Iran in direct attack on Israel

[truthpaste]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

I know God is all bullshit and belief in him is at the core of this complete mess

If I could wipe out the idiots on both sides who fight with guns and bombs instead of their mind I would

Yes we can see that

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

It is never possible to argue this subject with anyone on a sensible basis here in the UK, Europe or the US because of the political and religious divide:

- Aetheists and Islamics (typically pro Palestinian) versus Jews and Christians (typically pro Israel)

- Political (Nationalists & Left, typically pro-Palestinian and anti-imperial, versus Conservatives, typically Imperialist or Zionist sympathies)

My personal view is that the subject is too complex for most folk to understand, nor be interested in. But it is a fascinating one. To understand this subject well, you need an understanding of history, geo-politics (regional and strategic global alliances), energy markets, local issues and conflicts, nuclear objectives of middle east countries, and financing of militias.

If you are coming in from the religious/political angles above it is easy to see why people cannot see what is happening, nor even predict it. I have predicted a regional war to my friends since the first Houthi attack on ships in the Suez back in end of Oct / start November, and made a good sum on oil and gold trading, as a result.

This is why I am surprised at what is happening today is a surprise to people. It is possible, with an open mind, with a few weeks of reading to get a good handle on it all, but people prefer to “stay in their lane” and wave a flag. So as explaining all the above will take far too long, the only sensible thing to discuss is “What Now?” and “What Next?”

What is the current situation?

Well Iran have been financing Houthis, Lebanon, Syrian and Iraqi militias with the reversal of the oil embargo, with the 16bn dollars Biden gave back to them. Now Iran has designs on Middle East dominance, but are experts in financing and using others to do their fighting. They are master diplomats through history and this is their approach (similar to China). They don’t do open scrapping unless dragged into it directly (Iran v Iraq). They are excellent strategists.

But as Hamas were eliminated and Yemeni infrastructure destroyed, Iran knew that a far richer Hezbollah were the next Israeli target. So as of last night, Iran have attacked WITH Hezbollah and other operatives, due to the attack on the embassy. Justified? Probably. But this is the the crossing of the rubicon because this is the first point that Iran has dropped the mask. It is now out and out Iran v Israel - a situation they tried to avoid.

What does that mean?

Well given that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard explicitly wants to “eliminate Israel from the map”, and Israel sees Iran as the regional threat, unless there is a ceasefire we now have an open straight fight. They are both committed to eliminating each other. That is the short term phase we have now entered.

What Next?

The choices facing us are now close to the same as WWII. It seems that aside from an unlikely ceasefire, four sceanrios are on the table:

1. Do little. Let Iran and Israel duke it out. This would mean a drawn out war between two rich rivals, and further disruption of oil markets, and rising inflation (and thus interest rates) - no doubt with financial and military support from their masters (US/Europe for Israel, China/Russia and Lebanon, Syria, Yemen for Iran, who are already allies.

2. A further escalation regionally, where lines between Sunni and Shia muslims are dran. With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman and Egypt versus Israel, with Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraq. A full regional war, with even bigger hits on inflation and interest rates.

CORRECTION: A mis-type here. Meant to say “With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman and Egypt WITH Israel, and Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraq. Or something that vertly closely resembling those alliances.

3. Europe and US conduct an all out attack on Iran, but Russia and China, more focused on Ukraine and Taiwan, conserve their money and allow the US and Europe exhaust itself as it did in World War Two, on the basis that they do not fancy losing a war, military and face over Iran. Russia calculates that it has coped without Iranian oil as it has its own. China already has gas an oil from Russia so they will cope too. So they leave Iran sink or swim and live to fight another day, calculating they can win Ukraine and Taiwan if the US and Europe exhausts itself v Iran.

4. A full phase World War III. China and Russia openly back Iran with full military and financial capability, with all above parties going for it.

Now as I have thought since November, a ceasefire with Hamas nor Iran is feasible. So one of the above is will happen. I think it will be .1 or .3.

