Local election results.

[Dorcus]

Re: Local election results.

It does look like a pattern is emerging. It has been a lot easier for labour to make gains in areas where Brexit wasn't a problem for them.

It's a difficult one because ordinarily you wouldn't want to show your hand this far from a GE but these locals, more than any, have been undertaken on a national basis with Boris being the main issue.

This is probably typical of starmer, a slow creep towards some small small level of dominance but he is never going to inspire massive headline gains.

It does feel like the macro environment is going to play out in favour of labour though, as it did for the tories in 2008-2010. Maybe a similar reaction from the electorate to that time period, not enough fully trust the opposition for a landslide but enough to form a coalition.

I think your analysis is sound. I thought it interesting to read the opinion of Sky election expert Will Jennings. He says the Conservatives did far better in council areas with a low graduate demographic but fared much worse in areas with a demographic of higher educational achievement. Labour's results followed the converse.

I wonder if it might be a useful Tory government strategy to allow pupils to leave school at 12: it might just secure their future.

[Swiss Peter]

Re: Local election results.

Some good analysis above.

It's a good day for Labour, but in all honesty, thats what you expect in local elections from whomever isn't in government and in that context it's not as good as Labour would have historically expected. Also, more evidence that the party are becoming increasingly popular in wealthier, metropolitan cities and parts of London and are still struggling to enthuse more traditionally working class communities in the north. Nothing we didn't know before.

Still lots to count, but Tories will probably be okay with it. They expected a kicking, they got a kicking and sometimes people want to punish parties, and having done so are sometimes more open to voting for them again.

Lib Dems have done well. They often do at local elections. Might be the start of a return to prominence for them after brexit etc. Lots of southern Tories will be more content voting for Lib Dems than Labour.

Greens picked up a few, no bad thing. Interesting from a Labour perspective though who probably want to keep that genie in the box a little.

No news from Wales - I expect the status quo

Scotland - I think Labour will gain a lot of seats, at the expense of the Tories and the SNP

N.IReland - Unfortunately Sinn Fein will win, which will stir the pot a lot.

Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Local election results.

I listened to a Podcast previewing the elections and it turned out be pretty accurate apart from two things. Firstly, they thought there was no chance of Labour taking Westminster and, second, that predictions of some sort of electoral Armageddon for the Conservatives were wide of the mark - the conclusion was that the “smart money” was on them losing something like 250/300 Councillors.

Well, they’ve lost 398 and, although I presume all of the results are in by now, if that we’re to go up to hit 400 to allow the extent to which they had a bad election more significant, I wonder if that may have consequences for Johnson? If they really have lost a hundred seats more than the so called smart money was expecting, then will those MPs finally find some backbone? I’m not holding my breath.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Local election results.

Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.

I think we will see how democratic the Democratic Unionist Party is when they contemplate power sharing when they are not the dominant power!

[life on mars]

Re: Local election results.

Some think democratic votes are there to.be overturned ?

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Local election results.

Some think democratic votes are there to.be overturned ?

Donald Trump?

oops sorry I meant Donald Trump???

[Dorcus]

Re: Local election results.

I think we will see how democratic the Democratic Unionist Party is when they contemplate power sharing when they are not the dominant power!

Yes very good point. They won't share power with SF. In my opinion this is a flaw in the GFA. If the Deputy Leader refuses to share power the Deputy Leadership should transfer to the third largest Assembly party.

[Elwood Blues]

Re: Local election results.

Yes very good point. They won't share power with SF. In my opinion this is a flaw in the GFA. If the Deputy Leader refuses to share power the Deputy Leadership should transfer to the third largest Assembly party.

They will share power with SF because they have in the past, but not with Sinn Fein having the First Minister, even though the posts of First and Deputy are equally important in he eyes of the GFA. It's semantics of course but we are talking about the DUP here.

There would be no point transferring the Deputy Leadership to the third largest party, because the DUP wouldn't take part in the assembly so it couldn't function anyway.

[Dorcus]

Re: Local election results.

They will share power with SF because they have in the past, but not with Sinn Fein having the First Minister, even though the posts of First and Deputy are equally important in he eyes of the GFA. It's semantics of course but we are talking about the DUP here.

