Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: Coronavirus update

The testing here is absolutely abysmal.
In Virginia right now they are testing 10% of cases that rock up to urgent care with Covid symptoms and only if it is severe.

The curve isn’t going to flatten here anytime soon.

Also a friend of my Wife is a nurse and their PPE equipment is shocking.
She has one N95 mask.
I luckily bought a box of N95 masks in January and she is on her way to pick up a few.
She also has to drive out to a gin distillery to get hand sanitizer.

Unbelievable, especially when you consider the high expense paid each month (as well as Co-pay) for Health Insurance.

If anything good can come from this, a big rethink of Health Care in America is hopefully one of them.

Your reports from your side of the pond are interesting. Keep them coming.

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

Good news from USA, the IHME data model has now dropped to a prediction level of 60k Covid-19 deaths up until 4 August, which is the same as a heavy regular flu season. I'm a bit confused by their hospital counting methods though, as every death where Covid-19 is present or assumed to be present without testing is classified as a Covid-19 case. That means if a heart attack victim is admitted and picks up the Covid-19 virus at the hospital, then it is registered as a Covid-19 case.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

How is 60,000 extra deaths while everyone is social distancing good news?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: Coronavirus update

How is 60,000 extra deaths while everyone is social distancing good news?

Its good news because 60k is less than the previous predictions of 2.2M, 1.1M, 250k and 100k, and it's also in the ballpark of regular flu.

Regarding extra deaths as noted above everything is being recorded as Covid-19. For a clearer picture you will have to compare the current numbers with historical data when it becomes available.

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

Is the country usually in lockdown during regular flu?

[surge]

Re: Coronavirus update

Is the country usually in lockdown during regular flu?

Do people die in hospital without friends or family by their side because the government did nothing for a month (or more) meaning there isn't enough protective equipment to go around?

40 minutes of The Covid Report aims to provide discussion around daily briefing and more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05-jbrHRmrs

[Packerman]

Re: Coronavirus update

Is the country usually in lockdown during regular flu?

not sure why anyone bothers to engage with gluey tbh,
he's convinced this is a storm in a teacup.
nothing to see here move along
the fact that we are losing nearly a thousand people a day and everyone is living in a surreal world atm is neither here nor there to our resident know-all
15 people died in a care home recently, they only tested 5, the other ten were just added to the stats (all same symptoms)
my previous partner died in a care home(thank **** she isn't alive for me and he children to worry about and not see for months)
my current partner works in a care home and they have 5 residents with symptoms) she's worked in that home for 19 years and has never seen ANYTHING like it
the fear and anxiety is all pervading but its just compatible to a bad years seasonal flu apparently so on we go living in a parallel universe to the norm of a few weeks ago

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

It’s also ignoring the fact that 60,000 would be as bad the worst number of flu deaths the US has had in the last 10 years, last year they had 28,000.

Anyone comparing the numbers to flu is doing so just to minimise how bad this is because they decided a few months ago it was just a bad flu and we didn’t need to social distance.

It’s also ignoring the fact that we’ve still had a flu season. So 60,000 extra deaths is no big deal?

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

not sure why anyone bothers to engage with gluey tbh,
he's convinced this is a storm in a teacup.
nothing to see here move along
the fact that we are losing nearly a thousand people a day and everyone is living in a surreal world atm is neither here nor there to our resident know-all
15 people died in a care home recently, they only tested 5, the other ten were just added to the stats (all same symptoms)
my previous partner died in a care home(thank **** she isn't alive for me and he children to worry about and not see for months)
my current partner works in a care home and they have 5 residents with symptoms) she's worked in that home for 19 years and has never seen ANYTHING like it
the fear and anxiety is all pervading but its just compatible to a bad years seasonal flu apparently so on we go living in a parallel universe to the norm of a few weeks ago

I hope your wife is managing to stay safe, sounds a terrible situation but amazing she’s caring for people at a time like this.

[cyril evans awaydays]

Re: Coronavirus update

The testing here is absolutely abysmal.
In Virginia right now they are testing 10% of cases that rock up to urgent care with Covid symptoms and only if it is severe.

The curve isn’t going to flatten here anytime soon.

Also a friend of my Wife is a nurse and their PPE equipment is shocking.
She has one N95 mask.
I luckily bought a box of N95 masks in January and she is on her way to pick up a few.
She also has to drive out to a gin distillery to get hand sanitizer.

Unbelievable, especially when you consider the high expense paid each month (as well as Co-pay) for Health Insurance.

If anything good can come from this, a big rethink of Health Care in America is hopefully one of them.

The experience of your friend's wife and Packerman's experience on testing looks consistent with the HHS Inspector General's report that surveyed a sample of hospitals and other facilities in the US.

https://oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei-06-20-00300.pdf?referringSource=articleShare

But obviously you have to realise what you are feeding back is fake and the IG report bull because Wales-Bales found a video of a crying nurse on CBS saying she didn't have a mask when she did and Trump said the report and all the survey results were wrong because the IG was appointed in 1999 and served the Obama Administration. How silly do you look now?

