Exit Poll Lab majority 170

[WJ99mobile]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Fantastic night for Plaid! Won all 4 target seats (Caerfyrddin comfortably despite Labour throwing the kitchen sink at it) and good second in places as diverse as Bangor, Cardiff West and Caerphilly

Second in Caerphilly by 365 votes.
Second in Bangor by 76 votes

Wouldn't call that a "good second"

[pipster]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Credit to Starmer. Some winds in his sails but to turn it around from 2019 takes some doing and he has had to be very firm holding them together.

Let's hope they do well!

Nothing has changed - nothing will change. There are still the same set of problems and still the same set of economic figures. There is no magic bullet - just smoke screens. Unless he can get growth (real growth - not PFI Gordon Brown growth).

[jeepster]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Nothing has changed - nothing will change. There are still the same set of problems and still the same set of economic figures. There is no magic bullet - just smoke screens. Unless he can get growth (real growth - not PFI Gordon Brown growth).

Would you give any kind of credit if he did make growth?

[JamesWales]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Nothing has changed - nothing will change. There are still the same set of problems and still the same set of economic figures. There is no magic bullet - just smoke screens. Unless he can get growth (real growth - not PFI Gordon Brown growth).

I don't disagree. I've made that point for months.

[goats]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Imagine the irreversible damage you could do with a majority like that, just like Boris used his super majority to cause mayhem.

Surely they won’t be that stupid

[Citizen's Nephew]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Really?

Apart from arguably Sunak's furlough scheme during Covid all the governmental policies in the past 4.5 years have been right wing - reflecting the views and priorities of the 'Get Brexit Done' post 2019 Tory Party.

Even when they have been raising taxes and in a very limited way increasing some public spending, it has been done from a 'small state', isolationist or right libertarian stance.

And not even James claims that Rwanda is a fluffy liberal policy!

Yup! You really summarise my own view too. It’s worth noting that Starmer essentially vetoed proportional representation against the wishes of the Labour Party members and we’re unlikely to see anything radical by this watered down LP. This election was all about getting the Tories out and giving them a kicking. Something we desperately needed to do in 2019 but that clown Johnson was given a big majority.

[goats]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Nothing has changed - nothing will change. There are still the same set of problems and still the same set of economic figures. There is no magic bullet - just smoke screens. Unless he can get growth (real growth - not PFI Gordon Brown growth).

I can’t see how he will, for one he’s going after CGT and IT, the latter being deeply unpopular already and causes huge amounts of stress for already stressed out grieving families. A buoyant housing market is good for everyone, makes people happy to get on ladder or upsize, they spend on new kitchens, bathrooms, carpets etc when move employing countless trades in the process so money flying everywhere. If that stagnates it’s never a good economic outlook

[Citizen's Nephew]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

All this pre-scripted nonsense from Starmer and his fan club about this landslide being due to him 'changing the Labour Party' is getting on my nerves.

He changed the Labour Party alright. Gutted it of a third of the membership and most of the distinctive (and popular) policies. Made it bland and offered no vision. Kept it safe for the arms industry and American private health companies.

But the landslide was down to an SNP and Tory collapse combined with a Reform surge. Labour barely moved the dial. If Starmer had managed to get up to the Corbyn Labour vote share of 2017 he might have had an argument. But he is barely above the 2019 share!

This was the post I meant to reply to Jon. So my response should make more sense!

[Dave Blue]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Off you trot Tories. Bye bye. 👋

[WJ99mobile]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

I can’t see how he will, for one he’s going after CGT and IT, the latter being deeply unpopular already and causes huge amounts of stress for already stressed out grieving families. A buoyant housing market is good for everyone, makes people happy to get on ladder or upsize, they spend on new kitchens, bathrooms, carpets etc when move employing countless trades in the process so money flying everywhere. If that stagnates it’s never a good economic outlook

IT is deeply unpopular for a tiny % of the population, mainly in the South East.

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

Really?

Apart from arguably Sunak's furlough scheme during Covid all the governmental policies in the past 4.5 years have been right wing - reflecting the views and priorities of the 'Get Brexit Done' post 2019 Tory Party.

Even when they have been raising taxes and in a very limited way increasing some public spending, it has been done from a 'small state', isolationist or right libertarian stance.

And not even James claims that Rwanda is a fluffy liberal policy!

No chance Boris ad Sunak we left of centre, Furlough, and lockdowns went on for far too long, the tax hit was big, National insurance and the sneakiest was not putting up allowances, catching a lot of new higher rate taxpayers due to wage inflation and at the lower end workers and pensioners with small private or works pension schemes.

Starmer and Boris/Sunak are about the same no difference, that's why those that wanted change will see hardly any other than a few more sly tax grabs and no improvement in NHS schools and the rest, just increased rent as landlords sell and immigration/social housing in your back yards with planning rules changed, to allow that to happen easier.

[jon1959]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

This was the post I meant to reply to Jon. So my response should make more sense!

:thumbup:

[jon1959]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

This was the post I meant to reply to Jon. So my response should make more sense!

The landslide for Labour is impressive in terms of seats.

But not in vote share. Labour since Thatcher's victory in 1979:

1979 - 36.9%
1983 - 27.6%
1987 - 30.8%
1992 - 34.4%
1997 - 43.2%
2001 - 40.7%
2005 - 35.2%
2010 - 29.0%
2015 - 30.4%
2017 - 40.0%
2019 - 32.2%
2024 - 33.8%

But Starmer is an electoral genius and Corbyn was an electoral disaster!

With two Scottish seats still to declare the Labour vote comparison is also revealling:

2017 - 12,877,918
2019 - 10,269,051
2024 - 9,712,011 (2 seats in Scotland outstanding)

Again, the electoral genius of Kier Starmer and his 'Changed Labour Party'!

[JamesWales]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

The landslide for Labour is impressive in terms of seats.

But not in vote share. Labour since Thatcher's victory in 1979:

1979 - 36.9%
1983 - 27.6%
1987 - 30.8%
1992 - 34.4%
1997 - 43.2%
2001 - 40.7%
2005 - 35.2%
2010 - 29.0%
2015 - 30.4%
2017 - 40.0%
2019 - 32.2%
2024 - 33.8%

But Starmer is an electoral genius and Corbyn was an electoral disaster!

With two Scottish seats still to declare the Labour vote comparison is also revealling:

2017 - 12,877,918
2019 - 10,269,051
2024 - 9,712,011 (2 seats in Scotland outstanding)

Again, the electoral genius of Kier Starmer and his 'Changed Labour Party'!

It does seem churlish to offer any conclusion other than this being a resounding victory for Labour, but you are right.

There's quite a bit of analysis online about how small the average majority (irrespective of winning party) each seat is now - around half what it was.

In short, the average seat as of today is more competitive than it was, and look what happened last night when the margins were much bigger!

That, the turnout, the concern over independents and reform etc does make for an interesting picture.

I think the honeymoon period will be short, but I wish them well.

[Rjk]

Re: Exit Poll Lab majority 170

I can’t see how he will, for one he’s going after CGT and IT, the latter being deeply unpopular already and causes huge amounts of stress for already stressed out grieving families. A buoyant housing market is good for everyone, makes people happy to get on ladder or upsize, they spend on new kitchens, bathrooms, carpets etc when move employing countless trades in the process so money flying everywhere. If that stagnates it’s never a good economic outlook

There are upsides to a stagnant housing market - house prices in Japan have remained pretty stagnant for more than 20 years (due to falling population presumably) - this means that 1- its easy to get onto the property ladder.
2 -small businesses can survive where its little more than a hobby/labour of love as they don't have extortionate rents to have to meet on top of their living expenses.