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Goal difference our Achilles heel...

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  • #16
    Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

    Originally posted by kendoddsdadsdogsdead View Post
    Exactly...by all accounts they slaughtered Middlesbrough the other day...without scoring..
    I saw the highlights, Luton missed numerous chances and the Middlesbrough keeper pulled off a series of fine saves, they very much think they’re in with a chance of staying up and also probably think their squad is “too good to go down”

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    • #17
      Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

      Originally posted by lincoln blue View Post
      99 times out of 100 the teams with the worst goal difference are relegated in all divisions!
      These days...

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      • #18
        Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

        Originally posted by lincoln blue View Post
        99 times out of 100 the teams with the worst goal difference are relegated in all divisions!
        Simply not true

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        • #19
          Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

          Originally posted by lincoln blue View Post
          99 times out of 100 the teams with the worst goal difference are relegated in all divisions!
          No.

          As it stands it wouldn't apply to 3 out of the 4 divisions.

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          • #20
            Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

            Originally posted by Hilts View Post
            No.

            As it stands it wouldn't apply to 3 out of the 4 divisions.
            The season hasn't ended yet, very rare for a teams with shocking goal differences/averages to survive!

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            • #21
              Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

              Originally posted by lincoln blue View Post
              The season hasn't ended yet, very rare for a teams with shocking goal differences/averages to survive!
              Birmingham were relegated last season with a goal difference of -15. Cardiff City finished 12th with a goal difference of -17. Meanwhile, Sheffield Wednesday finished 20th with a goal difference of -24.

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              • #22
                Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

                In 2020/21, Rotherham were relegated with a goal difference of -16. Four teams had worse goal differences but survived.

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                • #23
                  Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

                  I’m a firm believer that goal difference gives you some extra insight into how a team is doing, and can be a reasonable predictor for whether a team is likely to struggle or thrive.

                  Yet, in theory, a team can be relatively safe, even if they repeatedly lose 1 match, draw 1 match and win 1 match, with a goal difference of -2 for each set of 3 matches.

                  Gives them a total of about 60 points and a goal difference of -30

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                  • #24
                    Re: Goal difference our Achilles heel...

                    Hi guys, copy this into a spreadsheet and try some guestimatesCity run-in.jpg

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