The Opinion Polls

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

The final vote share was

Labour 35 percent

Tories 24

Reform 15

Liberals 12

A lot of these polling experts are clearly crap as they had the labour party at 40 , tories at 20 for most of the campaign

Money for old junk

[the other bob wilson]

Re: The Opinion Polls

The final vote share was

Labour 35 percent

Tories 24

Reform 15

Liberals 12

A lot of these polling experts are clearly crap as they had the labour party at 40 , tories at 20 for most of the campaign

Money for old junk

Maybe they were accurate at the time. One of the consequences of being told for weeks that the result was a foregone conclusion is that there were people who were inclined to vote Labour who didn’t bother. To be fair, the polls did have Labours lead slipping in the days before the election and the Tories were going up a bit as Reform slipped back slightly.

One thing the polls didn’t seem to take into account was how much Labour were damaged by their stance over Gaza.

[jon1959]

Re: The Opinion Polls

Maybe they were accurate at the time. One of the consequences of being told for weeks that the result was a foregone conclusion is that there were people who were inclined to vote Labour who didn’t bother. To be fair, the polls did have Labours lead slipping in the days before the election and the Tories were going up a bit as Reform slipped back slightly.

One thing the polls didn’t seem to take into account was how much Labour were damaged by their stance over Gaza.

Reduced turnout will have affected the accuracy of the polling too.

Not sure what the latest figure is, but for most of the night it was about 7% down on 2019. There were a lot of moving parts to this election, and the introduction of compulsory voter ID, but I would guess that both Labour and Tory voters stayed at home.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: The Opinion Polls

Reduced turnout will have affected the accuracy of the polling too.

Not sure what the latest figure is, but for most of the night it was about 7% down on 2019. There were a lot of moving parts to this election, and the introduction of compulsory voter ID, but I would guess that both Labour and Tory voters stayed at home.

There was a graphic on BBC just now saying turn out was down 8 per cent.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: The Opinion Polls

Maybe they were accurate at the time. One of the consequences of being told for weeks that the result was a foregone conclusion is that there were people who were inclined to vote Labour who didn’t bother. To be fair, the polls did have Labours lead slipping in the days before the election and the Tories were going up a bit as Reform slipped back slightly.

One thing the polls didn’t seem to take into account was how much Labour were damaged by their stance over Gaza.

Last poll from one of the big boys , a few hours before close of play gave labour a 19 point lead

That's way out