[Divine Wright]

Re: Coronavirus update

not sure why anyone bothers to engage with gluey tbh,
he's convinced this is a storm in a teacup.
nothing to see here move along
the fact that we are losing nearly a thousand people a day and everyone is living in a surreal world atm is neither here nor there to our resident know-all
15 people died in a care home recently, they only tested 5, the other ten were just added to the stats (all same symptoms)
my previous partner died in a care home(thank **** she isn't alive for me and he children to worry about and not see for months)
my current partner works in a care home and they have 5 residents with symptoms) she's worked in that home for 19 years and has never seen ANYTHING like it
the fear and anxiety is all pervading but its just compatible to a bad years seasonal flu apparently so on we go living in a parallel universe to the norm of a few weeks ago

I think what some people are getting at with the flu comparison is that the flu is a relatively unthreatening virus for the general population and that sars-cov-2 will turn out to be a lot less lethal than the 1 or 2 % fatality rate that is going round at the moment. I’ve read that it’s likely to be around 0.5%.

Spoken about in these terms, we are looking at a virus that is a bit more harmful than a somewhat harmless virus. Which is kind of undeniable.

That said, in the context of elderly care facilities, we are talking about a virus that is much more contagious and is going to kill ten or twenty times more people than the flu. However, I should imagine a flu outbreak in an old people’s home is a little more worrying than it would be on a university campus too.

I’m 39 and I’m a little concerned. If I were 70 odd , I’d be worried and cautious with it. And the stats would pretty much back me up.

[Packerman]

Re: Coronavirus update

I think what some people are getting at with the flu comparison is that the flu is a relatively unthreatening virus for the general population and that sars-cov-2 will turn out to be a lot less lethal than the 1 or 2 % fatality rate that is going round at the moment. I’ve read that it’s likely to be around 0.5%.

Spoken about in these terms, we are looking at a virus that is a bit more harmful than a somewhat harmless virus. Which is kind of undeniable.

That said, in the context of elderly care facilities, we are talking about a virus that is much more contagious and is going to kill ten or twenty times more people than the flu. However, I should imagine a flu outbreak in an old people’s home is a little more worrying than it would be on a university campus too.

I’m 39 and I’m a little concerned. If I were 70 odd , I’d be worried and cautious with it. And the stats would pretty much back me up.

she's 64 with asthma and I'm 62 with stable angina, so i guess we are more concerned that most, her working in a care home just adds to the worry

[Packerman]

Re: Coronavirus update

I think what some people are getting at with the flu comparison is that the flu is a relatively unthreatening virus for the general population and that sars-cov-2 will turn out to be a lot less lethal than the 1 or 2 % fatality rate that is going round at the moment. I’ve read that it’s likely to be around 0.5%.

Spoken about in these terms, we are looking at a virus that is a bit more harmful than a somewhat harmless virus. Which is kind of undeniable.


That said, in the context of elderly care facilities, we are talking about a virus that is much more contagious and is going to kill ten or twenty times more people than the flu. However, I should imagine a flu outbreak in an old people’s home is a little more worrying than it would be on a university campus too.

I’m 39 and I’m a little concerned. If I were 70 odd , I’d be worried and cautious with it. And the stats would pretty much back me up.

also these figures are with lockdown in place what would the toll be if we had carried on as normal like we do in normal flu season

[lardy]

Re: Coronavirus update

How is 60,000 extra deaths while everyone is social distancing good news?

Trump, having no more than a few weeks ago said that there would soon be zero cases in America, is now saying that 60,000 deaths would be a massive success because of the model that says there might be 2.2million. And therefore the Trump fanboys jump on board with it and get excited by the prospect of only 60,000 dying.

I'd say it's a risky strategy as the US is already a quarter of the way there and hasn't shown any signs of slowing yet - but the Trump fanboys forget the past every time for the golden future, so it's just business as usual.

Trump says it, we love it.

[Croesy Blue]

Re: Coronavirus update

Just to bring this to a wider audience, maybe I am stupid but:

You're, like Gunman, another one who has abandoned all sense of proportion. But I'm astounded by his gullibility while yours is unsurprising.

You are ignoring the facts though. Just to suit your original view point.

Covid is very infectious - the UK has been social distancing for a month - we have still had a lot of deaths - our hospitals still are becomming overwhelmed so people who need life saving treatment can't get it - Doctors and nurses are still dying of covid making hospitals even more understaffed.

This is all with social distancing, without social distancing it is worse.

Which part of this do you disagree with? Do you understand this all gets exponentially worse without social distancing?

[rudy gestede]

Re: Coronavirus update

I keep seeing it mentioned that organ Morgan isn’t stupid but he’s trying to make a statistical conclusion on something that’s been around for 5 minutes and is willing to die on that hill.

Covid has been around for ~ 3 months. It’s like saying getting bombs dropped on you by the Germans isn’t a worry 3 months into WW2.

It’s no where near long enough to conclude the death rate. And that’s ignoring the fact the direct covid deaths aren’t the only issue.