2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

[MOZZER2]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

[QUOTE=pipster;5518536]Dont keep us in suspense - what worldwide events have you seen that would make him call a July election ?

Global issues like WW3 with the super powers and the Middle East for example .only today Putin has signed a treaty with that nutter from North Korea . Over 50 countries around the world want to join the BRICS nations so they say which is basically headed up by Russia and China.

We are in very serious scary times maybe he wants to jump ship before it really kicks off !

As many people are saying if he wanted good economic news to win an election why not wait until October for example if inflation flattens out over a period of time and interest rates are cut etc makes no sense

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

The guilt markets ��

phone typo gilts

Although she should be feeling a bit of guilt!

[pipster]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

[QUOTE=MOZZER2;5518544]

Dont keep us in suspense - what worldwide events have you seen that would make him call a July election ?

Global issues like WW3 with the super powers and the Middle East for example .only today Putin has signed a treaty with that nutter from North Korea . Over 50 countries around the world want to join the BRICS nations so they say which is basically headed up by Russia and China.

We are in very serious scary times maybe he wants to jump ship before it really kicks off !

As many people are saying if he wanted good economic news to win an election why not wait until October for example if inflation flattens out over a period of time and interest rates are cut etc makes no sense

I thought it more along the lines of - Wimbledon, Euros (Engerland...) to get the feel good buzz and then the Olympics (which I know is after the election but still gives an air of national pride) compared doom riddled Starma chops trying to tell us the sky is about to fall in and only he can save us...)

I personally dont think Sunak's decision it is do with anything else - but that is just and only an opinion.

[pipster]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

Well if this wasn't written by a tory I am a tree

I'd go for an old oak with a yellow ribbon round it (yawn but I'll say it again) so far - Foot, Kinnock, Blair, (Iraq mate executed so no longer voting for that war monger), Lib Dem in 2005, Lib Dem 2010 (tactical vote to kick white goods Brennan off his perch), Cameron 2015, Conservative since then - basically anyone but the anti semitic crew. Cant Remember the Ed Ballsup election campaign - but it wasn't for Labour.
Locally - I go for if they are any good and or if i like the Council policies. Suffice to say Cardiff Council Labour are a complete joke, led by 2 wannabe Tories who although clever have no experience.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

I'd go for an old oak with a yellow ribbon round it (yawn but I'll say it again) so far - Foot, Kinnock, Blair, (Iraq mate executed so no longer voting for that war monger), Lib Dem in 2005, Lib Dem 2010 (tactical vote to kick white goods Brennan off his perch), Cameron 2015, Conservative since then - basically anyone but the anti semitic crew. Cant Remember the Ed Ballsup election campaign - but it wasn't for Labour.
Locally - I go for if they are any good and or if i like the Council policies. Suffice to say Cardiff Council Labour are a complete joke, led by 2 wannabe Tories who although clever have no experience.

Well that all sounds very romantic

But I don't believe you

[Keyser Soze]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

[QUOTE=MOZZER2;5518544]

Dont keep us in suspense - what worldwide events have you seen that would make him call a July election ?

Global issues like WW3 with the super powers and the Middle East for example .only today Putin has signed a treaty with that nutter from North Korea . Over 50 countries around the world want to join the BRICS nations so they say which is basically headed up by Russia and China.

We are in very serious scary times maybe he wants to jump ship before it really kicks off !

As many people are saying if he wanted good economic news to win an election why not wait until October for example if inflation flattens out over a period of time and interest rates are cut etc makes no sense

Like many others I have also been mulling this one as to why he went early. These are the pros and cons of July v November as I see it:

Advantages of July

1. The elderly (Cons voters) more likely to come out. They don't tend to turn out as much in Winter

2. He saw a threat in Farage and wanted to deny Reform the time to build up funds and a campaign, and to plan. At the time Reform did not have candidates lined up.

