Senedd Election 2026

[JamesWales]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

I think most Reform voters don't care if the language is over the top towards immigrants etc

They love it which is why so many of them are voting for reform

Negative language towards immigrants is very different to negative language about mass immigration. The latter is fine. The former isn't.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Negative language towards immigrants is very different to negative language about mass immigration. The latter is fine. The former isn't.

Reform have loads of both

The comments coming out now they are above the trenches are appalling

It will out come out in the wash

These people have a party to vote for so it's up to the rest to forget about trying to placate them and deal with the core issues in a sensible and practical way

The Economy

Immigration

The NHS

That's it

[City123]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Farage seems to have a very good feel for how far he can push those kind of views before you go too far and start losing more votes than you're gaining from it.
Others in his party do not.

Yeah he's clearly their biggest asset, interesting that he won't be allowed in any of the Welsh debates due to not being a candidate

Plaid have had a few false dawns but this is the second consecutive poll they've led in. As Bob said Labour should have been out last time and Plaid did actually lead the last poll before Covid (which saved that Labour government in many ways)

Plaid looked well ahead with younger voters in the most recent poll as well, is it a one off or people who've grown up with the Senedd coming of age and naturally leaning that way a bit more than their elders? Support for abolishing the Senedd, for instance, is almost entirely confined to those over 55 whilst polling shows those under that age are almost overwhelmingly in favour of more powers or even independence

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Yeah he's clearly their biggest asset, interesting that he won't be allowed in any of the Welsh debates due to not being a candidate

Plaid have had a few false dawns but this is the second consecutive poll they've led in. As Bob said Labour should have been out last time and Plaid did actually lead the last poll before Covid (which saved that Labour government in many ways)

Plaid looked well ahead with younger voters in the most recent poll as well, is it a one off or people who've grown up with the Senedd coming of age and naturally leaning that way a bit more than their elders? Support for abolishing the Senedd, for instance, is almost entirely confined to those over 55 whilst polling shows those under that age are almost overwhelmingly in favour of more powers or even independence

I will only vote plaid to keep reform out as a tactical vote

If it's clear reform are walking away with things I will vote green or liberal

Labour will only get my vote if they sort themselves out

Apart from the fear of reform getting in the biggest issue for many is the utterly stupid idea of increasing by 30 the number of assembly members

At a time of hardship for many it stinks and has passed a lot of people off

It will be almost funny if reform get a large amount of those extra seats

What a complete farce for the nationalists that will be

The yes cymru marches are not a sign of an increased fervour for independence at all

More people attend ccfc games

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Yeah he's clearly their biggest asset, interesting that he won't be allowed in any of the Welsh debates due to not being a candidate

Plaid have had a few false dawns but this is the second consecutive poll they've led in. As Bob said Labour should have been out last time and Plaid did actually lead the last poll before Covid (which saved that Labour government in many ways)

Plaid looked well ahead with younger voters in the most recent poll as well, is it a one off or people who've grown up with the Senedd coming of age and naturally leaning that way a bit more than their elders? Support for abolishing the Senedd, for instance, is almost entirely confined to those over 55 whilst polling shows those under that age are almost overwhelmingly in favour of more powers or even independence

I would imagine people who have grown up with the Welsh assembly realise what a shambolic nonsense it is

Right across the board the elected representatives have been inadequate

If whoever runs the place after the next election sorts it out then good luck to them although I can't imagine reform doing that

In addition the Welsh electorate are hardly foaming at the mouth regarding the assembly ....not once since it was created have 50 percent of those eligible bothered voting

It's no good giving that sort of institution more powers and members is it ?

[City123]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

I would imagine people who have grown up with the Welsh assembly realise what a shambolic nonsense it is

Right across the board the elected representatives have been inadequate

If whoever runs the place after the next election sorts it out then good luck to them although I can't imagine reform doing that

In addition the Welsh electorate are hardly foaming at the mouth regarding the assembly ....not once since it was created have 50 percent of those eligible bothered voting

It's no good giving that sort of institution more powers and members is it ?

Well every statistic and poll goes against you there Sludge

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Well every statistic and poll goes against you there Sludge

Here's a statistic for you

5000 people marched for Welsh independence recently

More people watch Cardiff City

[City123]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Here's a statistic for you

5000 people marched for Welsh independence recently

More people watch Cardiff City

Your point is?

