Pound still dropping

[jon1959]

Re: Pound still dropping

Depends what you mean by "deliberately".

There are a few people who have made an awful lot of money around market movements that could easily have been predicted had they known in advance of some of the policy shifts.

I read somewhere that Sunak met with hedge fund managers before he announced his mad fiscal plans. Could be a complete fantasy but if it's true, the hedge funders would have gone straight back to their offices and shorted the GBP.

I think for once Sunak may be innocent here. He was Chancellor last month. Then there was another one. Now we've got the one who (with the strangely MIA Liz Truss) has crashed the economy - but ensured that a few of their mates made a killing in the process!

[az city]

Re: Pound still dropping

I think for once Sunak may be innocent here. He was Chancellor last month. Then there was another one. Now we've got the one who (with the strangely MIA Liz Truss) has crashed the economy - but ensured that a few of their mates made a killing in the process!

My bad. I meant Kwarteng.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Pound still dropping

Sunak is a bit of a smiling assassin

And he's got form for dodgy dealings

They are all at it

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Pound still dropping

A curious post from you, not least because I literally just did acknowledge the markets reaction to the budget. So, an odd response, although pleasant as ever.

I shall clarify; Whilst there has been an immediate and significant market reaction to the budget, not least because it was unexpected and contained seemingly no analysis from the Office of Budget Responsibility, as well as some perhaps unwise policies funded by borrowing, it is the fact that the US Dollar is on a remarkably strong run. Some examples:

Year on year, the dollar is..

Up 36% against the Hungarian Forint
Up 29% against the Yen
Up 27% against the Swedish Krona
Up 24% against the Polish Zloty
Up 23% against the Pound
Up 22% against the Norwegian Krone
Up 20% against the NZ Dollar
Up 20% agsainst the Korean Won
Up 20% against the Danish Krone
Up 19% against the Euro

Seeing a pattern? Nearly all of these currencies are at multi-decade lows against the dollar. If you think this is just the pound, or imply as such, you are simply wrong. The only major or western currency the dollar is down against YoY is the Russian Ruble (Down 21%).

https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies?base=usd

Theres loads of articles about the strength of the dollar - here's four, with headlines such as:

"Strong U.S. dollar is wreaking havoc across pretty much every country" [Fortune Magazine]

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-the-us-dollar-is-strengthening-133156519.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/16/business/strong-dollar.html

https://fortune.com/2022/09/07/us-dollar-price-wreaking-havoc-across-pretty-much-every-country/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63040797

Everyone acknowledges the budget was poorly handled and it remains to be seen what the impact on the economy will be, but your language is hysterical and frankly wrong. To pin it on Brexit is to wilfully ignore that the same thing in terms of inflation, energy prices and supply, currency depreciation, bond yield increases, slowing growth is happening nearly everywhere. Indeed, in terms of stock markets, PMI indicators and unemployment the situation is more serious elsewhere.

So thats why I said the bigger picture (over recent months) is about the strength of the US Dollar because it absolutely IS.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/pound-to-yen-euro-dollar-rate-b2177100.html

I also read somewhere that the pound is down by an average of ten percent against currencies other than the dollar this year, but haven’t been able to find a link to it this morning - this Government is doing its best (sometimes it does seem to be deliberate) to shred the Conservative party’s reputation for economic competence.

[Feedback]

Re: Pound still dropping

I think for once Sunak may be innocent here. He was Chancellor last month. Then there was another one. Now we've got the one who (with the strangely MIA Liz Truss) has crashed the economy - but ensured that a few of their mates made a killing in the process!

The economy hasn't crashed at all. The markets reacting is not an economy crashing.

[Feedback]

Re: Pound still dropping

A curious post from you, not least because I literally just did acknowledge the markets reaction to the budget. So, an odd response, although pleasant as ever.

I shall clarify; Whilst there has been an immediate and significant market reaction to the budget, not least because it was unexpected and contained seemingly no analysis from the Office of Budget Responsibility, as well as some perhaps unwise policies funded by borrowing, it is the fact that the US Dollar is on a remarkably strong run. Some examples:

Year on year, the dollar is..