If the above happens, and a ceasefire not possible, then as a result the effects will be a scorching upwards of inflation (shipping lanes further hit, costs of food, clothing, commodities rip upwards), and a second run on higher interest rates - as I predicted in 2022/23. But as this will be more drawn out, a longer wave of rate rises, into the 10-15% range. Oil, gas and gold will keep pumping up. Food costs will be harrowing. Bank of England, The Fed and ECB will stop making silly predictions of falling rates, and house prices keep falling. Manufacturing and heavy Industry, reliant on oil, will be hurt. High interest rates due to war debt will put pressure on sterling and Euro, and goverment budgets cut due to high interest rates payments. See the 1970s for similar effects from Yom Kippur war. I also predict further social strife as pro-Iran protesters become prominent, with social division and newswires discussing more anti-Semitism and anti-Muslim sentiment.

All you can do is figure out the probabilities, and then what it means for inflation, interest rates, currencies, stocks, bonds, commodities (energies, metals and food) and gold. Because these will mean big changes. There is nothing we can win from arguing, so is all we can do.

Correction in point 2 above

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

Correction in point 2 above

CORRECTION 2: With Israel, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Oman, Jordan and Egypt versus Israel, with Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and a big sect of Iraqi Shia muslims.

The point here is that Sunnis and Shias hate each other at the power level. So Israel does have Sunni muslim country support.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

As to what I would do if I were the West? Well in the short term the highest probability is that Iran says “Israel - we were just warning you, leave us alone”. Israel agrees. Short term dies down and Israel keep focusing on Hamas

But my suspicion is that Hezbollah will then be IDF’s next target and there will come a point where once Yemeni, Hamas and Hezbollah threats are eliminated, then Iran comes into focus again. Because this conflictis baked in to the objectives of Iran and Israel.

Why? Since the 1979 removal of The Shah in Iran, and the crazy Shia muslim wing of leadership installed, The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) has had three stated high level objectives:

1. The elimination of Israel from the map

This will always be resisted by Israel

2. The removal of US and Europe from influence in the Middle East

This is not acceptable to The West or we would lose energy access, all be bankrupt from high interest rates and inflation, and no access to Suez shipping lanes, hitting global trade and ability to defend Mediterranean waters from Russian, Chinese or Iranian naval threats)

3. To spread Shia muslim fundamentalism across the Middle East

This is not acceptable and an existential threat to Sunni muslims in the middle east such as Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi.

What should we do?

War is clearly not good. But nor is a long term ceasefire possible, with them strategically opposed. My preference is:

1. Re-install Trump’s deal to ban Iran selling oil in open markets: kills their financing. Previously this brought Iran to its economic knees and de-stabilised its leadership. Do this. Enough is enough.

2. US and UK/Europe take out Iranian Revolutionary Guard, currently outside Iran

3. Once financing killed off, and IRG taken out (like with Saddam’s revolutionary guard) the Iranian Shia leadership will be out of money and out of military support and exposed to internal civil war. Financially support a Sunni group of the people to overthrow the Shias, resulting in a progressive Sunni regime, where women’s rights are respected and a more tolerant friendly mixed society and government in operation - as it was pre 1979.

If I were the UK government, I would propose that three step plan to the US and G7 and get cracking. I am no expert, but that seems a plan to re-install long term peace and stability, without direct war. It does risk tension with China and Russia who are backing them, but that tension is there anyway. It is a cheaper way of trying to solve the problem it seems.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

Yes we can see that

Give me the button

[stevo]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

2. The removal of US and Europe from influence in the Middle East

This is not acceptable to The West or we would lose energy access, all be bankrupt from high interest rates and inflation, and no access to Suez shipping lanes, hitting global trade and ability to defend Mediterranean waters from Russian, Chinese or Iranian naval threats)
.

Thank you for your long, informative posts.

Can you explain this bit above? Why would we lose access to the Suez and impact our energy if we stopped backing Israel?

