By elections.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: By elections.

I also think the Tories will lose the general election but the margin will not be as huge as Labour seem to assume is a given. Folk will vote for Labour candidates not because they have some magic formula that is going to put everything right but because they are not Tories!

Which is exactly what some people will do in voting tory because they don't like Labour!

[PontBlue]

Re: By elections.

I also think the Tories will lose the general election but the margin will not be as huge as Labour seem to assume is a given. Folk will vote for Labour candidates not because they have some magic formula that is going to put everything right but because they are not Tories!

I think they'll almost certainly lose to Labour but now Reform are draining away the far right vote from the Tories it could be a hammering.

Looks like the Lib Dems could be finished as there doesn't seem to be any way for them to come back from propping up Cameron's Tories in 2010.

[Heathblue]

Re: By elections.

Starmer and his foot soldiers just need to shut their mouths and the election is won. They only damage themselves when they open their gobs.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: By elections.

I agree, Reform are going to inflict wounds at the GE but they'll probably lose without Reform. It's still a very large swing required due to the size of Johnson's win in 2019?

2019 was a mandate to get get Brexit done, but Boris decided to lock us in our homes instead.

[pipster]

Re: By elections.

Take a closer look at the actual numbers of votes cast in these by-elections and compare these with votes cast in the last General Election in 2019. You will rarely, if ever, see these data compared, as the media tend to get obsessed with % swings. If you do "drill down" (which seems to be the latest trendy expression) into the data the results may surprise you. It's something that I like to take a look at.

Wellingborough: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 51,931 (i.e. 64.3% of 80,765).
Of these 13,737 voted Labour and 32,277 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 30,145 turned out to vote, that's 21,786 less than in 2019.
Of these 13,844 voted Labour and 7,408 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote was more or less the same but the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?



Kingswood: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 49,314 (i.e. 71.5% of 68,972).
Of these 16,492 voted Labour and 27,712 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 24,905 turned out to vote, that's 24,409 less than in 2019.
Of these 11,176 voted Labour and 8,675 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote yesterday was actually less than it was in the 2019 General election but again the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or once again that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?

They mentioned this on Radio4 last - and it seems by looking at the data the Tory vote never turned out or had protest with the Reform party - the Labour turn out hasnt changed.... it will be an interesting result at the GE to see if the Tory vote comes back.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: By elections.

Lots of guessing dressed up as analysis going on in this thread.

[pipster]

Re: By elections.

Lots of guessing dressed up as analysis going on in this thread.

What is your guess, dressed up as analysis then ?

The figures:- For Wellingborough
13,737 voted Labour in 2019 General Election
13,844 voted Labour in 2024 by by-election
So an increase 104 votes

So Labour need to find out why there wasnt a massive increase in their vote and the conservatives need to find out where their vote went to - which seems pretty obvious to me.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: By elections.

What is your guess, dressed up as analysis then ?

The figures:- For Wellingborough
13,737 voted Labour in 2019 General Election
13,844 voted Labour in 2024 by by-election
So an increase 104 votes

So Labour need to find out why there wasnt a massive increase in their vote and the conservatives need to find out where their vote went to - which seems pretty obvious to me.

I don't have access to the information required to make an educated guess, maybe the parties do via private polling in the runup or just an indication from party members canvassing on the ground in each seat.

Unless you know how the demography of these voters and how they have have moved between parties since the last election, you are just pissing in the wind. This is especially true this time around as the political landscape has changed so much since (Corbyn, Boris, Brexit etc.)

I tend to only really look at MRP polling as sample size is huge (compared to traditional polls) and that methodology has had very good results. The most recent one has the conservatives in major major trouble.

[Gofer Blue]

Re: By elections.

Lots of guessing dressed up as analysis going on in this thread.

The data I presented is from the UK Parliament website. I made no attempt to analyse the data fully, just present it. I am always interested in the actual number of people that voted for a particular party, less so in "swings" which don't tell you much in these instances.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: By elections.

