How many points to avoid relegation?

[Former Labour leader]

Not attempting to do an Eric, just a bit of a guess, but I reckon, judging by current points, 48 should be enough to see us safe for another year.
At the moment only Plymouth look gone, with probably as many as 8 other teams in a scrap to avoid filling the other 2 places.
Looking at our remaining fixtures 6 are against teams in that group and 5 against teams in the top6.
So if, as i reckon we need another 20 points from 18 matches, we will need to win several of the matches against the teams near us, a couple v midtable sides and sneak a few points v top6.
Not going to be east and it would not surprise me if everything comes down to our last game.v Norwich.

[MOZZER2]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

51

[the other bob wilson]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

51

Yes, after what happened to Birmingham last year, I think we need to be looking at fifty points at least.

My biggest concern is that we're still only winning every four and a bit games, that rate has to improve (only Plymouth have won less games than us).

[olderblue]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

Yes, after what happened to Birmingham last year, I think we need to be looking at fifty points at least.

My biggest concern is that we're still only winning every four and a bit games, that rate has to improve (only Plymouth have won less games than us).

50 points as a minimum, the relegation mini league could be expanded, with Derby and the JB’s getting dragged into it.

Oxford have gone on an incredible run since Rowatt took over and look to be pulling away from trouble?

It is the Championship and that can all change as we know, but we really need to turn the draws into wins to get us well clear of the bottom three.

With rumours of Etete and Meite leaving this month, maybe the club are seeing something in Simic and Davies being available?

I still think we need a couple more in before the window shuts

[A Quiet Monkfish]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

One point from the first seven games will ensure it'll be down to the wire [at best]. Even if we'd picked up another 3 points it would have completely changed the outlook off and on the pitch. I'd say 50 points minimum and with some of the fixtures coming up I would say it's more unlikely we get to 50 than likely. That's why we need to strengthen the squad, midfield especially. With Turnbull out long term, we have very little creativity there..

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

It's an almost impossible total to predict. Over the last 25 years, 46 points is the average needed to stay up. Last season Birmingham went down with 50 points, the 7th time in those 25 years a side has gone down with 50 or more points - in 2012/13 Peterborough went down with 54 points, while the same side went down with 37 points 9 seasons later in the same 22nd position.

It doesn't help to look at points totals at this point in previous seasons, either, as the next little table will show:

2023/24:

Team in 22nd position after 28 games - 24 points
Team in 22nd position after 46 games - 50 points
Difference - 26 points

2022/23:

Team in 22nd position after 28 games - 26 points
Team in 22nd position after 46 games - 44 points
Difference - 18 points

2021/22:

Team in 22nd position after 28 games - 20 points
Team in 22nd position after 46 games - 37 points
Difference - 17 points

2020/21:

Team in 22nd position after 28 games - 28 points
Team in 22nd position after 46 games - 43 points
Difference - 15 points

2019/20:

Team in 22nd position after 28 games - 23 points
Team in 22nd position after 46 games - 48 points
Difference - 25 points

As we can see, even over the last 5 seasons there's been a real fluctuation in the number of points sides have won over the last 18 games of the season. Currently the side in 22nd position is on 26 points, which is higher than norm over the last few seasons, yet over that time, the two seasons with the highest points in 22nd position after 28 games haven't been the two seasons with the highest points in 22nd at the end of the season.

The fact that 22nd position currently has 26 points means diddly squat, though that probably rules out a low total for safety at the end of the season. There might be another clue, though.

Over the last 5 seasons, when there's been a greater gap in points between 22nd and 20th after 28 games, the points total gained by 22nd position from game 28 to the end of the season has been higher. That's probably not very well explained, but here's examples:

Last season, after 28 games, the side in 20th had 32 points, the side in 22nd had 24 (8 point difference). The points required to finish the season in 22nd was 26 higher.

In 2020/21, after 28 games, the side in 20th had 31 points, the side in 22nd had 28 (3 point difference). The points required to finish the season in 22nd was only 15 higher.

Portsmouth are currently in 18th with fewer than 30 points, which is very unusual. Most sides in 20th after 28 games have more than 30 points, so for there to be 3 points between 18th and 22nd is quite rare.

If I was going to make a prediction on all of that, I'd plump for no more than 45 points being needed for safety. Too many sides with not too many points and I don't see anyone above Portsmouth being dragged into it. Bookmark it and let me know when I've got it spectacularly wrong!!

[Grangenders]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

So maybe 5 wins and a couple of draws would be enough? But where are these wins coming from? Assuming we don’t win away again this season (I don’t fancy our chances at Portsmouth and no doubt Plymouth will get their first win in about 18 games against us) then we need to win 5 of our 8 remaining home games. If we assume Burnley beat us then it’s 5 out of 7 ‘winnable’ matches and our record in these types of games this season isn’t too great. Failing this it could be down to drawing a lot of matches and scraping four wins, or picking up an unlikely win or even two away - Blackburn? Preston? Or God forbid, Norwich on the last day…

[BLUETIT]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

So maybe 5 wins and a couple of draws would be enough? But where are these wins coming from? Assuming we don’t win away again this season (I don’t fancy our chances at Portsmouth and no doubt Plymouth will get their first win in about 18 games against us) then we need to win 5 of our 8 remaining home games. If we assume Burnley beat us then it’s 5 out of 7 ‘winnable’ matches and our record in these types of games this season isn’t too great. Failing this it could be down to drawing a lot of matches and scraping four wins, or picking up an unlikely win or even two away - Blackburn? Preston? Or God forbid, Norwich on the last day…

Gary Bell and Bobby Woodruff will sort out a win at Norwich (one for our older viewers):wave:

[Rjk]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

50 points is 1.22 points per game from now until the end of the season.

Since Riza took over we've averaged 1.22 points per game.

It could be tight!

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

50 points is 1.22 points per game from now until the end of the season.

Since Riza took over we've averaged 1.22 points per game.

It could be tight!

We look a better team now for the second half of the season and will pick up more than 1.22 per game. We are getting better in both boxes scoring more, Robo is on form and Salech looks decent and we have Davies back soon. We need to turn more of the draws into wins. From now until the end of February we will pull away, so many winnable games.

Millwall and Derby are in big trouble and I think Stoke will struggle, we will be fine and stay up comfortably again.

[North Cardiff Blue]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

Look at the recent form from

9th - Cardiff
13 - Portsmouth
18- Stoke
21 - Millwall
22 - Derby
23 - Plymouth
24 - Luton

https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=2

We need to smash Derby on Saturday !

[Don Corleone]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

I think 50 points too as it looks like only Plymouth will be cut adrift, the last 2 places could be decided on the final day!

[Hilts]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

Look at the recent form from

9th - Cardiff
13 - Portsmouth
18- Stoke
21 - Millwall
22 - Derby
23 - Plymouth
24 - Luton

https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=2

We need to smash Derby on Saturday !

1 nil will do.

[City123]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

I'd say a slight concern is that in spite of our purple patch since Oxford we've only picked up 2 league wins from 6. I don't think its controversial to imagine we'll see another downturn at some point, we really need to get some wins on the board from the next month or so

[Rjk]

Re: How many points to avoid relegation?

I'd say a slight concern is that in spite of our purple patch since Oxford we've only picked up 2 league wins from 6. I don't think its controversial to imagine we'll see another downturn at some point, we really need to get some wins on the board from the next month or so

Yes it doesn't feel as though we've got as many points as we perhaps could have in this unbeaten run, but it is definitely encouraging that we are playing better, especially defensively.
Perhaps when we have a poor run of form we will get some undeserved points to balance it out.