Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[lisvaneblue]

Re: Coronavirus update

True - and my guess is that half the shopkeepers, cafe owners, taxi drivers and people running B&Bs were English. But my point is that the English tourists had to cross the border to get to Tenby - and from the accents it was probably across the bridge and through South Wales, before joining the 10 mile tailback into Pembrokeshire!

I'm on holiday St Ives, Cornwall at the moment. It's said to be a hotspot for Covid Delta with 44 cases per 100,000 locally.

So, turned up at a pub for a pint and some lunch. They asked me to sign in via NHS app which I did, then they asked my wife to do then same. She didn't have her phone with her so she offered to complete a contact form. No go they said, no phone no entry.

Gone a bit over the top really!.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

This is Pembrokeshire though, they don't call it "Little England beyond Wales" for no reason

Yeah 99% of bookings for my place are from England, in fact I can only think of a few from Wales. I guess Welsh people either have their own holiday home or shoot off to the Costa’s….

[splott parker]

Re: Coronavirus update

I'm on holiday St Ives, Cornwall at the moment. It's said to be a hotspot for Covid Delta with 44 cases per 100,000 locally.

So, turned up at a pub for a pint and some lunch. They asked me to sign in via NHS app which I did, then they asked my wife to do then same. She didn't have her phone with her so she offered to complete a contact form. No go they said, no phone no entry.

Gone a bit over the top really!.

Ridiculous, what about people who don’t possess a mobile phone

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Ridiculous, what about people who don’t possess a mobile phone

Let them starve!!

[bluesp]

Re: Coronavirus update

Yeah 99% of bookings for my place are from England, in fact I can only think of a few from Wales. I guess Welsh people either have their own holiday home or shoot off to the Costa’s….

We’re renting out our family home down there for the first time this year, care home fees to cover. Not sure where bookings are from so far as the agency don’t tell us automatically.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

An interesting take from a different angle on the extention of lockdown.


Fear over freedom: Here's what the doom-laden government graphs didn't show us
Putting the data in context, it is clear that the scale of a 'third wave' is not in the same league as those we have already faced.

the graphs
As ever at Downing Street press conferences, Boris Johnson’s scientific advisers deployed their graphs skilfully to back up the warnings of potential catastrophe.

The by now all-too-familiar vertiginous lines were intended to leave the public in no doubt about the consequences of not delaying freedom until July 19.

But take a closer look and the choice of graphs is arguably disingenuous: the slides are most revealing for what they failed to include.

Hospital admissions
We were shown a graph comparing the change in the proportion of under and over-65s admitted to hospital in January and in May/June.

This showed a big jump in the under-65s column, a point Prof Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, took pains to emphasise.

The problem is that this fails to show just how much lower the raw numbers are now.

In reality, there were 95,172 admissions for Covid in England between Jan 1 and 28, compared with 2,851 between May 16 and June 12.

However, a brief glance at the Downing Street graph - and that’s all the general public will have had the chance to do - could well give the impression that the situation in hospitals is worse than last winter.

This comparison is also weakened by the timing chosen by the Government.

Cases are generally distributed in younger age groups towards the start of a period of opening up, as these people are more likely to return to work in person or to socialise.

In September, at the start of the second wave, those aged 18-to-64 comprised 51 per cent of admissions compared with 60 per cent in May. This was higher than it was for the over-65 age group.

The Telegraph’s own graph below - showing, crucially, the actual numbers of patients in hospitals - demonstrates how incomparably better the current situation is.


On Tuesday morning, Sir Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, revealed that just one per cent of hospital beds are currently occupied by Covid patients, with most of those young.

Sir Simon also said hospitals are in a “much better position” than last year.

The age distribution has “flipped” he said, so those under-65 now make up 70 per cent of cases

The North West
The second graph deployed by Prof Whitty to illustrate the supposed pressure felt by hospitals was problematic in a different way.

It showed the average number of weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 for both the North West and England as a whole.

Snaking left to right by month, the lines appear to rise sharply - particularly for the North West - in the past two weeks.

The problem is one of scale.

The rise in the North West is significant, but, again, pales in comparison with the second wave.

Admissions are at around five per 100,000 as of June 12, compared with around 20 per 100,000 at the end of December and then over 40 by the peak.

This was in no way evident at Monday night’s briefing.

On the far left of the government graph, you can just about see the end of the gentle downhill slope, denoting the end of the second wave, at the start of April.

But it would have been far more informative to have shown the colossal mountain of the second wave itself, so the public could have seen how much bigger it was than the recent uptick.


Cases by age
The same criticism can be made of the graphs showing the weekly increase in cases, which were also only presented from the beginning of April, rather than December or January.

Properly understanding this metric was further hampered by the failure to set out how the cases break down by age.

Most of England’s new cases are now among the young.

Across all ages, the latest daily rate in England is 67.1 per 100,000 (as of June 9), but for those under-60s the rate is 84.1 per, and for those over 60 it is just 12.6 per 100,000.


