Maths question

[Rjk]

Say on average 77% of penalties are scored.

what is the % chance that a team will score exactly 1 from 5 penalties over the course of a season?

[logic]

Re: Maths question

Say on average 77% of penalties are scored.

what is the % chance that a team will score exactly 1 from 5 penalties over the course of a season?

Who cares.

Unless any formula includes every external factor, it's meaningless.

[Rjk]

Re: Maths question

Who cares.

Unless any formula includes every external factor, it's meaningless.

it's fine to admit you don't know how to calculate it

[logic]

Re: Maths question

it's fine to admit you don't know how to calculate it

It's not that difficult as a basic figure.

It's utterly meaningless though.

[Baloo]

Re: Maths question

It's not that difficult as a basic figure.

It's utterly meaningless though.

You could just not reply

[life on mars]

Re: Maths question

Say on average 77% of penalties are scored.

what is the % chance that a team will score exactly 1 from 5 penalties over the course of a season?

77%

[The Bloop]

Re: Maths question

8%

[Pedro de la Rosa]

Re: Maths question

8%

[Feedback]

Re: Maths question

Say on average 77% of penalties are scored.

what is the % chance that a team will score exactly 1 from 5 penalties over the course of a season?

0.77 x 0.23^4

= 0.2%

then there are 5 permutations, so 1%

[Rjk]

Re: Maths question

0.77 x 0.23^4

= 0.2%

then there are 5 permutations, so 1%

we have a winner

[The Bloop]

Re: Maths question

0.77 x 0.23^4

= 0.2%

then there are 5 permutations, so 1%

we have a winner

Not strictly correct but I'd have to dig out my O level statistics exercise book to work it out.

[LeningradCowboy]

Re: Maths question

Not strictly correct but I'd have to dig out my O level statistics exercise book to work it out.

It looks pretty correct to me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial

[The Bloop]

Re: Maths question

It looks pretty correct to me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial

I'm not convinced.
I think there's 2 different questions.
1. Given the chance of scoring a pen is 0.77, what are the chances of 1 successful pen in 5 attempts, or
2. Given that you will be awarded 5 pens, what are the chances of only 1 being successful.

In the second scenario, scoring a pen with you first attempt means that your next 4 are guaranteed missed.

Either way, 1 out of 5 is pretty shit.

[splott parker]

Re: Maths question

If a Rotherham player hands the bell in the box on Thursday I hope our players crowd the ref telling him it didn’t happen.

[pipster]

Re: Maths question

Surely there are too many variants in order to predict how many would be scored. 92 league teams, 2 pen takers per team on average, weather conditions, pitch conditions, luck, dodgy bobble on the pen takers run up etc
There are soo many random options - I dont think you can accurately predict a success rate with any absolute certainty - and how boring would that be to know on average how many each team will score.