The Official Predictions Thread

[Organ Morgan.]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

I hate to see friendships crumble like this

I gave him the benefit of the doubt for weeks then months for why he didn't have the grace to answer my queries. He was busy doing laps round the world on an aircraft was one excuse.

I suspect he's quietly going gaga.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

I gave him the benefit of the doubt for weeks then months for why he didn't have the grace to answer my queries. He was busy doing laps round the world on an aircraft was one excuse.

I suspect he's quietly going gaga.

Your queries related to questions about other content you wanted me to read, n'est pas?

[lardy]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

This one's an easy prediction: all resident Teltetubbies will fail to correctly identify the cause of the European die off. Faked bafflement, as always, will prevail.

Jon1959: I haven't the foggiest.

Delmbox: What could it be? Search me.

Taunton Blue Meanie: It's a real puzzler.

Lardy: They fell down the stairs, or tripped over the cat. Obvious, innit.

My word, this is worse than we had predicted... EU 🇪🇺 has just recorded 53000 Excess Deaths in July, that's a massive 16% increase on the rolling 5 year average and the Majority are 𝙉𝙤𝙣 𝘾𝙤𝙫𝙞𝙙 deaths...Clearly something terrible is unfolding...I wonder what it could be 🧐 pic.twitter.com/jRUI8UIugp

— 𝙍𝙄𝙎𝙀𝙈𝙀𝙇𝘽𝙊𝙐𝙍𝙉𝙀 (@riseupandresist) September 20, 2022

The breakdown of Excess Death Percentages is below, it could only be described as terrifying..Full Clip Below pic.twitter.com/Uj2Q41Zpsx

— 𝙍𝙄𝙎𝙀𝙈𝙀𝙇𝘽𝙊𝙐𝙍𝙉𝙀 (@riseupandresist) September 20, 2022

No doubt we've all been wondering what the August deaths figure would be:


Excess mortality in the EU fell to +12% in August 2022 compared with the peak of +16% recorded in July, which was the highest value on record to date in 2022 and unusually high for the month of July. This comes after both May and June 2022 recorded +7% of the average number of deaths for the same period in 2016-2019.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20221014-1

Looks like those of us who noticed that the spike occurred when there were record breaking high temperatures might just have been correct.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Looks like those of us who noticed that the spike occurred when there were record breaking high temperatures might just have been correct.

I hope this is not another one of your Russia Collusion moments :hehe:

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

But why such a spike in July? Vaccine administration has been widespread and ongoing for 18+ months and countries have been using different batches at different rates all over Europe.
Millions received doses in March 2021, August 2021, December 2021, February 2022 and every month in between and more. If it's vaccine related why would the spike only occur in July? You would expect to see a continuous rise in excess deaths in line with the vaccination rates.
Considering the similar rates of vaccine uptake in Denmark and Iceland, why is there such a disparity between their excess deaths? Iceland doesn't have a 4.5x higher vaccination rate yet has a 4.5x higher excess death rate

Just touching base to see if you have the latest excess death figures? I'm guessing the figures will be way down from the July number you quoted, given the rigorous veracity of your argument.

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Just touching base to see if you have the latest excess death figures? I'm guessing the figures will be way down from the July number you quoted, given the rigorous veracity of your argument.

Excess deaths in August across the whole EU was +12% compared to +16.1% in July. That's a decrease of just over 25% which I'm sure we can both agree is considered "Way down"


Excess Deaths averaged across the EU:
EU Excess Deaths.jpg

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/thumb/a/a6/Fig01_Excess_Mortality_2022_Aug.png/1200px-Fig01_Excess_Mortality_2022_Aug.png

In July, 25 of 31 European countries saw an increase in excess deaths compared to June.
In August, only 10 of the same 31 countries saw an increase in excess deaths compared to July.
Excess Deaths by country.jpg

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/0/01/Tab01_Excess_Mortality_2022_Aug.png

If you can't read the images, click the links. They take you direct to the webpage with the data.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Excess deaths in August across the whole EU was +12% compared to +16.1% in July. That's a decrease of just over 25% which I'm sure we can both agree is considered "Way down"

Excess Deaths averaged across the EU:

In July, 25 of 31 European countries saw an increase in excess deaths compared to June.
In August, only 10 of the same 31 countries saw an increase in excess deaths compared to July.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/0/01/Tab01_Excess_Mortality_2022_Aug.png

If you can't read the images, click the links. They take you direct to the webpage with the data.

I would like to compare the latest October figures with the July 2022 data you were working from earlier, to observe the effect of the cooling weather.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20220916-1

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

I would like to compare the latest October figures with the July 2022 data you were working from earlier, to observe the effect of the cooling weather.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/pr...ddn-20220916-1

That link doesn’t contain data about October? It’s from September 16th.

Presumably the data for October doesn’t exist anywhere yet considering the month finished yesterday and how long it takes to get a death registered.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

That link doesn’t contain data about October?

Presumably the data for October doesn’t exist anywhere yet considering the month finished yesterday and how long it takes to get a death registered.

I'm just trying to answer the question that you asked about 10 times, so I will check back later. Should we be expecting the 16.1 peak to drop below 5.0 with the cooler weather in the latest data?

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

I'm just trying to answer the question that you asked about 10 times, so I will check back later. Should we be expecting the 16.1 peak to drop below 5.0 with the cooler weather in the latest data?

I'm not sure what you're asking for? Why 5.0 in particular, where has that figure come from? The last time excess deaths were that low in the EU was July 2020.

You wanted to know if excess deaths had decreased compared to July. And in August they have.

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

I'm not sure what you're asking for? Why 5.0 in particular, where has that figure come from? The last time excess deaths were that low in the EU was July 2020.

You wanted to know if excess deaths had decreased compared to July. And in August they have.

So what caused the 16.1 peak?

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

So what caused the 16.1 peak?

Considering the 16.1 peak occurred in July, I’d assume the record breaking heatwaves would’ve factored into it.

But what do you propose it was?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Considering the 16.1 peak occurred in July, I’d assume the record breaking heatwaves would’ve factored into it.

But what do you propose it was?

I don't know, that's why I want to see the October data.

[Canton Kev]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

I don't know, that's why I want to see the October data.

Well that doesn’t exist yet. With the available data have you got no opinions?

Before you insinuated it was the vaccine reacting to the heat, no?

[Wales-Bales]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread

Well that doesn’t exist yet. With the available data have you got no opinions?

Before you insinuated it was the vaccine reacting to the heat, no?

I made no connection to the heat.