Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Big jump in the number of new cases in Wales today, up to 223.

https://public.tableau.com/views/RapidCOVID-19virology-Mobilefriendly/Summary?%3AshowVizHome=no&%3Aembed=true&%3Amobile=true#2

[Hilts]

Re: Coronavirus update

Yeah big jump. Not good. Hopefully we dont see big rises in hospital admissions.

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

It's the same with the total deaths data. PHW says just under 5,600 total since the start of the pandemic. ONS say just over 7,800. Big difference

Presumably PHW aren't going back to update their daily figures. ONS will be more reliable.

[life on mars]

Re: Coronavirus update

Interesting take:

There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Coronavirus update

Less than half of the new cases there were in Wales yesterday, but it is still over a hundred;-

https://public.tableau.com/views/RapidCOVID-19virology-Mobilefriendly/Summary?%3AshowVizHome=no&%3Aembed=true&%3Amobile=true#2

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Interesting take:

There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.

Exactly, aren’t we heading for herd immunity through vaccines and antibodies? Anyone got any sympathy for the anti vaccers if they end up in hospital?

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

Exactly, aren’t we heading for herd immunity through vaccines and antibodies? Anyone got any sympathy for the anti vaccers if they end up in hospital?

Herd immunity won't happen imo. For measles, about 95% vaccination is needed. Even if you get that, if you go somewhere that's not 95%, like on holiday, then youre at risk again.

I don't think scientists know enough about covid to have a reliable herd % - I know 80% used to be mentioned a lot but we've had a very infectious variant since then.

[surge]

Re: Coronavirus update

Interesting take:

There was always going to be a new wave of infections as restrictions lifted. After all, lockdowns don’t kill a virus – they just delay the spread. But should we be scared? In this week’s issue, Philip Thomas, a professor of risk management, is emphatic that there’s no need to fear the third wave. We’re as ready as we’ll ever be, thanks to the success of the vaccines. There may well be a huge rise in Covid cases over the summer – particularly among the young – but thankfully, the virus has been deprived of the danger it once carried. So let’s re-open, he says, and deal with the exit wave now, rather than in the depths of winter.

Two points from that:

i) we're as ready as we'll ever be for a third wave
ii) let's chose timing of that third wave to ensure it's not during winter time

Hard to agree with the first and disagree with the second.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Herd immunity won't happen imo. For measles, about 95% vaccination is needed. Even if you get that, if you go somewhere that's not 95%, like on holiday, then youre at risk again.

I don't think scientists know enough about covid to have a reliable herd % - I know 80% used to be mentioned a lot but we've had a very infectious variant since then.

I remember you saying that the vaccine rollout would be the beginning of the end too.....

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

I remember you saying that the vaccine rollout would be the beginning of the end too.....

That is not the zinger of a putdown that you think it is

[delmbox]

Re: Coronavirus update

I know it's old news that Wales has done well on the vaccination front but seen in a chart like on this page it really is impressive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57438587

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

I remember you saying that the vaccine rollout would be the beginning of the end too.....

I think you're talking about this:

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php?445830-COVID-Something-has-to-change&p=5120002&viewfull=1#post5120002

Last September, when you said:
"Think they are just saying 6 months as that’s winter over at least, even though the last lockdown started at the end of last winter.....

Maybe there will be a vaccine? Didn’t Vallance say the other day there was a small chance it could be ready for those who need it most by Christmas? Now, that would be the sort of news that if true most people would just toe the line up until then, knowing things will be normal again post Christmas. I’d be happy to sit in for 3 months if it was nailed on this would end once and for all."


And I replied:
"The arrival of the vaccine will be the beginning of the end, but it will still take a painfully long time before we can say it's ended once and for all. "


The end clearly refers to the end of lockdowns, restrictions, etc. Please don't twist my words to make it seem like I said the vaccine was the beginning of the end of the virus itself.

Later that day in the thread you called me "the merchant of doom"
but time hasn't proven me wrong yet, wouldn't you say goats?

[surge]

Re: Coronavirus update

For those above 18 and on a purely UK level as of 9th of June:

1st: Wales, 87%
2nd: Scotland, 77.6%
3rd: England, 77.1%
4th: Northern Ireland, 75.8%

And for second doses that is:

1st: England, 55.3%
2nd: Scotland, 52.9%
3rd: Wales, 52.1%
4th: Northern Ireland, 50.7%

As per: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

I think what interested me most was that the gap in terms of second doses for Wales from top position is narrowing but gap to second position for first doses has remained stable since I last looked at the figures a few days ago.

It's obviously not a race and many different factors at play, also the most important thing is people coming forward especially if they've missed a dose.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

More pollitics, Drakeford saying something is "Simply untrue" answering a different question. He says that they have never drawn from the UK Buffer stockpile implying Hancock said they had, where in reality Hancock said the buffer is available if it is needed. A different thing.
The reason Wales have vaccinated a greater percentage of people is because they are targeting first vaccinations where England and Scotland are going more for second, and that's the only reason. They haven't manage to make more doses by giving less or conjured up extra doses on their own, it's nonsense. you can only give the number of vaccines you have, the difference is who you give them to.
The other political thing in this article is Mr Drakeford also said he was not prepared to follow England by announcing a date when all freedoms would be restored in Wales.

"I think it's too optimistic to say that vaccination has broken the link between falling ill and hospitalisation with the new Delta variant," he said. It implies he has already made his mind up, so much for someone who says he always follows the science. If the science says open up, does anyone honestly believe he will?
It's not medical, it's political.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

I think you're talking about this:

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php?445830-COVID-Something-has-to-change&p=5120002&viewfull=1#post5120002

Last September, when you said:
"Think they are just saying 6 months as that’s winter over at least, even though the last lockdown started at the end of last winter.....

Maybe there will be a vaccine? Didn’t Vallance say the other day there was a small chance it could be ready for those who need it most by Christmas? Now, that would be the sort of news that if true most people would just toe the line up until then, knowing things will be normal again post Christmas. I’d be happy to sit in for 3 months if it was nailed on this would end once and for all."


And I replied:
"The arrival of the vaccine will be the beginning of the end, but it will still take a painfully long time before we can say it's ended once and for all. "


The end clearly refers to the end of lockdowns, restrictions, etc. Please don't twist my words to make it seem like I said the vaccine was the beginning of the end of the virus itself.

Later that day in the thread you called me "the merchant of doom"
but time hasn't proven me wrong yet, wouldn't you say goats?

Things aren’t doom like at all are they? Doom monger