george galloway

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: george galloway

I want Starmer to win primarily because the Tories have dragged politics so far into the gutter over the last few years that they need to go. There were always scandals and politicians that were in it for themselves but the near daily dog whistle shit stirring and blatant lying is on another level. No guarantees that will improve but I have a feeling it will.

It's a struggle to see what labour party you want sludge. From memory you hated Corbyn and both the 2017/19 manifestos, now you hate the fact that they have a strategy to not commit to policy (because it tends to get picked apart in the press). Struggling to see what you mean when you say that people deserve better.

My political preference is absolutely not clouding my judgement here, all evidence points towards a decent sized labour win and suggestions that the Rochdale result is a sign of some massive shift or problem for Starmer are misguided based on everything else we are seeing.

People deserve a decent opposition

We clearly havnt got that as you yourself allude to

I don't think the high ratings in the polls are transferring onto the ballot box

I want the Tories out but a lot of voters seem to be lukewarm , incredible given the mess we are in

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: george galloway

And Galloway looks like an utter wannabee gangster sad case in that silly hat

[Eric Cartman]

Re: george galloway

People deserve a decent opposition

We clearly havnt got that as you yourself allude to

I don't think the high ratings in the polls are transferring onto the ballot box

I want the Tories out but a lot of voters seem to be lukewarm , incredible given the mess we are in

I don't know how you could draw that conclusion given we have recently seen by-elections with enormous (near record/record) swings.

So what would make a 'decent opposition'?

[pipster]

Re: george galloway

I don't know how you could draw that conclusion given we have recently seen by-elections with enormous (near record/record) swings.

So what would make a 'decent opposition'?

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

For what it's worth all this has the same feel as both 1992 and 1997 election. 1992 Kinnock was parading around as the next PM - and lost. Blair wasnt so presumptuous and won by a landslide as Major had all the charisma of a wet sponge.

I think Sludge is probably right - minority win to Sir Keir or Lib/Lab pact.

Lab will blame everything on the previous Govt - and so the cycle begins - all over again.

Personally I'd love to see Drakeford or Born Guessing as PM to really demonstrate what a sh1tshow really looks like

[Dave Blue]

Re: george galloway

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

For what it's worth all this has the same feel as both 1992 and 1997 election. 1992 Kinnock was parading around as the next PM - and lost. Blair wasnt so presumptuous and won by a landslide as Major had all the charisma of a wet sponge.

I think Sludge is probably right - minority win to Sir Keir or Lib/Lab pact.

Lab will blame everything on the previous Govt - and so the cycle begins - all over again.

Personally I'd love to see Drakeford or Born Guessing as PM to really demonstrate what a sh1tshow really looks like

You aren’t satisfied that the current shitshow is leagues ahead than anything we have seen before? What would it take? Astonishing.

[Rjk]

Re: george galloway

Anyone who thinks Labour will get a decent majority is living on the moon

I predict a hung parliament with Labour having just about the most seats and forming either a minority government or a coalition

He's absolutely hopeless , the Labour party is hopeless and they have shot themselves in the foot again

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

[jon1959]

Re: george galloway

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

Wrong. Although that is almost word-for-word what Tory Central Office sent out as speaker notes after they bombed!

The evidence from the previous two by elections was that a lot of 2019 Tory voters stayed at home, but that a significant number switched (most of them to Labour). Many previous Labour voters stayed at home too. That is what happens in by elections with reduced turn out when both major parties are toxic or uninspiring (sometimes both).

It was certainly not the case that everyone who voted Labour in 2019 turned out and that the swing was down to Tory voters who stayed at home to fire a warning shot at Sunak before they trot out to vote for him again at the next General Election.

[Rjk]

Re: george galloway

Wrong. Although that is almost word-for-word what Tory Central Office sent out as speaker notes after they bombed!

The evidence from the previous two by elections was that a lot of 2019 Tory voters stayed at home, but that a significant number switched (most of them to Labour). Many previous Labour voters stayed at home too. That is what happens in by elections with reduced turn out when both major parties are toxic or uninspiring (sometimes both).

It was certainly not the case that everyone who voted Labour in 2019 turned out and that the swing was down to Tory voters who stayed at home to fire a warning shot at Sunak before they trot out to vote for him again at the next General Election.

they are clutching at straws, everyone knows the tories are heading for a big defeat the way things currently stand

[jon1959]

Re: george galloway

Anyone who thinks Labour will get a decent majority is living on the moon

I predict a hung parliament with Labour having just about the most seats and forming either a minority government or a coalition

He's absolutely hopeless , the Labour party is hopeless and they have shot themselves in the foot again

Weather fantastic up here on the moon. Great views of Planet Earth!

The most recent polls (including the mega YouGov poll in the Telegraph of 14,000 people) have projected a Labour majority at the next GE of anything from 100 to 170 seats. A landslide.

I don't expect that. Even these Tories led by Sunak should be able to squeeze the Labour lead. But not even Labour lead by Starmer can blow it completely. I expect Labour to have 'a decent majority' of 30-50 seats.