Getting a few thousand together for a protest march ain't bad going to be fair, and apparently it was nearer 7k: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj0zpz2ev6eo

That's far more than any of the Welsh political parties get for their conferences, for instance. I know you disagree with them, but I can't think of many things that would get 7,000 people out on a Sunday in Barry

I guess you saw the stats and polls and realised you were wrong about young people?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Your point is?

Getting a few thousand together for a protest march ain't bad going to be fair, and apparently it was nearer 7k: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj0zpz2ev6eo

That's far more than any of the Welsh political parties get for their conferences, for instance. I know you disagree with them, but I can't think of many things that would get 7,000 people out on a Sunday in Barry

I guess you saw the stats and polls and realised you were wrong about young people?

My point is if you think 5000 people waving Welsh flags in a country that you want to believe is marching towards independence is proof ...then I think you are deluded

The rise in the Plaid vote is because Labour have been so shocking recently

They will be loaned votes to try and keep reform out apart from those living in fantasy land who think we could survive as an independent nation

We have more in common in this part of the country with Bristol and Somerset and the M4 Corridor .......part urban , part semi urban , part rural ....than we do with the remote Ceredigion hills

If we were to go with Plaid to it's inevitable conclusion Cardiff and South East Wales would not have the financial taxation and infrastructure base to support hill farmers and rural schools and hospitals in mid , west and north wales

I hope to God that message is rammed home after the initial elation of your lot next May because if it isn't many of those independents living in pontcanna won't have to suffer like the poor sods in the rest of the country 😢

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Your point is?

Getting a few thousand together for a protest march ain't bad going to be fair, and apparently it was nearer 7k: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj0zpz2ev6eo

That's far more than any of the Welsh political parties get for their conferences, for instance. I know you disagree with them, but I can't think of many things that would get 7,000 people out on a Sunday in Barry

I guess you saw the stats and polls and realised you were wrong about young people?

Shocking defeat for Plaid in Llanelli yesterday

[City123]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

New poll: https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-...ntentions-poll

Plaid: 30%
Reform: 29%
Labour: 14%
Conservatives: 11%
Lib Dems: 6%
Greens: 6%

Labour that low would be truly incredible to the point I don't really buy it but it is the 3rd YouGov poll in a row with Plaid 1st and Reform 2nd

[City123]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Shocking defeat for Plaid in Llanelli yesterday

Both seats Reform have won in Llanelli were held by Labour, hardly shocking defeats for Plaid? Like saying it was a shocking defeat for the Lib Dems

[JamesWales]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

New poll: https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-...ntentions-poll

Plaid: 30%
Reform: 29%
Labour: 14%
Conservatives: 11%
Lib Dems: 6%
Greens: 6%

Labour that low would be truly incredible to the point I don't really buy it but it is the 3rd YouGov poll in a row with Plaid 1st and Reform 2nd

We have to take these polls at face value, but I would be absolutely amazed if Labours vote ended up that low

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

Both seats Reform have won in Llanelli were held by Labour, hardly shocking defeats for Plaid? Like saying it was a shocking defeat for the Lib Dems

Llanelli is a town that is natural Plaid territory if labour are not up to scratch, which they ain't

The fact you lost there with labour so inept says it all

I think Plaid are playing a dangerous game with independence and this nation Cymru nonsense

Plaid will have NO chance of any independence at all with reform , you will be thrown away with the trash

I will vote Plaid to defeat reform in wales if my local polls suggest that's tge best option .....thats what its all about

Plaid running with independence whilst farage is possibly going to walk in through the back door is extremely irresponsible

They would have far more support and respect if they admitted nationalism in the future is up for democratic debate but not till we have put reform out of the way .....and we do that by electoral pacts not saying oh we are so much better than labour ....when the huge danger is reform !

[City123]

Re: Senedd Election 2026

We have to take these polls at face value, but I would be absolutely amazed if Labours vote ended up that low

I'd be astonished if its that low, but the Plaid-Reform-Labour pattern is pretty established now

Interesting to me that the Lib Dems don't seem to be eating up some Labour support they way they are in England considering their previous dominance of Welsh politics