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

Maybe so, if Iran wasn't behind Hezbollah (not to mention Hamas), because since October 8 2023 it has fired more than 3,000 rockets at Israeli civilian and military targets from Lebanon. Additionally, the terror group has launched more than 600 anti-tank missiles and drones at Israeli territory. So let's not pretend that the Syria attack from Israel was phase one.

Let’s not pretend October 7 was either then.

[stevo]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

- Aetheists and Islamics (typically pro Palestinian) versus Jews and Christians (typically pro Israel)

- Political (Nationalists & Left, typically pro-Palestinian and anti-imperial, versus Conservatives, typically Imperialist or Zionist sympathies)
.

I have observed this to be generally the case but I don’t understand why it is so. Am I being thick here?

[truthpaste]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

I have observed this to be generally the case but I don’t understand why it is so. Am I being thick here?

No, not thick at all. Unfortunately this +4000 year old conflict can't be fully understood purely via secular history, science and politics. There are kingdoms involved here opposing each other that will continue to do so until the final chapter of human history has been written.

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

Thank you for your long, informative posts.

Can you explain this bit above? Why would we lose access to the Suez and impact our energy if we stopped backing Israel?

Probably the Red Sea, Arabian Sea routes.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

No, not thick at all. Unfortunately this +4000 year old conflict can't be fully understood purely via secular history, science and politics. There are kingdoms involved here opposing each other that will continue to do so until the final chapter of human history has been written.

Yes, but I also highlighted in my comments, energy policy and global trade, shipping routes (for navy access & trade), as well as religion (dominant muslim factions such as Shia v Sunni, let alone Arab v Jew) and local tribalism add to it. Hugely complex and hugely unstable by the fact that all these factors are changing month to month, let alone year to year. Anyone who is looking for a Northern Ireland type settlement and think we will "solve" this is either an extreme optimist, an idiot or a liar. In my view, this will always be with us in our lifetime and beyond. The average Joe probably considers the events through what the BBC & Sky News tell them, what their political allegiances tell them to side with, how their friends think, how they feel about religion, or how they feel about humanity. But humanity or "their people" isn't what the people behind this war are thinking, and that is the saddest part.

The first time I realised it wasn't what the news was telling me, or what was right or wrong, was a book on oil trade and energy market conflict. Like many of us, I suspected that greed was at play, but did not know the how's and why's. The Blair invasion of Iraq around 2003 got my goat, and I started asking questions about it. When a relative of mine who worked at the high end in oil (and was engaged to an American oil 'diplomat') tipped me off I read the book he recommended by an oil-insider and oil analyst. After I read it I was on holiday with him in the Caribbean and he asked what I thought. I said "Sick. Pretty ruthless too.". He said "Yeah, I work in that industry and I keep hearing stories all the time, but my other half's job confirms it. This game is ugly. I will do a few more years, take the money and get out of it and retire." He did.

When I read that book I was blown away and chased the primary sources, of which one was a gas & oil map of pipelines, as I was learning about doing oil trading back around 2004-2006. As always some pipelines are being built, others in construction, and others in consideration. These days there are several Oil & gas maps online, but you should look at them alongside a normal map and see why some countries will be fought over, and others not. So by looking at the map below you can see how important being friendly to certain countries is, in order to maintain trade and energy stability. Consider the routes to pipe oil and gas from source to European and Asian markets. Consider how military can move their navies. Consider where your goods come from and where they go to be sold. If you have an IQ over 60, you can begin to see where the real motivations are, and why some countries go to war a lot, or why they get special exemptions.

https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-oil-infrastructure-tracker/tracker-map/

The Suez is important to get oil exports to Europe cheaply. Shipping is always the cheapest form of logistics, over trucking or air freight. Trade also goes through Suez. The US & West need a friendly leader in charge of Egypt and Israel owning that land free of challenge. If so, the Suez should present a fairly friendly path for all global trade to reach US and Europe. Oil can be pumped from Saudi via pipelines through friendly pipelines in friendly countries, or via cargo ships out of Suez. Providing these pipelines for oil and gas are protected, or trade routes through Suez, then inflation stays stable, so should interest rates, and life is The West is easier. If these are threatened the opposite happens. Look at The Suez canal history in 1950s and Yom Kippur War of 1970s, and see the effects on inflation, historic interest rates and our economy if these are not secure. In addition, if Israel lose their territory to Iran, then being next to Egypt, Egypt may also be the next target to fall under Iranian influence, and Shia militias or Muslim Brotherhood people re-emerging inside Egypt, and further trouble for global trade and energy market stability.

