The brexit effect

[Dorcus]

Re: The brexit effect

It's a fair question Doucas, although I don't really like the archaic terms of Brexiters, Remainers etc..it's all a bit divisive and most people don't define themselves as such.

Nonetheless, as someone who voted Leave in 2016, I would seriously question it if:

Major economic metrics were negative when comparing UK with our EU peers..lets say France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Italy etc.

The major metrics I'd consider are things like unemployment, wage growth, GDP growth, inflation, stock markets, currencies etc. Things like that.

Now on those metrics, on some cases UK looks less good, on others better, but generally speaking there is no clear economic difference between the UK and those countries, there simply isn't. Our unemployment isn't higher, our inflation isn't higher, The FTSE isn't struggling more, our currencies are all weak, GDP growth is broadly comparable.

Other metrics of course exist, there are dozens and dozens of them, but fundementally they will feed into the major ones above.

I'd also question some of this. UK exports are at a record high, and you can actually see a rise that begins after 2016

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exports-at-record-high

I do agree that trade between the EU and UK will never have been easier than when we were members, but most businesses don't trade with the EU and the counter argument to that is that trade with non EU countries should become easier - and this is where future global growth is likely.

So, that is how I would assess it, and as others have suggested, it's not all about economic matters - the freedom to develop our own laws is also a big thing, and I am particularly interested in how we can pay farmers to better maintain their land etc.

James, as events of the past few weeks strongly suggest, the freedom to develop our own laws can lead to disaster if placed in the wrong hands.

[superfeathers]

Re: The brexit effect

So make it harder and more expensive to trade with the 26 countries on our doorstep which we share a road/rail connection with and who are our biggest trade partners. To make it possibly easier to trade with countries 1000’s of miles away where produce can only arrive by plane or ship or come via the road/rail connection that already existed but now has much more expense and paperwork.

“Most businesses don’t trade with the EU”
I bet the ones that do trade more with the EU than non EU countries. Mine definitely does.

Oh well. Hopefully things improve for the ~100,000 farmers whose sector accounts for 0.4% of the economy. How times have changed, it used to be the fishermen that we did Brexit for :hehe:

I'm not sure Brexiteers don't define themselves as that anymore James but it would make sense that they are trying to wash their hands of it.

The one thing that I find really difficult is, I can't name one single thing that has improved for the better since leaving. I get that everyone who voted for it wants to wait 15-20 years to see the difference, but surely, you'd see small changes. Little improvements. Laws changing, laws being scrapped that change people's lives for the better. One law. One change. Nothing at all.

And every Brexi I mean Growth Coalition British National that I ask, can't give me any either.

The only job that Brexit created (Minister for Brexit Opportunities) has been made redundant. All I can remember coming out of that was some mumblings about how we didn't have to have standardised USB plugs. Which, although I don't lose sleep over, would've been handy surely if everyone used the same ones.

Is there suddenly going to be an explosion of change and improvement in 12 years?

[az city]

Re: The brexit effect

It's a fair question Doucas, although I don't really like the archaic terms of Brexiters, Remainers etc..it's all a bit divisive and most people don't define themselves as such.

Nonetheless, as someone who voted Leave in 2016, I would seriously question it if:

Major economic metrics were negative when comparing UK with our EU peers..lets say France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Italy etc.

The major metrics I'd consider are things like unemployment, wage growth, GDP growth, inflation, stock markets, currencies etc. Things like that.

Now on those metrics, on some cases UK looks less good, on others better, but generally speaking there is no clear economic difference between the UK and those countries, there simply isn't. Our unemployment isn't higher, our inflation isn't higher, The FTSE isn't struggling more, our currencies are all weak, GDP growth is broadly comparable.

Other metrics of course exist, there are dozens and dozens of them, but fundementally they will feed into the major ones above.

I'd also question some of this. UK exports are at a record high, and you can actually see a rise that begins after 2016

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exports-at-record-high

I do agree that trade between the EU and UK will never have been easier than when we were members, but most businesses don't trade with the EU and the counter argument to that is that trade with non EU countries should become easier - and this is where future global growth is likely.

So, that is how I would assess it, and as others have suggested, it's not all about economic matters - the freedom to develop our own laws is also a big thing, and I am particularly interested in how we can pay farmers to better maintain their land etc.

So, to summarize, when confronted by expert (we know you don't like them) assessments quantifying the permanent loss of 4% of UK GDP (based on underlying markers of the health of the UK economy), you have concluded on the basis of your deep expertise and experience in Economics that we should ignore it. Classic.

Jimbo, do tell us what your profession is and how much study of Economics you've actually done to proffer such views.

[JamesWales]

Re: The brexit effect

So, to summarize, when confronted by expert (we know you don't like them) assessments quantifying the permanent loss of 4% of UK GDP (based on underlying markers of the health of the UK economy), you have concluded on the basis of your deep expertise and experience in Economics that we should ignore it. Classic.