3. He calculated that Farage would be away in the summer on the Trump campaign

4. England perceived to do well - perceived feelgood factor. I don't buy this. (Anyone voting for an incumbent party based on feelings of their national team need their brains examined)

5. The BRICS countries will perform their first "dollar break" in October 2024, trading major commodities via other means of settlement, which is deadly for the dollar, and will affect the FedEx, SWIFT, and Target2 systems that process the payments. It will also cause a flood of selling of US Treasuries. This has been announced in a few minor financial publication and small corners of the financial press, but is not a major headline yet and certainly unknown to the vast majority of the general public. Given the dollar is doing rather well, it could potentially cope with a fall in the dollar short term, but the US Bonds sell-off is likely to be a very big problem. US Banks, major pension funds across the world, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds and many mega-corporations hold US Treasuries. This is because Basel III rules enforced shortly after the GFC, which forces/"incentivizes" them to hold them but also they pay out more than cash in yield, and they are a far more liquid market than bank accounts in mid to large tier banks. If US Bonds values take a hit then the mark-to-market value will take a hit, credit markets and system liquidity would be affected, and I think has the potential for another banking crisis - certainly European due to their US exposures, but other regions too I suspect. Not only are the BRICS a problem, but India and Japan are also reducing their dollar holdings because if they sense the BRICS are pulling the cord then they don't want to be holding US Treasuries either. This will be a huge theme in Q3/Q4 of 2024 and certainly 2025. By then the cat will be out of the bag. Calling an election in July means he can campaign without this issue in view of the general public.

You can google and find this story yourself about BRICS and de-dollarization, but the magic date for the starting gun is certainly October 2024. I have been preparing for this since 2016 as it has been well telegraphed to those watching closely, and big money has been building up positions to sidestep it. The opportunity to profit from it has been running and building up for years, but end of 2024/25 the trades will really crack open and go ballistic. This will be the once in 80-100 year event I keep talking about where the dominant US, its army and the dollar will be challenged by the BRICS. I think that Sunak, connected to big hedge funds, sees this coming and probably is happy to leave politics hence his lack of energy. He speculated against the GBP during the Truss debacle and there is no law to speculate on bonds and currencies (as there is in stocks) - I suspect he will run back to the hedge fund industry and capitalise on this October 2024 de-dollarization. It is a trading opportunity of a lifetime on a scale that none of us has ever seen, and there are a few ways for any person to make an absolute gigantic killing on this one in a century event. He will be one of those people I am certain.

6. Immigration - the UK has failed on this and the numbers are spinning out of control. He wouldn't want this narrative to get worse

7. Foreign Policy - he would likely call July if he believes the situation of Israel, Ukraine or Taiwan will improve. Given the BRICS will be getting stronger, it is highly likely he perceived the situation would be worse. It shouldn't reflect on him, but it certainly isn't a plus

8. The issue with Thames Water is likely to worsen post summer

9. Given that interest rates are already around 5% and they were around 1% a few years back, a whole slew of mortgages are rolling off around Sep/October, and mortgages will be 2-3 times higher for many. Not a good "Feel" for the voters. Better go now


Advantages of November

1. He would have to assume .5 will not happen, and a greater priority place on inflation and interest rates falling. Given the mainstream press is ignoring .4 above, people seem to think this is the bigger story. It isn't. .

2. If Sunak even cared about being re-elected, November would give him time to earn the credits for .1 above and give time to feed the message to the public

3. He would have to believe the Rwanda scheme will be delivered. I don't think even he believes it.

4. A wing and a prayer that polling would improve. It is just worsening under him, so he must have seen the chances of this are near zero.

[Keyser Soze]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

[QUOTE=Keyser Soze;5518613]

Like many others I have also been mulling this one as to why he went early. These are the pros and cons of July v November as I see it:

Advantages of July

1. The elderly (Cons voters) more likely to come out. They don't tend to turn out as much in Winter

2. He saw a threat in Farage and wanted to deny Reform the time to build up funds and a campaign, and to plan. At the time Reform did not have candidates lined up.

3. He calculated that Farage would be away in the summer on the Trump campaign

4. England perceived to do well - perceived feelgood factor. I don't buy this. (Anyone voting for an incumbent party based on feelings of their national team need their brains examined)

5. The BRICS countries will perform their first "dollar break" in October 2024, trading major commodities via other means of settlement, which is deadly for the dollar, and will affect the FedEx, SWIFT, and Target2 systems that process the payments. It will also cause a flood of selling of US Treasuries. This has been announced in a few minor financial publication and small corners of the financial press, but is not a major headline yet and certainly unknown to the vast majority of the general public. Given the dollar is doing rather well, it could potentially cope with a fall in the dollar short term, but the US Bonds sell-off is likely to be a very big problem. US Banks, major pension funds across the world, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds and many mega-corporations hold US Treasuries. This is because Basel III rules enforced shortly after the GFC, which forces/"incentivizes" them to hold them but also they pay out more than cash in yield, and they are a far more liquid market than bank accounts in mid to large tier banks. If US Bonds values take a hit then the mark-to-market value will take a hit, credit markets and system liquidity would be affected, and I think has the potential for another banking crisis - certainly European due to their US exposures, but other regions too I suspect. Not only are the BRICS a problem, but India and Japan are also reducing their dollar holdings because if they sense the BRICS are pulling the cord then they don't want to be holding US Treasuries either. This will be a huge theme in Q3/Q4 of 2024 and certainly 2025. By then the cat will be out of the bag. Calling an election in July means he can campaign without this issue in view of the general public.

