seat.

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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

To win both is great for Labour

But they are sure to put their foot in it at some point

And please get rid of annalise dodds and the pompous Islington woman