Sky Prediction Of General Election

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

spot on, there was a debate on radio4 where the 'pollsters' all said pretty much the same thing. Locals turnout too low to predict, people vote for different reasons, and that you really need to look at the differential ie if Party A have not increased their previous vote but Party B have decreased their vote - it just means the other hasnt turned up - which is different when it comes to a GE.

I'll say it again for about the 20th time on here, you need more information to be able to form that assumption. Something like 30-40% of people report that they change the party they vote for from one election to the next so say for instance Party A got 10,000 votes last time and 10,000 votes this time, you are just guessing if you form the assumption that these must be the same people. Now if you have some kind of data around who they voted for last time, you have some kind of chance although that is self reported and people have a habit of lying if they voted for somebody they now don't like.

Any pollster that says any different is not worth listening to because they are just trying to find something to say to sound interesting.

[pipster]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

I think “Nationalism” is too simplistic. It really depends what Nationalism flavour. If you mean Plaid’s current view of Nationalism=Independence I would agree at the moment. Demographics and lack of track record means they won’t get it.

But the SNP’s Nationalism does work in the sense they provided a non-independence platform for a Scottish party to run Scotland in the Scottish interests, and Scottish priorities. Sure they want independence but that was rejected. Scots of all hues: Socialists, centrists and Tartan Tories have backed the SNP to sort Scottish problems. So that formof Nationalism works for sure.

To me, that form of Nationalism could work for Wales, and to a degree Welsh Labour provide that. But in Wales there are not alternatives. Plaid’s critical error is asking for the keys to the Ferrari (independence) when they haven’t even established themselves as a credible party of Welsh government. So if they barked less about independence, and instead focused on effective local government, they could compete. Once they compete and establish themselves, only then can they ask for the keys - when a more indy-supportive youngsters become mainstream and cynical-elders pass away.

How are the SNP getting on ? - domestically - drug use, alcoholism, diet, obesity. They want rid of Westminster and want to under the control of a parliament even further away in Brussels. Wee Nicky husband arrested on a fraud charge, with Kranky junior not far behind into the dock. SNP are doing Labours job for them.

If we Wales would be better off in terms of GDP then we would have a chance. But being led by Plaid in charge - oh my giddy aunt. They are bent on every level, puts Gething to shame

[Hilts]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Id be wary of polls. Loads of Tories are too embarrassed to admit they are Tories.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

How are the SNP getting on ? - domestically - drug use, alcoholism, diet, obesity. They want rid of Westminster and want to under the control of a parliament even further away in Brussels. Wee Nicky husband arrested on a fraud charge, with Kranky junior not far behind into the dock. SNP are doing Labours job for them.

If we Wales would be better off in terms of GDP then we would have a chance. But being led by Plaid in charge - oh my giddy aunt. They are bent on every level, puts Gething to shame

If GDP outweighed hope and the human addiction to feeling superior then the UK would still be in the EU. Nationalism doesn't seem to be dictated by economics but by emotion.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

How are the SNP getting on ? - domestically - drug use, alcoholism, diet, obesity. They want rid of Westminster and want to under the control of a parliament even further away in Brussels. Wee Nicky husband arrested on a fraud charge, with Kranky junior not far behind into the dock. SNP are doing Labours job for them.

If we Wales would be better off in terms of GDP then we would have a chance. But being led by Plaid in charge - oh my giddy aunt. They are bent on every level, puts Gething to shame

Pipster.

I was not commenting on whether the SNP are good or bad, or even if they are delivering to their programme. But they have secured power and dominated for a decade. That ability to win power is the ultimate sign of how ‘strong’ a party is. How ‘good’ or ‘bad’ they are is then a matter of opinion.

In the case of Plaid they have never won a majority, or even close to it. That is where they can learn from the SNP. As an aside I agree that SNP are in a hole, but at least they have shown they can be a sustained political force.

[life on mars]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Well the 20% lead is now 9% based on stupid council bin controlling elections.

