By elections.

[the other bob wilson]

Two gains for Labour overnight. Kingswood with a majority (around 2;500) of less than the number of Reform party voted. Wellingborough was, according to Sir John Curtice, a terrible result for the Tories with their vote falling by 38 per cent and Reform getting 13 per cent of the vote- Labour’smajority was more than 6,000.

[NinianOpinion1927]

Re: By elections.

Two gains for Labour overnight. Kingswood with a majority (around 2;500) of less than the number of Reform party voted. Wellingborough was, according to Sir John Curtice, a terrible result for the Tories with their vote falling by 38 per cent and Reform getting 13 per cent of the vote- Labour’smajority was more than 6,000.

First Ukip now Reform. I thought you said Tories fall into line? :D
Reform may cost the Tories this coming election. Richard Tice saying he wants to destroy the party. For the rėght, Things have to get worse before they get better as the current Conservatives have lost their way.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: By elections.

The splitting of the right wing vote into tory and reform is great news for Labour

[Rjk]

Re: By elections.

The splitting of the right wing vote into tory and reform is great news for Labour

even without that it is a disaster for the Tories, these were 18k and 11k majorities.
they are finished

[NinianOpinion1927]

Re: By elections.

even without that it is a disaster for the Tories, these were 18k and 11k majorities.
they are finished

I agree, Reform are going to inflict wounds at the GE but they'll probably lose without Reform. It's still a very large swing required due to the size of Johnson's win in 2019?

[superfeathers]

Re: By elections.

Is it just me or is sending out the ridiculous Rees-mogg as one of the first to defend the result, or actually anywhere near a journalist at any point in time ahead of the election, a bad move?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: By elections.

Is it just me or is sending out the ridiculous Rees-mogg as one of the first to defend the result, or actually anywhere near a journalist at any point in time ahead of the election, a bad move?

I think Rees mogg was there because his seat is the neighbouring one to Kingswood?

But either way he's a complete and utter cock

[pipster]

Re: By elections.

I agree, Reform are going to inflict wounds at the GE but they'll probably lose without Reform. It's still a very large swing required due to the size of Johnson's win in 2019?

The above plus the SNP will over in Scotland , Labour majority over about 100 I reckon
It's 1997 all over again - a new dawn has broken said Tony Blair, 13 years later, an illegal war, 75% of school rebuilding budget spent without a brick being laid, PFI debt through the roof, 6 billion NHS project failed etc etc and then Gordon comes in to finish off the job by de regulating the banks - all the moneys gone etc, so in come Cameron / Clegg etc 13 years of the same plus a global pandemic and the Ukraine war, flapping from side to side, people get fed up - in comes the new Sir Keir 'saviour' - rinse and repeat. Angela 'scum' Raynor as deputy will be interesting to see how she gets on....

[NinianOpinion1927]

Re: By elections.

I'll be supporting Reform Party as the best of a bad bunch. We need to reform voting and implement proportional representation.

[ninian opinian]

Re: By elections.

Sunak’s new podium catchphrase, “Stop the VOTES”!!!

The longer the clown holds out on calling an election, the more seats they will loose.

[Gofer Blue]

Re: By elections.

Take a closer look at the actual numbers of votes cast in these by-elections and compare these with votes cast in the last General Election in 2019. You will rarely, if ever, see these data compared, as the media tend to get obsessed with % swings. If you do "drill down" (which seems to be the latest trendy expression) into the data the results may surprise you. It's something that I like to take a look at.

Wellingborough: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 51,931 (i.e. 64.3% of 80,765).
Of these 13,737 voted Labour and 32,277 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 30,145 turned out to vote, that's 21,786 less than in 2019.
Of these 13,844 voted Labour and 7,408 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote was more or less the same but the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?



Kingswood: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 49,314 (i.e. 71.5% of 68,972).
Of these 16,492 voted Labour and 27,712 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 24,905 turned out to vote, that's 24,409 less than in 2019.
Of these 11,176 voted Labour and 8,675 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote yesterday was actually less than it was in the 2019 General election but again the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or once again that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?

[jon1959]

Re: By elections.

Take a closer look at the actual numbers of votes cast in these by-elections and compare these with votes cast in the last General Election in 2019. You will rarely, if ever, see these data compared, as the media tend to get obsessed with % swings. If you do "drill down" (which seems to be the latest trendy expression) into the data the results may surprise you. It's something that I like to take a look at.