If you want to throw in some leftfield ideas, google the Ben Gurion canal. The Ben Gurion canal was a project in the 1960s where the Israelis wanted to help the West by competing with Suez by having a separate canal. This would make shipping prices more competitive, but also make money for Israel through shipping fees. Some speculate that Israel's recent moves to clear out Gaza Strip is connected to eliminating threats to a renewed Ben Gurion canal project, now that Israel is far richer.

https://www.newarab.com/news/what-israels-ben-gurion-canal-plan-and-why-gaza-matters

I also speculate (and see it more likely) that Israel sees an opportunity to straighten the Saudi pipeline right through West Bank and out to the sea via Israeli ports. Israel has already made some big gas finds offshore so the port of Haifa and maybe another one will boom in trade soon as refineries refine the stuff nearby. At the moment, it pulls back and goes into Lebanon, but Hezbollah are pirating the pipeline and taking money to arm themselves, so the line is a target. If you look at the oil pipeline link I put further up, it would suit Saudi interests (pro-Israeli) and Israel (commercial fees) to get rid of that Z-bend in the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" pipe, make it shorter and cut out Iran-supporting Lebanon by pushing the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" in a shorter straight line through West Bank and out to sea. But it would be currently too risky for Israel and Saudi to build it, with Hamas and Israel-hating Palestinians in there. "Clear them out and build it" is what I think they are up to. The Ben Gurion canal may come later, but I think the Saudi pipeline is the real driver here.

In summary, and I hope it answers a few questions, trying to view this through partisan lines will see the average reader making error after error in forecasts. Unfortunately, the Middle East is a chessboard for big player chess strategy, and oil, trade and maritime logistics driving key decisions and wars. What matters to local people there is a side hobby to the US and West, China, Russia, Israel and Iran. Everyone else in the region is being played by these big players - yes in the name of greed and profit, but also securing and growing their own military and trade empires.

Nothing changes. This no different to Russia-Turkey war over the Bosphorus shipping lanes, Russia-Japan war over sea access, Spanish and Portuguese invasions of Latin American for gold and silver, British invasion of India for silk, cotton precious metals and staging posts for Asian conquest, Second World War German occupation of Greece for maritime naval access, Austro-Hungarian pre-World War One attack on Serbia over the Sanjak railway route, or Russian invasion of Afghanistan (to get near the Pakistan sea access). History is repeating itself. Trade, security of logistical routes, naval / military routes, money, empire. Old ruses, new excuses. Only the players and details change.

[JamesWales]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

I think we all know that Israel's response to Oct 7th has been brutal on the people of Gaza. I guess they would argue that is Hamas' fault, both for their strike on Israel and then for hiding in amongst the population and making fleeing more difficult etc. I don't doubt there is a lot of truth in that, but if innocent people are dying, frankly who cares who is doing it? Israel without question lost some moral authority in its response.

That said, my initial thought this morning was one of sympathy. It's the only real democracy in the region. It's surrounded by extremist, undemocratic, violent, mysoginistic, borderline racist states, several of which want it to cease to exist and don't teach their own populations about the reasons why it was created after the war.

I know it is far, far from innocent, but none the less, It annoys me to see it have to take that from such an ideologically repugnant state as Iran

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

By looking at the map you an also understand Turkey more. Turkey is caught between the interest of itself, Europe, Russia and the Middle East.