In some votes 11% of folk bothered so much for protestor voting.

Labour need the North East and Scotland to get a better majority.

Traditional Labour voters aren't aligned to Sir Kiers rich metropolitan party ,he knows that working-class no longer align he knows he has to be part Tory.

I think Boris would burst his bubble hence the relentless attacks they aimed at him .

He also knows Angela doesn't fit the champagne well off middle class Labour voters so under the bus she goes as they water down her workers rights, along with net zero, and anything else he can reverse or water down .

Lite Blair Tory government we will get .

He is no Blair , that man destroyed the Tories.. Sir Kier won't. ..

[life on mars]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

How are the SNP getting on ? - domestically - drug use, alcoholism, diet, obesity. They want rid of Westminster and want to under the control of a parliament even further away in Brussels. Wee Nicky husband arrested on a fraud charge, with Kranky junior not far behind into the dock. SNP are doing Labours job for them.

If we Wales would be better off in terms of GDP then we would have a chance. But being led by Plaid in charge - oh my giddy aunt. They are bent on every level, puts Gething to shame

Nationalist parties just trade on people's hatred of other things , they have no other agenda .

Independence in Scotland is dead they got feck all to talk about now, corrupt as the Tories in my book .

Wales well what a strange country, loves being Welsh for sporting matters fearful of Nationalism via Plaid so they hide behind safe bet Labour. Aspiration is not a Welsh thing is it Unless you count in winning a Grand Slam or qualifying for the Euros , źzzzzzzzzzz

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Well the 20% lead is now 9% based on stupid council bin controlling elections.

In some votes 11% of folk bothered so much for protestor voting.

Labour need the North East and Scotland to get a better majority.

Traditional Labour voters aren't aligned to Sir Kiers rich metropolitan party ,he knows that working-class no longer align he knows he has to be part Tory.

I think Boris would burst his bubble hence the relentless attacks they aimed at him .

He also knows Angela doesn't fit the champagne well off middle class Labour voters so under the bus she goes as they water down her workers rights, along with net zero, and anything else he can reverse or water down .

Lite Blair Tory government we will get .

He is no Blair , that man destroyed the Tories.. Sir Kier won't. ..

Starmer doesn’t need to destroy the Tories, they’re doing it themselves.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Looks like Labour has won the West Midlands Mayoral contest by as little as a thousand votes.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Looks like Labour has won the West Midlands Mayoral contest by as little as a thousand votes.

And London

That West Midlands major was a polished turd

[JamesWales]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

I learnt tonight that Andy Street ( the now former west midlands mayor) is the boyfriend of Michael Fabricant.

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Lets just be clear, Labour are doing terribly, so awfully, despite all the results which show otherwise.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

I learnt tonight that Andy Street ( the now former west midlands mayor) is the boyfriend of Michael Fabricant.

That Micheal Fabricant is a right cant

[Doucas]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

Me to - lot's of Labour spending recklessly it'll be just like the good ol days of Blair / Brown throwing money at large public sector projects which are just a financial black hole. Should be even easier with Rayner and Starma at the wheel :)

Which was the last government to not run a deficit? I'll give you a clue, it wasn't your lot.

Investing is good for the economy, which is why the UK is in such a state.

[jon1959]

Re: Sky Prediction Of General Election

I'm baffled about the results of the local elections after looking through various different media sources.

The BBC say: Tories - 474 seats; Labour + 186

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732

The Guardian says: Tories - 397 seats; Labour + 232

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/may/02/local-elections-2024-full-council-results-for-england

They disagree on the seat totals for all the other parties too!

Locally in Sheffield the BBC say Labour gained 2; the Lib Dems lost 2, Independents (Gaza) gained 1 and the Tories lost their only seat and are again wiped out. But the local online paper (Sheffield Tribune) did a long and detailed post election analysis yesterday which claimed Labour gained 5 seats (and disagreed with the BBC on most of the other group totals too).

Bizarre!