I still intend to vote for the party led by the racist, cowardly, serial liar - but obviously without enthusiasm. Just opting for the least worst capable of forming a government. And voting for a sitting Labour MP who has been mostly OK.

The Galloway/Gaza effect could be a sizeable factor in narrowing Labour's lead. I don't see him holding Rochdale or any other insurgent candidates winning seats - but they will reduce the Labour vote in dozens of constituencies. And in response to the dull commentators who see it all through the prism of British Muslims - the disgust at Labour's Gaza (in fact Israel/Palestine) position goes way beyond one faith-based community. It won't be enough to change the outcome, but it could affect the size of the majority.

The threat of lost votes may even be enough for Labour's cynical number crunchers to change their position a bit more - but not from any point of principle or out of conviction.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: george galloway

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...tion_main.html

I have my doubts that the opinion polls , which the electoral calculus is based on , are accurate

I think the labour vote is over estimated and the tory vote ......incredible that people still back them .....is shy

I predict a very small labour majority at best

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: george galloway

Weather fantastic up here on the moon. Great views of Planet Earth!

The most recent polls (including the mega YouGov poll in the Telegraph of 14,000 people) have projected a Labour majority at the next GE of anything from 100 to 170 seats. A landslide.

I don't expect that. Even these Tories led by Sunak should be able to squeeze the Labour lead. But not even Labour lead by Starmer can blow it completely. I expect Labour to have 'a decent majority' of 30-50 seats.

I still intend to vote for the party led by the racist, cowardly, serial liar - but obviously without enthusiasm. Just opting for the least worst capable of forming a government. And voting for a sitting Labour MP who has been mostly OK.

The Galloway/Gaza effect could be a sizeable factor in narrowing Labour's lead. I don't see him holding Rochdale or any other insurgent candidates winning seats - but they will reduce the Labour vote in dozens of constituencies. And in response to the dull commentators who see it all through the prism of British Muslims - the disgust at Labour's Gaza (in fact Israel/Palestine) position goes way beyond one faith-based community. It won't be enough to change the outcome, but it could affect the size of the majority.

The threat of lost votes may even be enough for Labour's cynical number crunchers to change their position a bit more - but not from any point of principle or out of conviction.

I refer the rt hon colleague to my previous answer

Very small labour majority , and that's me being optimistic because I want the Tories out

[Eric Cartman]

Re: george galloway

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

It doesn't tell you that though. It might tell you that but you don't have enough information to be able to say and you are effectively saying there is no such thing as a swing voter which we know to be false. 1960s to 1980s there was far more party loyalty with about 20% of people reporting that they voted for a different party from one election to the next but this has been steadily increasing and is now in the 30-40% range every election.

Blair/Cameron were successful because they could win votes from the other side. Boris managed it from a combination of Brexit and Corbyn.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: george galloway

I have my doubts that the opinion polls , which the electoral calculus is based on , are accurate

I think the labour vote is over estimated and the tory vote ......incredible that people still back them .....is shy

I predict a very small labour majority at best

Take a look at how well MRP polls do especially when they are taken near the time of the election. There are so many cases now of MRP being correct in predicting safe seats being turned over while people say 'not possible, we are always X here'

Agree that the regular polls can be suspect but if you look at them within the margin of error/poll of polls to flatten out noise, they tend to do pretty well.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: george galloway

Weather fantastic up here on the moon. Great views of Planet Earth!

The most recent polls (including the mega YouGov poll in the Telegraph of 14,000 people) have projected a Labour majority at the next GE of anything from 100 to 170 seats. A landslide.

I don't expect that. Even these Tories led by Sunak should be able to squeeze the Labour lead. But not even Labour lead by Starmer can blow it completely. I expect Labour to have 'a decent majority' of 30-50 seats.

I still intend to vote for the party led by the racist, cowardly, serial liar - but obviously without enthusiasm. Just opting for the least worst capable of forming a government. And voting for a sitting Labour MP who has been mostly OK.

The Galloway/Gaza effect could be a sizeable factor in narrowing Labour's lead. I don't see him holding Rochdale or any other insurgent candidates winning seats - but they will reduce the Labour vote in dozens of constituencies. And in response to the dull commentators who see it all through the prism of British Muslims - the disgust at Labour's Gaza (in fact Israel/Palestine) position goes way beyond one faith-based community. It won't be enough to change the outcome, but it could affect the size of the majority.

The threat of lost votes may even be enough for Labour's cynical number crunchers to change their position a bit more - but not from any point of principle or out of conviction.

There's no doubt that regular polling applied at a constituency level really really struggles with big leads, I saw one seat calculation that said the Tories would win like 3 seats, which would be hilarious seeing them huddled in a corner of the commons but obviously isnt going to happen.

As you say though the larger sample MRP polls are pretty scarily accurate even at a constituency level.

Regular logic says that the polls will tighten but the Tories are such a mess right now I just see them putting more and more people off them the nearer we get to an election. Labour should be making a lot out of them not holding the election in may while the councils are taking place, a big portion of the population hates voting and the Tories have made sure they have to go and do it twice.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: george galloway

Being a swing voter is trendy, it makes people feel like they are some objective genius who isn't blindly loyal.