The Liberal Democrats

[JamesWales]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

First bit

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/12/uk-economy-shrank-unexpectedly-in-march

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64450882

Second bit

https://news.sky.com/story/oecd-says...0from%205.4%25.

https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/uk/uk-inflation-rate-to-be-highest-among-g7-nations-predicts-paris-based-oecd/articleshow/103789660.cms

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/why-does-uk-have-such-painful-inflation-problem-2023-05-26/

Granted inflation has stabilised the last month.

I've moved on from Brexit ages ago. I'm pointing our what the UK has experienced since and still of the opinion it was economic hari kiri.

First bits are out of date. It was all revised up recently. The UK outstripping France and Germany.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-grows-02-q2-2023-2023-09-29/

Germany itself is experiencing a recession.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2023/08/28/germanys-epic-recession-continues-economy-still-cant-catch-a-break/

Inflation peaks at different points but basically everyone peaked at circa 10-11%. Before the peak our inflation was generally lower (a month or so behind) and so after we were higher for longer.

Inflation is a recurring problem, no doubt, but it is is everywhere and it may be linked to higher wages. As mentioned our wage growth v inflation ratio has been better than most.

Unemployment - lower here. Stock exchange - generally better here. Value of pound - generally worse here. The pattern goes on. It's mixed but nothing points to any kind of negative impact, let alone a disaster.

No one disputes tough times, but it's the same everywhere. It amazes me how many pro-europeans don't seem to follow what's happening there!

[Jordi Culé]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

First bits are out of date. It was all revised up recently. The UK outstripping France and Germany.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-grows-02-q2-2023-2023-09-29/

Germany itself is experiencing a recession.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2023/08/28/germanys-epic-recession-continues-economy-still-cant-catch-a-break/

Inflation peaks at different points but basically everyone peaked at circa 10-11%. Before the peak our inflation was generally lower (a month or so behind) and so after we were higher for longer.

Inflation is a recurring problem, no doubt, but it is is everywhere and it may be linked to higher wages. As mentioned our wage growth v inflation ratio has been better than most.

Unemployment - lower here. Stock exchange - generally better here. Value of pound - generally worse here. The pattern goes on. It's mixed but nothing points to any kind of negative impact, let alone a disaster.

No one disputes tough times, but it's the same everywhere. It amazes me how many pro-europeans don't seem to follow what's happening there!

"The data ... does not change the big picture that the economy has lagged behind all other G7 countries aside from Germany and France since the pandemic. And that's before the full drag from higher interest rates has been felt," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

Source:

Your Reuters link.

Cheers butt.

[JamesWales]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

"The data ... does not change the big picture that the economy has lagged behind all other G7 countries aside from Germany and France since the pandemic. And that's before the full drag from higher interest rates has been felt," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

Source:

Your Reuters link.

Cheers butt.

So it's the ones outside the EU doing better then?!

Far more than just the G7 to compare it to as well.

Unfortunately - and I know you want it to be there -but the evidence simply isn't there.

[Jordi Culé]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

So it's the ones outside the EU doing better then?!

Far more than just the G7 to compare it to as well.

Unfortunately - and I know you want it to be there -but the evidence simply isn't there.

I'll play your game as I'm bored and you obviously can't read what I've actually posted.


Let's look at the GDP forecasts for countries in and outside the G7.

I'm now feeling really optimistic by these predictions.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/686147/gdp-growth-europe/

[JamesWales]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

I'll play your game as I'm bored and you obviously can't read what I've actually posted.


Let's look at the GDP forecasts for countries in and outside the G7.

I'm now feeling really optimistic by these predictions.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...growth-europe/

No, lets look at real data instead. Because it has outperformed estimates at every turn.

[Jordi Culé]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

No, lets look at real data instead. Because it has outperformed estimates at every turn.

We have looked at real data.

You keep on saying it’s either now not relevant or didn’t happen?

You even started to tell me what I was thinking.

It’s good to hear that the UK economy has outperformed estimates at every turn and the broad sun lit uplands are just around the corner though because evidence suggests it’s been a bit of a shiitshow.

[JamesWales]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

We have looked at real data.

You keep on saying it’s either now not relevant or didn’t happen?

You even started to tell me what I was thinking.

It’s good to hear that the UK economy has outperformed estimates at every turn and the broad sun lit uplands are just around the corner though because evidence suggests it’s been a bit of a shiitshow.

You presented old data, that has since been amended - I gave the link to that. Then predictions. Maybe they'll be true, but they haven't been so far.

