Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

[az city]

Re: Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

I'm thinking around 120 now.

[JamesWales]

Re: Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

I'm thinking around 120 now.

More likely lower than that than higher I would say..

[Hilts]

Re: Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

I think there will be a major shock.

Hung Parliament. Labour coalition with the Libs.

Maybe the best thing. Stop the Tories going further right with the Reform loonies.

[az city]

Re: Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

My final bid is precisely 100 seats.

[JamesWales]

Re: Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

Okay here's my guess:

Tories : 115
Greens: 1
Lib Dems: 50
SNP: 20.
Reform: 3
Labour: Whatever the rest is (minus N.Ireland.

Share (in GB)
Lab 38%
Cons 23%
Reform 16%
Lib Dems 13%
Greens: 5%
SNP: 3%
Others: 2%

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

Okay here's my guess:

Tories : 115
Greens: 1
Lib Dems: 50
SNP: 20.
Reform: 3
Labour: Whatever the rest is (minus N.Ireland.

Share (in GB)
Lab 38%
Cons 23%
Reform 16%
Lib Dems 13%
Greens: 5%
SNP: 3%
Others: 2%

Seems reasonable to me. The scales on that recent MRP were interesting in the sense that it was predicting the Tories to be the opposition but they actually had a wider range and lower floor than the Lib Dems, suggesting that a bad night for the Tories looks really really bad.

My seat Hertford and Stortford (maybe not my seat much longer as I am soon to be evicted under section 21, thank you Tories for saying you would ban that and then not doing it) has been Tory since it's inception and under that MRP it was predicted to go to labour by 9%. I am not quite believing that if I am honest. Tories could do better than expected if the models just didn't really handle their drop in popularity past a certain point.

[JamesWales]

Re: Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

Seems reasonable to me. The scales on that recent MRP were interesting in the sense that it was predicting the Tories to be the opposition but they actually had a wider range and lower floor than the Lib Dems, suggesting that a bad night for the Tories looks really really bad.

My seat Hertford and Stortford (maybe not my seat much longer as I am soon to be evicted under section 21, thank you Tories for saying you would ban that and then not doing it) has been Tory since it's inception and under that MRP it was predicted to go to labour by 9%. I am not quite believing that if I am honest. Tories could do better than expected if the models just didn't really handle their drop in popularity past a certain point.

Sorry to hear about your housing situation Eric. Where may you move to? I hope you have some options?

[Eric Cartman]

Re: Over/under on Tory MPs after the election

Sorry to hear about your housing situation Eric. Where may you move to? I hope you have some options?

Cheers.

It's ridiculously expensive round here, I'm too old to go live in a room in a house share. Potentially in with family for a bit (fortunate in that sense) until I work out what to do. Will not be homeless, unlike some people who get kicked out in this way.