Downing Street’s choice of graphs needs to be seen in the context that its own modellers have already admitted that they do not know whether releasing restrictions on June 21 would have caused unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

Arguably, Britain is actually doing better than many scientists had predicted. Undoubtedly, the risk of unlocking has changed as a result of the delta variant, but when compared with the turn of the year it is clear the scale of a "third wave" is not in the same league as those we have already faced.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

We’re renting out our family home down there for the first time this year, care home fees to cover. Not sure where bookings are from so far as the agency don’t tell us automatically.

What agency did you use?

[bluesp]

Re: Coronavirus update

What agency did you use?

Coastal Cottages

[surge]

Re: Coronavirus update

An interesting take from a different angle on the extention of lockdown.

Fear over freedom: Here's what the doom-laden government graphs didn't show us
....

Problem being that it's not a new take. It's largely the same take they had for wave 1 and 2 and were shown to be wrong both times, though hopefully they're right this time.

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Coastal Cottages

Are they the ones that take 40%?

[bluesp]

Re: Coronavirus update

Are they the ones that take 40%?

Nope

[goats]

Re: Coronavirus update

Nope

They were nicknamed “covid cottages” last summer because their cleaners were so bad….just sayin

[bluesp]

Re: Coronavirus update

They were nicknamed “covid cottages” last summer because their cleaners were so bad….just sayin

Oh ok, that’s good to know. Feel free to drop me a direct message with more info if you don’t mind.

[Vindec]

Re: Coronavirus update

An interesting take from a different angle on the extention of lockdown.


Fear over freedom: Here's what the doom-laden government graphs didn't show us
Putting the data in context, it is clear that the scale of a 'third wave' is not in the same league as those we have already faced.

the graphs
As ever at Downing Street press conferences, Boris Johnson’s scientific advisers deployed their graphs skilfully to back up the warnings of potential catastrophe.

The by now all-too-familiar vertiginous lines were intended to leave the public in no doubt about the consequences of not delaying freedom until July 19.

But take a closer look and the choice of graphs is arguably disingenuous: the slides are most revealing for what they failed to include.

Hospital admissions
We were shown a graph comparing the change in the proportion of under and over-65s admitted to hospital in January and in May/June.

This showed a big jump in the under-65s column, a point Prof Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, took pains to emphasise.

The problem is that this fails to show just how much lower the raw numbers are now.

In reality, there were 95,172 admissions for Covid in England between Jan 1 and 28, compared with 2,851 between May 16 and June 12.

However, a brief glance at the Downing Street graph - and that’s all the general public will have had the chance to do - could well give the impression that the situation in hospitals is worse than last winter.

This comparison is also weakened by the timing chosen by the Government.

Cases are generally distributed in younger age groups towards the start of a period of opening up, as these people are more likely to return to work in person or to socialise.

In September, at the start of the second wave, those aged 18-to-64 comprised 51 per cent of admissions compared with 60 per cent in May. This was higher than it was for the over-65 age group.

The Telegraph’s own graph below - showing, crucially, the actual numbers of patients in hospitals - demonstrates how incomparably better the current situation is.


On Tuesday morning, Sir Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, revealed that just one per cent of hospital beds are currently occupied by Covid patients, with most of those young.

Sir Simon also said hospitals are in a “much better position” than last year.

The age distribution has “flipped” he said, so those under-65 now make up 70 per cent of cases

The North West
The second graph deployed by Prof Whitty to illustrate the supposed pressure felt by hospitals was problematic in a different way.

It showed the average number of weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 for both the North West and England as a whole.

Snaking left to right by month, the lines appear to rise sharply - particularly for the North West - in the past two weeks.

The problem is one of scale.

The rise in the North West is significant, but, again, pales in comparison with the second wave.

Admissions are at around five per 100,000 as of June 12, compared with around 20 per 100,000 at the end of December and then over 40 by the peak.

This was in no way evident at Monday night’s briefing.

On the far left of the government graph, you can just about see the end of the gentle downhill slope, denoting the end of the second wave, at the start of April.

But it would have been far more informative to have shown the colossal mountain of the second wave itself, so the public could have seen how much bigger it was than the recent uptick.


Cases by age
The same criticism can be made of the graphs showing the weekly increase in cases, which were also only presented from the beginning of April, rather than December or January.

Properly understanding this metric was further hampered by the failure to set out how the cases break down by age.

Most of England’s new cases are now among the young.

Across all ages, the latest daily rate in England is 67.1 per 100,000 (as of June 9), but for those under-60s the rate is 84.1 per, and for those over 60 it is just 12.6 per 100,000.


Downing Street’s choice of graphs needs to be seen in the context that its own modellers have already admitted that they do not know whether releasing restrictions on June 21 would have caused unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

Arguably, Britain is actually doing better than many scientists had predicted. Undoubtedly, the risk of unlocking has changed as a result of the delta variant, but when compared with the turn of the year it is clear the scale of a "third wave" is not in the same league as those we have already faced.

Interesting. The statistic that registered with me was that, had it not been for the Indian variant, COVID would have been virtually eliminated.

[xsnaggle]

Re: Coronavirus update

Interesting. The statistic that registered with me was that, had it not been for the Indian variant, COVID would have been virtually eliminated.

But as with all statistics, you have to take it with a pinch of salt, just as you do the doom and gloom merchants.