Senedd election prediction

[LeningradCowboy]

Re: Senedd election prediction

I don't know, Johnson got virtually everything wrong with Covid during 2020 and it didn't do him, or his party, any harm.

What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?

[Hilts]

Re: Senedd election prediction

I'm genuinely surprised by how well Labour have done. I think there's been a fair amount of "anyone bar the Tories" about this election. There had been predictions that the Conservatives could even be the largest party in the Senedd or that they were at least going to make huge gains. I feel this election is as much a two-fingered salute to the Tories as it is any endorsement of Labour. Votes for Plaid were mainly going to affect Labour and I know of people who were torn between the two, who ended up voting Labour to ensure the Tories didn't get in through the back door.

Yes I agree. I wasnt going to vote. The thought of RT Davies as First Minister was so unthinkable that I voted.

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?

Both got the majority wrong but at this date (this may change in future) I think we can say Drakeford got it less wrong than Boris in a couple of key areas:

Drakeford made a better fist of managing autumn/winter period by:

- implementing a fire-break when this was the advice of the scientists - Sunak and Boris listened to anti-covid scientists instead
- locking down the whole of Wales when more transmissible Kent variant recognised (see how tier system has been dropped in England since start of the new year)
- not sending schools back for one day

Over half the deaths experienced in the UK were in autumn/winter time when the most was known about the pandemic and Drakeford took stronger and earlier action to manage the number of deaths, though not as well as Sturgeon in Scotland.

In addition you could add:

- different rules for young children who were least at risk from a much earlier stage.

On the flips side you would argue:

- More open last summer in England which gave a timely boost to their economy
- More open outside earlier this year in England which is safer than inside

But I'd also argue:

- Scotland got the best approach in terms of recognising children and outside was safest the earliest

Each nation within the UK fecked up in the first wave, perhaps NI the least, but England or Northern Ireland fecked up the autumn/winter period the most even if they still all got things wrong.

Boris now acting more cautious than needs be so, in combination with successful vaccine roll-out, people forget how needlessly risky his government's actions were during autumn/winter when most was known about the virus.

At this time people haven't recognised downside of Drakeford's cautious approach, but that may hit during recovery if ours is slower/more difficult than in England's. It's likely that Labour will point more to Brexit and Tories more to management of Labour to confuse things.

[Hilts]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Drakeford was also more cautious and we didnt have the fust pumping bullsh!t like world class track and trace.

Lets not forget his unforgivable backing of Dominic Cummings

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Yes I agree. I wasnt going to vote. The thought of RT Davies as First Minister was so unthinkable that I voted.

Do we have a strong Tory candidate in Wales? RT Davies is such a populist moron and highest profile of the rest are more interested in getting a peerage from PM than serving in Wales.

Conservative Wales should be a strong party but Tories are far, far more interested in winning English seats than Welsh ones.

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Where are these final 8 seats?!

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Senedd election prediction

What did Johnson get wrong that Drakeford didn't?

Refusing to lockdown in the autumn, refusing to lockdown over Christmas, going on holiday during February 2020, not attending the first five Cobra meetings on Covid, ignoring scientific advice on shaking hands, attending rugby internationals at packed stadiums, messing up school returns, messing up track and trace, messing up exam results, messing up free meals for children ........
give me time, you caught me on the hop with that question.

[J R Hartley]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Refusing to lockdown in the autumn, refusing to lockdown over Christmas, going on holiday during February 2020, not attending the first five Cobra meetings on Covid, ignoring scientific advice on shaking hands, attending rugby internationals at packed stadiums, messing up school returns, messing up track and trace, messing up exam results, messing up free meals for children ........
give me time, you caught me on the hop with that question.

Herd immunity

[BLUETIT]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Just listening to Radio Wales, seems Leanne Wood is/was a very sore loser, according to the other candidates

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

BBC reported that Tories won that list seat by 21, Nation.cymru reporting that it was Labour...

8 seats are soon. So far Green's have outperformed Abolish but South Wales East is probably the former's best chance which hasn't been called yet.

[life on mars]

Re: Senedd election prediction

I agree that the issue of Covid has helped Drakeford to a certain Degree, but it can work against a politician if they get enough wrong or if like some people think, he has no charisma etc. Drakeford has obviously got more right than wrong for most of the electorate.

Do agree, eyes will be on him now post Covid recovery as some areas of our country were failing pre Covid , great chance for his party to avoid becoming another North East England .

[life on mars]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Just listening to Radio Wales, seems Leanne Wood is/was a very sore loser, according to the other candidates

Much prefer Adam Price , Wales does appear not to have an appetite for Independence like Scotland ,w hich probably pleases both Tories and Labour me thinks 🤔

[Bruce Parry]

Re: Senedd election prediction

is this because you voted plaid

No. It’s because I’m fed up of the likes of you and your generation, you care more about the Conservatives than you do the people of Wales. We’ve had a lifetime of mediocrity and we’re falling behind. Regardless of who I want to govern, the current system is failing us. 5 more years of a Labour held Senydd and Tory Whitehall just means more of the same but hey ho the tories didn’t gain seats so all is good.

[life on mars]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Refusing to lockdown in the autumn, refusing to lockdown over Christmas, going on holiday during February 2020, not attending the first five Cobra meetings on Covid, ignoring scientific advice on shaking hands, attending rugby internationals at packed stadiums, messing up school returns, messing up track and trace, messing up exam results, messing up free meals for children ........
give me time, you caught me on the hop with that question.

One thing Boris did get right was the gamble to thrust millions of tax payers money Into vaccine research, production and deployment, probably best in the world .

I clearly remember some doubting his decision including Sir Kier , as at the time there was no guarantee of success and there were calls to join the European model , glad he never 👍

[surge]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Much prefer Adam Price , Wales does appear not to have an appetite for Independence like Scotland ,w hich probably pleases both Tories and Labour me thinks ��

At the moment Tory policies/behaviour of Westminster push Scotland towards independence which in turn pushes England towards Tories. Tories flipping love growing independence voice.