Up 36% against the Hungarian Forint
Up 29% against the Yen
Up 27% against the Swedish Krona
Up 24% against the Polish Zloty
Up 23% against the Pound
Up 22% against the Norwegian Krone
Up 20% against the NZ Dollar
Up 20% agsainst the Korean Won
Up 20% against the Danish Krone
Up 19% against the Euro

Seeing a pattern? Nearly all of these currencies are at multi-decade lows against the dollar. If you think this is just the pound, or imply as such, you are simply wrong. The only major or western currency the dollar is down against YoY is the Russian Ruble (Down 21%).

https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies?base=usd

Theres loads of articles about the strength of the dollar - here's four, with headlines such as:

"Strong U.S. dollar is wreaking havoc across pretty much every country" [Fortune Magazine]

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-the-us-dollar-is-strengthening-133156519.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/16/business/strong-dollar.html

https://fortune.com/2022/09/07/us-dollar-price-wreaking-havoc-across-pretty-much-every-country/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63040797

Everyone acknowledges the budget was poorly handled and it remains to be seen what the impact on the economy will be, but your language is hysterical and frankly wrong. To pin it on Brexit is to wilfully ignore that the same thing in terms of inflation, energy prices and supply, currency depreciation, bond yield increases, slowing growth is happening nearly everywhere. Indeed, in terms of stock markets, PMI indicators and unemployment the situation is more serious elsewhere.

So thats why I said the bigger picture (over recent months) is about the strength of the US Dollar because it absolutely IS.

Whilst the dollar is strong as a result of the Fed pushing up interest rates and is having a medium term impact on the currency markets, the UK government's fiscal policy appears to be pulling in a different direction than the BoEs monetary policy, and that is the primary driver for the market volatility this week.

When the OBR produces its November forecast, we will begin to understand the projected impacts of the mini budget.

[life on mars]

Re: Pound still dropping

Eurozone economy
ECB officials back another big rate increase to tame inflation

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

[Organ Morgan.]

Re: Pound still dropping

I'm not into high finance and all that, but I follow several who know their onions... one is Greg Mannarino at youtube.

They all state similar: roaring inflation, then hyperinflation is a given however much the base rate is increased in the US, UK or anywhere else as a prelude to the world's financial system collapsing like an undercooked soufflé.

Then it'll be Build Back Better time.

[Rjk]

Re: Pound still dropping

https://twitter.com/CuriousUkTelly/status/1575232011056582656?t=xuCDB_fpCnyLIlq4Lr2b9g&s=19

[MOZZER2]

Re: Pound still dropping

I'm not into high finance and all that, but I follow several who know their onions... one is Greg Mannarino at youtube.

They all state similar: roaring inflation, then hyperinflation is a given however much the base rate is increased in the US, UK or anywhere else as a prelude to the world's financial system collapsing like an undercooked soufflé.

Then it'll be Build Back Better time.

Inflation in Germany jumps to 10% in September — the highest annual increase in the history of the index since World War II.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Pound still dropping

I am glad that at a time when a recession and global financial collapse is on the horizon we have a right couple of idiots in charge

Good luck to both of the hopeless feckwits

[JamesWales]

Re: Pound still dropping

Inflation in Germany jumps to 10% in September — the highest annual increase in the history of the index since World War II.

Stupid bloody Germans. Serves em right for voting Tory and voting to leave the EU.

[delmbox]

Re: Pound still dropping

Stupid bloody Germans. Serves em right for voting Tory and voting to leave the EU.

Definitely something a Tory would post

[Canton Kev]

Re: Pound still dropping

So if we’re on par/doing slightly worse than most major member states, being out of the EU doesn’t seemed to have been any benefit for us at the moment?

[Feedback]

Re: Pound still dropping

So if we’re on par/doing slightly worse than most major member states, being out of the EU doesn’t seemed to have been any benefit for us at the moment?

It would appear so. Don Quixote and windmills spring to mind.