Wellingborough: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 51,931 (i.e. 64.3% of 80,765).
Of these 13,737 voted Labour and 32,277 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 30,145 turned out to vote, that's 21,786 less than in 2019.
Of these 13,844 voted Labour and 7,408 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote was more or less the same but the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?



Kingswood: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 49,314 (i.e. 71.5% of 68,972).
Of these 16,492 voted Labour and 27,712 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 24,905 turned out to vote, that's 24,409 less than in 2019.
Of these 11,176 voted Labour and 8,675 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote yesterday was actually less than it was in the 2019 General election but again the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or once again that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?

I don't believe that the result was only due to Tory voters staying at home (the Tory Line) or that this is overwhelming evidence of public confidence in Labour.

I expect the polls to narrow as we get closer to an election, but for Starmer's Labour to win a comfortable majority (maybe not the landslide that recent polls have suggested).

There is some evidence of non-Tory voters staying home too, and some evidence of Tory to Labour switchers. But the main conclusion is that the Tories have 'lost' a lot of their 2019 vote and this is more than a mid term protest.

The cost of living, the NHS and care system, and an 'out of touch' government are constants - but Gaza and Brexit will bite the Tories too (and maybe Labour in some places - giving a fillip to the Greens and nationalists).

Maybe not as fantastic a night for Labour as they are claiming (good though) but disastrous for the Tories.

[Gofer Blue]

Re: By elections.

I don't believe that the result was only due to Tory voters staying at home (the Tory Line) or that this is overwhelming evidence of public confidence in Labour.

I expect the polls to narrow as we get closer to an election, but for Starmer's Labour to win a comfortable majority (maybe not the landslide that recent polls have suggested).

There is some evidence of non-Tory voters staying home too, and some evidence of Tory to Labour switchers. But the main conclusion is that the Tories have 'lost' a lot of their 2019 vote and this is more than a mid term protest.

The cost of living, the NHS and care system, and an 'out of touch' government are constants - but Gaza and Brexit will bite the Tories too (and maybe Labour in some places - giving a fillip to the Greens and nationalists).

Maybe not as fantastic a night for Labour as they are claiming (good though) but disastrous for the Tories.

I also think the Tories will lose the general election but the margin will not be as huge as Labour seem to assume is a given. Folk will vote for Labour candidates not because they have some magic formula that is going to put everything right but because they are not Tories!

[the other bob wilson]

Re: By elections.

I also think the Tories will lose the general election but the margin will not be as huge as Labour seem to assume is a given. Folk will vote for Labour candidates not because they have some magic formula that is going to put everything right but because they are not Tories!

I think it’s something like 50/50 whether people vote for a party or whether they vote against one (I’m definitely in the latter camp these days) and I reckon it’s always been like that.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: By elections.

Take a closer look at the actual numbers of votes cast in these by-elections and compare these with votes cast in the last General Election in 2019. You will rarely, if ever, see these data compared, as the media tend to get obsessed with % swings. If you do "drill down" (which seems to be the latest trendy expression) into the data the results may surprise you. It's something that I like to take a look at.

Wellingborough: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 51,931 (i.e. 64.3% of 80,765).
Of these 13,737 voted Labour and 32,277 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 30,145 turned out to vote, that's 21,786 less than in 2019.
Of these 13,844 voted Labour and 7,408 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote was more or less the same but the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?



Kingswood: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 49,314 (i.e. 71.5% of 68,972).
Of these 16,492 voted Labour and 27,712 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 24,905 turned out to vote, that's 24,409 less than in 2019.
Of these 11,176 voted Labour and 8,675 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote yesterday was actually less than it was in the 2019 General election but again the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or once again that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?

Wether tory voters stay at home , switch to reform or Labour's vote doesn't increase the fact remains that another 2 tory seats have fallen

I will be voting Labour because I can't stand the conservatives, not because I think starmer is the second coming

In fact the conservatives should be grateful that Labour picked starmer as leader as someone else , with half a personality and some charisma and steel would have wiped the Tories out for a generation

As it is a 20 seat majority would be a joyful event after the last 14 years of nonsense