xG from Saturday

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Robinson goal 1 - xG 0.16
Robinson goal 2 - xG 0.10
Goutas goal - xG 0.12

In other words, none of the goals were seen as likely, with Robinson's second goal the most difficult of the 3 to score from.

The shot Robinson had just before half time that he fluffed was xG 0.15, so was seen as more likely to be scored than his second or Goutas's goal. Chambers' shot that was saved was 0.11.

Overall, our xG from Saturday was 0.8 but we scored 3.

Discus.

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: xG from Saturday

Robinson goal 1 - xG 0.16
Robinson goal 2 - xG 0.10
Goutas goal - xG 0.12

In other words, none of the goals were seen as likely, with Robinson's second goal the most difficult of the 3 to score from.

The shot Robinson had just before half time that he fluffed was xG 0.15, so was seen as more likely to be scored than his second or Goutas's goal. Chambers' shot that was saved was 0.11.

Overall, our xG from Saturday was 0.8 but we scored 3.

Discus.

All the goals were good and well taken, but Robinsons' two were outstanding, his finishing was superb on Saturday, his confidence should be right up after that.

[PhyllisStant]

Re: xG from Saturday

All the goals were good and well taken, but Robinsons' two were outstanding, his finishing was superb on Saturday, his confidence should be right up after that.

Doesn't help that the Jack's GK is dreadful. Punching and flapping at crosses and slo-mo reaction to Robbo's first.

[Rjk]

Re: xG from Saturday

Doesn't help that the Jack's GK is dreadful. Punching and flapping at crosses and slo-mo reaction to Robbo's first.

probably wasn't expecting Robinson to get his shot away and it was right in the corner. ,The post-shot xG for the shot was 0.79 so it doesn't seem like a howler.

[binman]

Re: xG from Saturday

Doesn't help that the Jack's GK is dreadful. Punching and flapping at crosses and slo-mo reaction to Robbo's first.

I've thought that too - apparently he's rated quite highly but he looked like a right flapper to me

[Rjk]

Re: xG from Saturday

Robinson goal 1 - xG 0.16
Robinson goal 2 - xG 0.10
Goutas goal - xG 0.12

In other words, none of the goals were seen as likely, with Robinson's second goal the most difficult of the 3 to score from.

The shot Robinson had just before half time that he fluffed was xG 0.15, so was seen as more likely to be scored than his second or Goutas's goal. Chambers' shot that was saved was 0.11.

Overall, our xG from Saturday was 0.8 but we scored 3.

Discus.

Taking the numbers at face value you'd say that on another day we might have scored 1 or even 0 - which is fair enough really.

Professional football stats people always guard against reading too much into individual shot xG and even individual game xG, and that it's a better metric when looked at over a run of games (to even out some of the noise you get with a small sample size.)

The impressive thing for me is that we restricted Swansea to 0.3 xG - almost 2/3 of which came after the game was already won.
This after we restricted Watford to about 0.1 xG for the first 86 minutes of the previous game.
those are really impressive numbers - if we can keep that up we will shoot up the table.