1. What does Turkey want? To be part of the EU and to not take a flood of muslims from Middle East. Turkey wants the financial benefits of being in the EU and and the security it brings. European people don't want Turkey in the EU because of it huge muslim population.

2. What does Russia want? It wants its military ships to be able to get out of South West Russia or Crimea, and out through the Bosphorous, to able to give it leverage to threaten oil and shipping lanes of US and European interests. The US and Europe do not want Russia's ships coming through, so currently they don't. In return the EU will not allow Turkey into the EU but it allows it to forward on Syrians and the rest of them from Middle East, and into Europe. So that was Europe's deal to keep Turkey from allowing Russian naval ships through.

3. What does Ukraine want? Money from oil pipelines coming around the Caucuses. Does Turkey help US and Europe with Ukraine? No. Why would they? Currently they want to earn the pipeline fees by expanding the "Ceyhan-Kırıkkale Oil Pipeline" into Bulgaria and be the go-between for Middle East and European oil. Russia does not want this as they prefer to pipe oil and gas into Europe and lock the distribution revenues themselves, so Russia and Turkey have natural baked in there.

Turn your eyes to Morocco soon. Morocco have big gas finds. The UK and Europe now want to create direct pipelines for this into Spain, to reduce gas dependency on Russia and Middle East. Morocco will be a friend of Europe soon that's for sure. Best keep them onside

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

There are heavier sources to read, but a basic one here on Wiki, which explains the division between Sunni and Shia muslims:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_c...%20in%20Turkey.

You can follow the primary sources and speeches referenced here. But basically, Shias MUST have strict Islamic fundamentalists religious leaders as head of state, and the Koran defines the laws (Iran, Taliban in Afghanistan etc. ) This is why in these countries women get raped, stoned, prevented from working etc. Because it doesn't follow the Koran and it breaks the law. And because of that, these countries wage holy war on Christians, Jews and want to convert or oppress Sunnis. It is not as simple as saying "If you are from Country X you are this type". Because reality is that most Arab countries have mixed tribes. What matters is who are the elite and power brokers in that country - that defines their behaviour.

Sunni muslims can have a royal family or elected government (Saudi, Bahrain, Turkey, Morocco, Egypt usually). Islam and aspects of the Koran feature in life but do not define all the rules and values. You don't see people justifying rape or stoning of women, or preventing women working with this sect.) These are often friendlier countries to The West as they are generally more relaxed.

[stevo]

Re: Iran in direct attack on Israel

By looking at the map you an also understand Turkey more. Turkey is caught between the interest of itself, Europe, Russia and the Middle East.

1. What does Turkey want? To be part of the EU and to not take a flood of muslims from Middle East. Turkey wants the financial benefits of being in the EU and and the security it brings. European people don't want Turkey in the EU because of it huge muslim population.

2. What does Russia want? It wants its military ships to be able to get out of South West Russia or Crimea, and out through the Bosphorous, to able to give it leverage to threaten oil and shipping lanes of US and European interests. The US and Europe do not want Russia's ships coming through, so currently they don't. In return the EU will not allow Turkey into the EU but it allows it to forward on Syrians and the rest of them from Middle East, and into Europe. So that was Europe's deal to keep Turkey from allowing Russian naval ships through.

3. What does Ukraine want? Money from oil pipelines coming around the Caucuses. Does Turkey help US and Europe with Ukraine? No. Why would they? Currently they want to earn the pipeline fees by expanding the "Ceyhan-Kırıkkale Oil Pipeline" into Bulgaria and be the go-between for Middle East and European oil. Russia does not want this as they prefer to pipe oil and gas into Europe and lock the distribution revenues themselves, so Russia and Turkey have natural baked in there.

Turn your eyes to Morocco soon. Morocco have big gas finds. The UK and Europe now want to create direct pipelines for this into Spain, to reduce gas dependency on Russia and Middle East. Morocco will be a friend of Europe soon that's for sure. Best keep them onside

Sounds like a strong argument to get Turkey into the EU asap.