127 is the answer

[JamesWales]

Re: 127 is the answer

That’s simplistic, one-eyed bollocks.

Feedy owns you.

When you get called out, you keep replying with insults.

[az city]

Re: 127 is the answer

I disagree with you. Now quantify your prediction, so we can assess it. I'm happy to.

My friend, I’ve decided not to engage any more. You disagree with the basic principles of simple logic apparently so there is no point in debating with you.

[JamesWales]

Re: 127 is the answer

My friend, I’ve decided not to engage any more. You disagree with the basic principles of simple logic apparently so there is no point in debating with you.

All I've asked is for you to apply some predictions to your theory, so we can assess how accurate your theory is. It may be that my predictions (that you labelled as bollocks or bullshit or some such sophisticated term) may be substantially more accurate than your own.

Looks like we won't get to find out.

[Feedback]

Re: 127 is the answer

Strings attached include rules on things such as procurement, immigration, state subsidies, primacy of national law, EU contributions of circa £10bn a year etc.

there is so much wrong with this I'm not sure where to start.

Whilst the EU may have issued regulations or directives, it was down to each national legislature to interpret and enact their own laws which conformed to the aforementioned regulations and directives.

Immigration was down to the individual state, although internal migration within the EU had no (or very little) restriction.

Ensuring limited state subsidies are a good thing as this stops larger states such as France subsidising their inefficient farms and coal mines, impeding competition.

As an economic student you will be aware that there are always fiscal transfers from the richer parts of a customs union to the poorer parts. £10bn for access to the free market was much less than we're paying now in tariffs.

I don't argue that the EU burdened business with red tape, nor should there be a bonfire of regulations, but it required us to view our economy as one; from Bridgend to Bucharest, with zero protections within that - that was deregulation element.

In terms of the regulation element, it actively prevents access to the fastest growing global economies. So it's laissez-faire internallly and protectionist externally.

make your mind up. you are pro and anti EU red tape at the same time. you seem to be saying that there was not enough red tape and too much at the same time. Is this Schroedingers red tape?

I think countries should be free to make their own decisions better, and I think that is what will happen going forward. In short, we sacrifice a slightly less good deal with the EU, for greater deals globally, whilst regaining controls over levers of our economy.

we are still going to buy most of our goods from the EU, albeit at a higher rate. We're not suddenly going to start buying almost all of our imports from the USA, Australia and the Far East.

and how is this being self sufficient?

[JamesWales]

Re: 127 is the answer

there is so much wrong with this I'm not sure where to start.

Whilst the EU may have issued regulations or directives, it was down to each national legislature to interpret and enact their own laws which conformed to the aforementioned regulations and directives.

Immigration was down to the individual state, although internal migration within the EU had no (or very little) restriction.

Ensuring limited state subsidies are a good thing as this stops larger states such as France subsidising their inefficient farms and coal mines, impeding competition.

As an economic student you will be aware that there are always fiscal transfers from the richer parts of a customs union to the poorer parts. £10bn for access to the free market was much less than we're paying now in tariffs.


make your mind up. you are pro and anti EU red tape at the same time. you seem to be saying that there was not enough red tape and too much at the same time. Is this Schroedingers red tape?

we are still going to buy most of our goods from the EU, albeit at a higher rate. We're not suddenly going to start buying almost all of our imports from the USA, Australia and the Far East.

and how is this being self sufficient?

We are clearly coming at this from different angles and positions, and that's fine. I would add that I am where we are. It really is no use wishing we were still in the EU single market, because it isn't happening, at the very least not until some time after the next general election, depending on what platforms parties stand on and who wins, and even then it would take years.

In short, we have to see how this is going to work, so we can spend years crying over spilt brexit, or we can get on with it.

As I mentioned, i was 45/55 on the original question of remain or leave, so I get your arguments. I understand that the deal we now have with the EU is less good than it was from a trade perspective, but I think, on balance, the trade disadvantages can be offset by trading advantages elsewhere (in economies growing far quicker) and in terms of being nimbler to react (vaccines a classic example) and in terms of giving society a few more protections from the 'strings attached' to EU membership - for example I think managed immigration from the EU is better than unmanaged, and I think being able to circumvent state aid rules in limited examples can be a good thing too.

And I don't want us to be self-sufficient, I just want us to be more self-sufficient. I think shorter, more sustainable supply chains is probably a good thing on balance, certainly is from an environmental perspective, and tentatively it seems the motor industry is reacting to that positively. I think moving on from the 'just in time' economy can bring benefits.

But we shall see. All I ask if that we look at real world data and compare ourselves properly to the EU as opposed to using isolated, anecdotal data or only listen to sectors that will be more adversely affected, because even though I think on balance the UK will be better off, I recognise that this doesn't mean every sector in the economy will be.

[Feedback]

Re: 127 is the answer

We are clearly coming at this from different angles and positions, and that's fine. I would add that I am where we are. It really is no use wishing we were still in the EU single market, because it isn't happening, at the very least not until some time after the next general election, depending on what platforms parties stand on and who wins, and even then it would take years.

In short, we have to see how this is going to work, so we can spend years crying over spilt brexit, or we can get on with it.

As I mentioned, i was 45/55 on the original question of remain or leave, so I get your arguments. I understand that the deal we now have with the EU is less good than it was from a trade perspective, but I think, on balance, the trade disadvantages can be offset by trading advantages elsewhere (in economies growing far quicker) and in terms of being nimbler to react (vaccines a classic example) and in terms of giving society a few more protections from the 'strings attached' to EU membership - for example I think managed immigration from the EU is better than unmanaged, and I think being able to circumvent state aid rules in limited examples can be a good thing too.