You can google and find this story yourself about BRICS and de-dollarization, but the magic date for the starting gun is certainly October 2024. I have been preparing for this since 2016 as it has been well telegraphed to those watching closely, and big money has been building up positions to sidestep it. The opportunity to profit from it has been running and building up for years, but end of 2024/25 the trades will really crack open and go ballistic. This will be the once in 80-100 year event I keep talking about where the dominant US, its army and the dollar will be challenged by the BRICS. I think that Sunak, connected to big hedge funds, sees this coming and probably is happy to leave politics hence his lack of energy. He speculated against the GBP during the Truss debacle and there is no law to speculate on bonds and currencies (as there is in stocks) - I suspect he will run back to the hedge fund industry and capitalise on this October 2024 de-dollarization. It is a trading opportunity of a lifetime on a scale that none of us has ever seen, and there are a few ways for any person to make an absolute gigantic killing on this one in a century event. He will be one of those people I am certain.

6. Immigration - the UK has failed on this and the numbers are spinning out of control. He wouldn't want this narrative to get worse

7. Foreign Policy - he would likely call July if he believes the situation of Israel, Ukraine or Taiwan will improve. Given the BRICS will be getting stronger, it is highly likely he perceived the situation would be worse. It shouldn't reflect on him, but it certainly isn't a plus

8. The issue with Thames Water is likely to worsen post summer

9. Given that interest rates are already around 5% and they were around 1% a few years back, a whole slew of mortgages are rolling off around Sep/October, and mortgages will be 2-3 times higher for many. Not a good "Feel" for the voters. Better go now


Advantages of November

1. He would have to assume .5 will not happen, and a greater priority place on inflation and interest rates falling. Given the mainstream press is ignoring .4 above, people seem to think this is the bigger story. It isn't. .

2. If Sunak even cared about being re-elected, November would give him time to earn the credits for .1 above and give time to feed the message to the public

3. He would have to believe the Rwanda scheme will be delivered. I don't think even he believes it.

4. A wing and a prayer that polling would improve. It is just worsening under him, so he must have seen the chances of this are near zero.

Autospell on mobile phone error there. I meant to say FedWire not "Fedex" above in bold

[Dave Blue]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

Tories talking about Labour messing things up just as things are going good is a bit like saying we’ve put the fire out but your house has burnt to the ground.

[goats]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

What's nice? Prices are still going up. Food is still 25% more than it was a couple of years ago.

Only because everyone’s turned there heating off….it will soon shoot up again like their vast profits come november

[Gofer Blue]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

What's nice? Prices are still going up. Food is still 25% more than it was a couple of years ago.

I don't believe this 25% stuff. We do most of our food shopping at Morrisons, Lidl and Aldi. I can't list (or remember!) the prices of everything of course but the cost of some of the items we buy very regularly have increased dramatically e.g.

Morrisons sparkling water, flavoured, was 50p a bottle, now 70p - up 40%.
Lidl Creamy Greek Yoghurt, was 99p, now £1.50 - up 51%.
Lidl canned peaches (large can), was 99p, now £1.75 - up 75%. *
Lidl's Colombia coffee, was £1.29, now £2.49 - up 93%*
Lidl's tomato soup, was 35p per tin, now 64p – up 82%.
McVities digestive biscuits (in Morrisons), were £1 a packet, now £1.80 – up 80%. *

*No longer buy these – totally unjustified increases. Also have stopped buying any Heinz products altogether, as their price increases are just ridiculous.

[Gofer Blue]

Re: 2% Inflation, enjoy it while you can !

Heating oil:

June 2020: 28p/L
June 2021: 42p/L
June 2022: 112p/L
June 2023: 57p/L
June 2024: 63p/L

Over the same period petrol has gone up from about 108p/L to 140p/L - 30%, yet heating oil is over double what it was 4 years ago.
Rip off Britain at its finest.