There would be no point transferring the Deputy Leadership to the third largest party, because the DUP wouldn't take part in the assembly so it couldn't function anyway.

You're right we're talking about the DUP here. What a bunch of knobheads.

[JamesWales]

Re: Local election results.

Unfortunate for whom? If they win, that will be the democratic will of the NI people. That's how it works.

Does make the UK gov's squirming over the deal it agreed on the NI Protocol even more difficult - I can see that.

Well I wrote the post, so it's unfortunate from my perspective.

I have little time for Sinn Fein I am afraid. It is stacked with people who hold, or have held opinions sympathetic to the IRA and they offer little but chaos going forward and the break up of a country.

I don't dispute for a second their right to try and lead a coalition government but that doesn't mean that I don't think it's an unfortunate thing.

Personally, I'd rather the SDLP and the UUP do better than the more radical Sinn Fein and DUP / TUV

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Local election results.

Well I wrote the post, so it's unfortunate from my perspective.

I have little time for Sinn Fein I am afraid. It is stacked with people who hold, or have held opinions sympathetic to the IRA and they offer little but chaos going forward and the break up of a country.

I don't dispute for a second their right to try and lead a coalition government but that doesn't mean that I don't think it's an unfortunate thing.

Personally, I'd rather the SDLP and the UUP do better than the more radical Sinn Fein and DUP / TUV

It will take a lot more time for Sinn Fein to shake of the taint of Adams and McGuinness but when it comes to the potential break-up of the United Kingdom (I presume you mean this country) there are greater pressures than the election of a Sinn Fein First Minister.

I think it was Theresa May who said no UK Prime Minister could agree a customs border in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland but that is exactly what Boris Johnson agreed so expediently with DUP votes to get Brexit done. For all the denial noise from both the UK government and the DUP since the real risk is not the supposed stifling of trade with the mainland but the competitive advantage that Northern Ireland has by remaining in the Single Market.

Similarly Brexit has re-energised separatist sentiment in Scotland. Both present greater threats to the Union than half hearted noises from the Shinners on a United Ireland.

[Rjk]

Re: Local election results.

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horrible set of results for the Tories, on what was a pretty bad result last time around.
Labour will be very pleased with the results in Wales and London, but the rest of the country was fairly flat. but then I think they now have more seats than all the other parties put together

[life on mars]

Re: Local election results.

Donald Trump?

oops sorry I meant Donald Trump???

No UK MP's in Parliament sadly

[life on mars]

Re: Local election results.

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horrible set of results for the Tories, on what was a pretty bad result last time around.
Labour will be very pleased with the results in Wales and London, but the rest of the country was fairly flat. but then I think they now have more seats than all the other parties put together

Looks like the red Northern Wall held up for Tories though which is a shock .
The South West Remainers / NIMBYS went Liberal and Green .
Wales should worry about Plaid.
SNP were always going to win more seats as they hate anything English.
Labour has confirmed its Metropolitan middle class voting base how that plays out in the Election will be of great interest.

The map looks like remain v leave gotta feeling Brexit will be revisited as the Tories will stoke that fear of returning to Europe if you vote LD or Labour .

The other game to be played out will be of one of collation with SNP / Labour and the break up of UK .

Cant wait for the general election ,that's always one to stay up for not these.

I wonder who will be the Labour and Tory leaders into that campaign

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Local election results.

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horrible set of results for the Tories, on what was a pretty bad result last time around.
Labour will be very pleased with the results in Wales and London, but the rest of the country was fairly flat. but then I think they now have more seats than all the other parties put together

Think that the Labour results outside London and Wales are about what was expected and emphasises the size of the task they face.

As for the Tories, I mentioned in an earlier message that the “smart money” was on them losing between 250 and 300 seats. In the event, they’ve lost close to double that, but many people will go by the initial reporting which had that the results were not as bad as feared - I suppose the question is, will Tory MPs have cottoned on that the results are, in fact, pretty terrible for the party? I’m sure they will, but whether they’ll do anything about their liability of a leader is another matter.