Jimbo, do tell us what your profession is and how much study of Economics you've actually done to proffer such views.

Another lie from you AZ. It's been less than three years since we left the EU, in which time we have had a global pandemic and a war between Europes two largest countries.

In such a time, are you saying the British economy would have grown by 2% an annum more than it has? That would be some quite stunning performance over and above our peers.

The fact is the evidence isn't there. It will emerge, given normal economic conditions in the coming years.

Now stop lying. The FT gets many things wrong and based on the basket of metrics that I suggested looking it (we were asked how we would measure it) I don't see an impact.

You show me where our unemployment is higher than our peers, or our stock market has crashed, or exports have fallen off a cliff, or house prices have crashed, or inflation is way above the EU average, or wage growth is well below etc. I'll wait.

There is very little core, hard data in that FT video, and lots of opinions from one side - there is a wealth of data that would point to a far more nuanced conclusion. Of course you will always conclude otherwise, but thats you.

If you were quicker with providing actual evidence as you were with throwing about slurs I would take you more seriously.

[JamesWales]

Re: The brexit effect

Whatever, our opinions I am sure most of us would agree that the pandemic and the war totally skew any real analysis of the costs of benefits of Brexit, right?

I would suggest the legacy on data will be long, and the war is ongoing, but assuming the Ukraine - Russia war impacts upon western Europe broadly equally, which is a rough but fair assumption, and given that we all moved out of Covid broadly speaking a year or so ago, it is only very recent data that can offer much analysis:

This is actual, real GDP growth data from 2022. Not a video. None of it is spectacular. But it doesn't show some deep Brexit impact in the period in which Covid isn't skewing everything does it?

UK 0.7% in Q1 | 0.2% in Q2
Germany 0.8% in Q1 0.1% in Q2
France -0.2% in Q1 | 0.5% in Q2
Belgium 0.5% in Q1 | 0.2% in Q2
Italy 0.1% in Q1 1.1% in Q2
Netherlands 0.4% in Q1 | 2.4% in Q2

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-growth-rate?continent=europe

And thats just GDP data - the same can be done on wage growth, inflation, stock markers, borrowing costs, exports, etc etc etc. When viewed as a whole, the conclusion AZ makes just does not stack up.

All this data is out there - you show me. Be my guest. And btw, if you disagree with the statistical experts who put it together, I won't patronise you by claiming you don't like experts, I'll listen to your opinion.

[az city]

Re: The brexit effect

Another lie from you AZ. It's been less than three years since we left the EU, in which time we have had a global pandemic and a war between Europes two largest countries.

In such a time, are you saying the British economy would have grown by 2% an annum more than it has? That would be some quite stunning performance over and above our peers.

The fact is the evidence isn't there. It will emerge, given normal economic conditions in the coming years.

Now stop lying. The FT gets many things wrong and based on the basket of metrics that I suggested looking it (we were asked how we would measure it) I don't see an impact.

You show me where our unemployment is higher than our peers, or our stock market has crashed, or exports have fallen off a cliff, or house prices have crashed, or inflation is way above the EU average, or wage growth is well below etc. I'll wait.

There is very little core, hard data in that FT video, and lots of opinions from one side - there is a wealth of data that would point to a far more nuanced conclusion. Of course you will always conclude otherwise, but thats you.

If you were quicker with providing actual evidence as you were with throwing about slurs I would take you more seriously.

Answer the questions - what expertise in Economics do you have and how much have you formally studied it?

BTW how am I lying if all I'm doing is point to evidence in the FT piece? Evidence that you don't like because it doesn't fit your narrative.

[az city]

Re: The brexit effect

Whatever, our opinions I am sure most of us would agree that the pandemic and the war totally skew any real analysis of the costs of benefits of Brexit, right?

I would suggest the legacy on data will be long, and the war is ongoing, but assuming the Ukraine - Russia war impacts upon western Europe broadly equally, which is a rough but fair assumption, and given that we all moved out of Covid broadly speaking a year or so ago, it is only very recent data that can offer much analysis:

This is actual, real GDP growth data from 2022. Not a video. None of it is spectacular. But it doesn't show some deep Brexit impact in the period in which Covid isn't skewing everything does it?

UK 0.7% in Q1 | 0.2% in Q2
Germany 0.8% in Q1 0.1% in Q2
France -0.2% in Q1 | 0.5% in Q2
Belgium 0.5% in Q1 | 0.2% in Q2
Italy 0.1% in Q1 1.1% in Q2
Netherlands 0.4% in Q1 | 2.4% in Q2

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-growth-rate?continent=europe

And thats just GDP data - the same can be done on wage growth, inflation, stock markers, borrowing costs, exports, etc etc etc. When viewed as a whole, the conclusion AZ makes just does not stack up.