The data I presented is from the UK Parliament website. I made no attempt to analyse the data fully, just present it. I am always interested in the actual number of people that voted for a particular party, less so in "swings" which don't tell you much in these instances.

Fair enough but the following is pretty loaded imo:

'Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?'

It doesn't indicate anything, it is a count of everybody who decided to vote. We don't know how they voted last time or how people who stayed at home would have voted if they decided to.

Plenty of people in the media will try to draw conclusions because it makes a better headline than 'this is how people who decided to vote, voted'.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: By elections.

Take a closer look at the actual numbers of votes cast in these by-elections and compare these with votes cast in the last General Election in 2019. You will rarely, if ever, see these data compared, as the media tend to get obsessed with % swings. If you do "drill down" (which seems to be the latest trendy expression) into the data the results may surprise you. It's something that I like to take a look at.

Wellingborough: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 51,931 (i.e. 64.3% of 80,765).
Of these 13,737 voted Labour and 32,277 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 30,145 turned out to vote, that's 21,786 less than in 2019.
Of these 13,844 voted Labour and 7,408 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote was more or less the same but the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?



Kingswood: 2019 General Election. Turnout (in terms of people eligible to vote) was 49,314 (i.e. 71.5% of 68,972).
Of these 16,492 voted Labour and 27,712 voted Tory.

In yesterday's by-election only 24,905 turned out to vote, that's 24,409 less than in 2019.
Of these 11,176 voted Labour and 8,675 voted Tory.

Note: the Labour vote yesterday was actually less than it was in the 2019 General election but again the Tory vote collapsed. Does that indicate a massive swing to Labour or once again that a huge number of Tory voters decided to stay home?

Also maybe I have read more than you about the numerous by-elections over the last few years but the coverage has continually contained plenty about 'stay at home'/'low turnout' so what you are saying is nothing new and selling it as some uncovered gem in the context of a media blackout/conspiracy is pretty bizarre.

Headlines will always be about the swing, it's a good headline.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: By elections.

Also maybe I have read more than you about the numerous by-elections over the last few years but the coverage has continually contained plenty about 'stay at home'/'low turnout' so what you are saying is nothing new and selling it as some uncovered gem in the context of a media blackout/conspiracy is pretty bizarre.

Headlines will always be about the swing, it's a good headline.

Wether the Tories lose a by election from their own voters staying at home or people turning to Labour or turning to reform or a combination of these , they lost

In the same way labour when in power would lose by elections

[the other bob wilson]

Re: By elections.

What is your guess, dressed up as analysis then ?

The figures:- For Wellingborough
13,737 voted Labour in 2019 General Election
13,844 voted Labour in 2024 by by-election
So an increase 104 votes

So Labour need to find out why there wasnt a massive increase in their vote and the conservatives need to find out where their vote went to - which seems pretty obvious to me.

Why can’t I get the term “desperate times, desperate measures” out of my mind while reading the above?

You’d be better off trying to find out why the Toryvote in recent by elections has collapsed so much more under Sunak compared to Major pre 1997.

https://kellnerpolitics.com/2024/02/16/ignore-the-spin-what-the-by-election-results-really-tell-us/

[NinianOpinion1927]

Re: By elections.

I don't have access to the information required to make an educated guess, maybe the parties do via private polling in the runup or just an indication from party members canvassing on the ground in each seat.

Unless you know how the demography of these voters and how they have have moved between parties since the last election, you are just pissing in the wind. This is especially true this time around as the political landscape has changed so much since (Corbyn, Boris, Brexit etc.)

I tend to only really look at MRP polling as sample size is huge (compared to traditional polls) and that methodology has had very good results. The most recent one has the conservatives in major major trouble.

You can't make an educated guess from the information already available? Or maybe you don't like the conclusion so you'd rather act daft

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: By elections.

You can't make an educated guess from the information already available? Or maybe you don't like the conclusion so you'd rather act daft

The conclusion is clear

2 by elections this week

2 defeats for the conservatives

Get back in the box