Senedd election prediction

[City123]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Is it not because independence isn't an issue in this election and it is possible to support independence and vote for someone other than Plaid?

I also think it's too simplistic to suggest that Labour will only lose votes to the Tories (and hence Plaid don't pick up or lose voters accordingly).

I think the next election might be the "independence election", especially if Scotland goes. The surge has come too late for it to really impact this one, especially considering the current conditions

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Re: Senedd election prediction

I think the next election might be the "independence election", especially if Scotland goes. The surge has come too late for it to really impact this one, especially considering the current conditions

Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.

[Former Labour leader]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.

If Labour's vote holds up it will be due to Mark Drakeford and his handling of covid. If Tories make gains, as I expect them too, it will be due to Boris Johnson's vaccine bounce and Brexit. Plaid will be squeezed by these two parties and will have a disappointing election. Independence for Wales is a very long way off.

[DubaiDai]

Re: Senedd election prediction

2 questions:

1. Do you believe everyone who wants independence would only vote Plaid?

2. Do you believe everyone who votes Plaid wants independence?

Exactly. Don’t mind admitting to voting Plaid Cymru although would vote against independence.
Would like to see Wales governed by someone other than labour (not going to happen I know) as after 22 years their achievements could be listed on a fag packet

[Wozza16]

Re: Senedd election prediction

There seems to be a large amount of labour voters turning to plaid, at least on the regional list. I can see plaid improving on their seats last time and it’s a win win for them.

As long as Plaid maintain or improve seats and number of votes which does look likely, if the Tories do well and weaken Labours stance considerably on last time then Plaids negotiation power increases with every seat that labour loses.

In regards to the independence debate a lot of Labour supporters are at least considering it now and an 825% increase in paying YesCymru members (in less than 12 months) show there is an increased appetite. The seats to watch are the pro-Indy labour candidates, if they win their seats in addition to Plaid winning seats they could make up a solid portion of the Senedd.

[kendoddsdadsdogsdead]

Re: Senedd election prediction

We will see tomorrow if left leaning Labour voters have deserted Labour for plaid

Or the Labour vote has gone to the tories

If people want independence then why are they voting Labour and not plaid ?

They sound like crackpots

probably wanking down Lambeth

[the other bob wilson]

Re: Senedd election prediction

If I had to guess which party a story like this is good news for, I'd probably say Plaid, but who knows really?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56766948

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

There seems to be a large amount of labour voters turning to plaid, at least on the regional list. I can see plaid improving on their seats last time and it’s a win win for them.

As long as Plaid maintain or improve seats and number of votes which does look likely, if the Tories do well and weaken Labours stance considerably on last time then Plaids negotiation power increases with every seat that labour loses.

In regards to the independence debate a lot of Labour supporters are at least considering it now and an 825% increase in paying YesCymru members (in less than 12 months) show there is an increased appetite. The seats to watch are the pro-Indy labour candidates, if they win their seats in addition to Plaid winning seats they could make up a solid portion of the Senedd.

how many members makes up this yes cymru group ?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

probably wanking down Lambeth

There's a load of Kents down the BBC want sorting out

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Exactly. Don’t mind admitting to voting Plaid Cymru although would vote against independence.
Would like to see Wales governed by someone other than labour (not going to happen I know) as after 22 years their achievements could be listed on a fag packet

in Wales social care costs 100 per week

in England its 700 per week

[Wozza16]

Re: Senedd election prediction

how many members makes up this yes cymru group ?

About 19,000.

Welsh Labour was 25,000 in 2018, this would almost certainly dropped since then. YesCymru are closing in fast, considering it was only set up 6 years ago and was 2,000 this time last year. Boris is seeing to that

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

Yes, agreed. Covid is the real issue for this election. There is also the perception by some that Plaid = nationalism, yet independence doesn't = nationalism and that it's entirely possible to be interested in independence without being a nationalist.

this is all very romantic but when those pro independence are put under scrutiny regarding how Wales is going to generate the income to be independent please don't say wind farms or Europe as the first is comedy gold and loads of us Taffs voted to leave the EU

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Re: Senedd election prediction

About 19,000.

Welsh Labour was 25,000 in 2018, this would almost certainly dropped since then. YesCymru are closing in fast, considering it was only set up 6 years ago and was 2,000 this time last year. Boris is seeing to that

but thats still chicken feed

Either loads of people start voting plaid or another independence party is set up and people vote for that 🤔

[goats]

Re: Senedd election prediction

I think it’ll end up around

Labour - 25
Plaid - 16
Tory - 14
Lib Dem - 1
Abolish - 2
Greens - 2

Chuck down your predictions, winner gets bragging rights for 5 years

Come on Plaid!

Too much welshness already....trying to give all cardiff suburbs Welsh names ffs....ridiculous. No one is going to use them

[goats]

Re: Senedd election prediction

in Wales social care costs 100 per week

in England its 700 per week

I guess you get what you pay for, it’s a shocking state of affairs here. Only encountered it once, absolute shambles