The real data just doesn't show what you want it to.

And yes, Covid, Ukraine, all huge deals but the fact is some Europeans countries are in recession, ours isn't. It's not sunlit uplands but leaving the EU hasn't meant we perform worse than our peers..it just doesn't.

You can keep trying to find ways to show it (and I have no idea why you would be so keen to anyway, it's our country afterall) but the balance of data simply doesn't show it. Labour will never take us back in the EU, cos they know it's not worth it.

[Jordi Culé]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

You presented old data, that has since been amended - I gave the link to that. Then predictions. Maybe they'll be true, but they haven't been so far.

The real data just doesn't show what you want it to.

And yes, Covid, Ukraine, all huge deals but the fact is some Europeans countries are in recession, ours isn't. It's not sunlit uplands but leaving the EU hasn't meant we perform worse than our peers..it just doesn't.

You can keep trying to find ways to show it (and I have no idea why you would be so keen to anyway, it's our country afterall) but the balance of data simply doesn't show it. Labour will never take us back in the EU, cos they know it's not worth it.

Jimbo, you bounded into this thread pontificating that some were using political rhetoric, no evidence mind and using your own forecasts as conclusive proof that all is well.

You've also tried to construct the narrative of other people's opinions who have produced evidence in support of the points made. There's also appears an ability to acknowledge points made actually did happen.

You've now determined any suggestive forecasts from other organisations as not really worth considering, although your opening gambit is a forecast and opinion.

Your points seem to be made up of uhhhmmm... political rhetoric and forecasts? My interpretation obviously.

Within your posts there is also a fair sprinkling of condescension and amazement that others can't interpret the statistics available similarly to your obvious greater knowledge on the subject.

It's a gift really. Hope you don't fall off that pedestal you've placed yourself? It'll be a long drop butt.

[Swiss Peter]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

I suspect you're wasting your time, Jordi.

Chucking out a few indicators of current economic performance (which in themselves are skewed to fit the point being made) seems to me to betray an inability (or unwillingness) to see a much bigger longer-term picture.

[JamesWales]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

Jimbo, you bounded into this thread pontificating that some were using political rhetoric, no evidence mind and using your own forecasts as conclusive proof that all is well.

You've also tried to construct the narrative of other people's opinions who have produced evidence in support of the points made. There's also appears an ability to acknowledge points made actually did happen.

You've now determined any suggestive forecasts from other organisations as not really worth considering, although your opening gambit is a forecast and opinion.

Your points seem to be made up of uhhhmmm... political rhetoric and forecasts? My interpretation obviously.

Within your posts there is also a fair sprinkling of condescension and amazement that others can't interpret the statistics available similarly to your obvious greater knowledge on the subject.

It's a gift really. Hope you don't fall off that pedestal you've placed yourself? It'll be a long drop butt.

What I've done is said that the balance of evidence points to there being no impact of Brexit on economic indicators.

And I've said that because it's the truth and what the data shows us.

You keep bouncing back and I'll keep saying it, cos it's true, even if you wish it wasn't!

Believe it or not, it is actually good news that dire predictions didn't come true.

And yes, I do find it amazing sometimes how some will try and dance around the evidence before them.

[JamesWales]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

I suspect you're wasting your time, Jordi.

Chucking out a few indicators of current economic performance (which in themselves are skewed to fit the point being made) seems to me to betray an inability (or unwillingness) to see a much bigger longer-term picture.

Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment, wage, growth, inflation, stock markets etc? This is hardly cherry picked stuff.

It's been seven years - a long term picture is emerging and it isn't what you said would happen.

[Jordi Culé]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment, wage, growth, inflation, stock markets etc? This is hardly cherry picked stuff.

It's been seven years - a long term picture is emerging and it isn't what you said would happen.

Seven years?

[JamesWales]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

Seven years?

Since we voted to leave the EU. I know right..feels more like 27!

[Jordi Culé]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

What I've done is said that the balance of evidence points to there being no impact of Brexit on economic indicators.

And I've said that because it's the truth and what the data shows us.

You keep bouncing back and I'll keep saying it, cos it's true, even if you wish it wasn't!

Believe it or not, it is actually good news that dire predictions didn't come true.

And yes, I do find it amazing sometimes how some will try and dance around the evidence before them.

Your last point, we can both agree on.

[Jordi Culé]

Re: The Liberal Democrats

Since we voted to leave the EU. I know right..feels more like 27!

Ahhh right, when we voted, not when we actually left.