All this data is out there - you show me. Be my guest. And btw, if you disagree with the statistical experts who put it together, I won't patronise you by claiming you don't like experts, I'll listen to your opinion.

It's "bias" and not "skew". Seems you don't know an awful lot about the correct terminology either.

[az city]

Re: The brexit effect

Whatever, our opinions I am sure most of us would agree that the pandemic and the war totally skew any real analysis of the costs of benefits of Brexit, right?

I would suggest the legacy on data will be long, and the war is ongoing, but assuming the Ukraine - Russia war impacts upon western Europe broadly equally, which is a rough but fair assumption, and given that we all moved out of Covid broadly speaking a year or so ago, it is only very recent data that can offer much analysis:

This is actual, real GDP growth data from 2022. Not a video. None of it is spectacular. But it doesn't show some deep Brexit impact in the period in which Covid isn't skewing everything does it?

UK 0.7% in Q1 | 0.2% in Q2
Germany 0.8% in Q1 0.1% in Q2
France -0.2% in Q1 | 0.5% in Q2
Belgium 0.5% in Q1 | 0.2% in Q2
Italy 0.1% in Q1 1.1% in Q2
Netherlands 0.4% in Q1 | 2.4% in Q2

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-growth-rate?continent=europe

And thats just GDP data - the same can be done on wage growth, inflation, stock markers, borrowing costs, exports, etc etc etc. When viewed as a whole, the conclusion AZ makes just does not stack up.

All this data is out there - you show me. Be my guest. And btw, if you disagree with the statistical experts who put it together, I won't patronise you by claiming you don't like experts, I'll listen to your opinion.

So we should only look to the LR for real evidence of Brexit effects but here's some SR evidence to make your (erroneous) point?

[JamesWales]

Re: The brexit effect

It's "bias" and not "skew". Seems you don't know an awful lot about the correct terminology either.

Ignoring real data to make some pompous smug point about terminology is just about the most AZ City thing ever. Data gets 'skewed' in a great many fields of study for goodness sake.

Stop policing peoples words and start looking at actual data

[JamesWales]

Re: The brexit effect

So we should only look to the LR for real evidence of Brexit effects but here's some SR evidence to make your (erroneous) point?

Of course long term impacts are most useful, especially with any major geopolitical change, even more so when two months after said change the global economy was thrown into utter chaos by a pandemic followed a year or two later by a war in Europe. Would you assess Scottish Independence or Welsh devolution after two years? You would be a fool to do so. These are long term decisions, as you know.

Nonetheless, at the same time, given YOU are talking about GDP, I would say actual data that disproves your theories is also valid yes. It's about a holistic debate, looking at a variety of evidence, something you rarely do. You'll cite someone's opinion, claim the world is ending and then insult anyone who offers alternative evidence.

Jesus fkn christ.

I've asked you several times - show me our peer countries that we should be performing like now? Show them. And I'll show you how on various economic factors they are in the same position.

Maybe it's because you don't live in Europe that you seemingly have no idea what is happening on this continent at the moment? Everyone is in the shit.

[az city]

Re: The brexit effect

Of course long term impacts are most useful, especially with any major geopolitical change, even more so when two months after said change the global economy was thrown into utter chaos by a pandemic followed a year or two later by a war in Europe. Would you assess Scottish Independence or Welsh devolution after two years? You would be a fool to do so. These are long term decisions, as you know.

Nonetheless, at the same time, given YOU are talking about GDP, I would say actual data that disproves your theories is also valid yes. It's about a holistic debate, looking at a variety of evidence, something you rarely do. You'll cite someone's opinion, claim the world is ending and then insult anyone who offers alternative evidence.

Jesus fkn christ.

I've asked you several times - show me our peer countries that we should be performing like now? Show them. And I'll show you how on various economic factors they are in the same position.

Maybe it's because you don't live in Europe that you seemingly have no idea what is happening on this continent at the moment? Everyone is in the shit.

You're dodging the questions...

[az city]

Re: The brexit effect

Ignoring real data to make some pompous smug point about terminology is just about the most AZ City thing ever. Data gets 'skewed' in a great many fields of study for goodness sake.

Stop policing peoples words and start looking at actual data

Actually, they are statistics. Wrong again, Jimbo.

[JamesWales]

Re: The brexit effect

You're dodging the questions...

Actually you are.

You've been asked to put up an example of a comparable European country which hasn't left the EU and which is performing notably better economically.

You can't, because they don't exist. Until you can, your central point looks very weak.

[Doucas]

Re: The brexit effect

So.. did anyone watch the video?

[Canton Kev]

Re: The brexit effect

Actually you are.

You've been asked to put up an example of a comparable European country which hasn't left the EU and which is performing notably better economically.

You can't, because they don't exist. Until you can, your central point looks very weak.

If the millstone around these countries’ necks is the EU, why aren’t we racing ahead economically?