And I don't want us to be self-sufficient, I just want us to be more self-sufficient. I think shorter, more sustainable supply chains is probably a good thing on balance, certainly is from an environmental perspective, and tentatively it seems the motor industry is reacting to that positively. I think moving on from the 'just in time' economy can bring benefits.

But we shall see. All I ask if that we look at real world data and compare ourselves properly to the EU as opposed to using isolated, anecdotal data or only listen to sectors that will be more adversely affected, because even though I think on balance the UK will be better off, I recognise that this doesn't mean every sector in the economy will be.

we're seeing the effects of managed immigration with food shortages, lack of drivers, inflation. huzzah!

now I have to confess I have no idea what your position is. you want free trade with the rest of the world but shorter supply lines. In terms of supply lines, we can't get much shorter than crossing the sleive.

[JamesWales]

Re: 127 is the answer

we're seeing the effects of managed immigration with food shortages, lack of drivers, inflation. huzzah!

now I have to confess I have no idea what your position is. you want free trade with the rest of the world but shorter supply lines. In terms of supply lines, we can't get much shorter than crossing the sleive.

I think food shortages is a bit of an exaggeration, and probably pretty offensive to much of the world. We've discussed the driver situation and I've provided a link that shows very clearly that inflation in the UK is lower than the eurozone and many EU (and global countries).

In terms of the second point; I could ask the same of you. You seem to believe the answer to society's problems is a totally laissez faire economy yet you support membership of an organisation that expressly forbids any member from creating bilateral free-trade agreements with other countries in the world. Which is it?

Moreover, I'm in 2021, dealing with the reality of the situation and focusing on positives. It's better than being stuck in 2016 and focusing on negatives.

We don't agree on it, but that's irrelevant (and absolutely fine!) What is important is that we focus on the matter in hand and find the best way through it. You just saying "well, we should join the single market" doesn't solve anything. Campaign for it if you wish, but it would be many years away so doesn't help whatsoever now.

[Croesy Blue]

Re: 127 is the answer

I think food shortages is a bit of an exaggeration, and probably pretty offensive to much of the world. We've discussed the driver situation and I've provided a link that shows very clearly that inflation in the UK is lower than the eurozone and many EU (and global countries).

Here’s a new one we can’t complain about food shortages because we aren’t as bad as 3rd world counties :hehe:

Has anyone admitted they were wrong to vote for this shit show yet? Still waiting for a tangible benefit of it.

[caerkid]

Re: 127 is the answer

We could have re-joined the single market. Teresa May's deal pretty much advocated that, but people were too busy calling everyone racist and demanding a new referendum to accept it, so we are where we are.

Sorry to go back a few pages but this gave me the best laugh I've had in ages. Boris' utter failure of an 'oven ready deal' was the fault of remainers ? If we all just believed really, really hard it would have been so much better obviously.

[Feedback]

Re: 127 is the answer

I think food shortages is a bit of an exaggeration, and probably pretty offensive to much of the world. We've discussed the driver situation and I've provided a link that shows very clearly that inflation in the UK is lower than the eurozone and many EU (and global countries).

firstly, we are experiencing food shortages in comparison to pre Brexit. Arguing that we're currently better off than the third world is not really an argument, and it paints a picture of someone clutching at straws.

As for inflation, it has already been said that the Eurozone and EU has differing inflation than our own. Again you cannot compare the two because they are different customs unions and markets. What next? we're doing better than Zimbabwe or Venezuela so we should be thankful. Inflation is at nearly 4% and it hasn't been that high for many a year.

In terms of the second point; I could ask the same of you. You seem to believe the answer to society's problems is a totally laissez faire economy yet you support membership of an organisation that expressly forbids any member from creating bilateral free-trade agreements with other countries in the world. Which is it?

when you answer a question with a question it tells us you have no answer of your own. But I'll humour you. Firstly, I don't believe in a totally free market, I may have used to, but opinions do change. However, ignoring that point as that is not what the one you were making, wanting to have free markets, free movement of people and free movement of capital and goods without state interference, in my opinion, is a good thing. We had it in the EU and if it means we don't get to buy bamboo from the Vietnamese duty free but it does mean 500m people are free to live and work amongst each other without state interference, I'll take it.

Life is not so binary as you make out, and if it is a choice between being part of a large economic bloc that has freedom of its people at its heart, then I'll take that over being able to make free trade deals but at the same time blocking people from moving around freely and without interference. And FWIW, I was very much in favour of Schengen.

Moreover, I'm in 2021, dealing with the reality of the situation and focusing on positives. It's better than being stuck in 2016 and focusing on negatives.

Maybe we should have just accepted Hitler's inexorable rise to power in the 1930s as such a fait accompli and let him get on with it. and no, I'm not equating the two before you descend into apoplexy. The point being is that Farage started his folly in the 1990s and 20+ years later he got his dream. The more we point out that we are better of in the EU, the more likely it is that we will have another referendum on re-joining. Do you think the SNP have just given up?

We don't agree on it, but that's irrelevant (and absolutely fine!) What is important is that we focus on the matter in hand and find the best way through it. You just saying "well, we should join the single market" doesn't solve anything. Campaign for it if you wish, but it would be many years away so doesn't help whatsoever now.

Why doesn't it solve anything? The EU would have us back tomorrow if we asked. Notwithstanding that point, we are here now because of Brexit. EU lorry drivers leaving because they feel unwelcome (who can blame them), fruit pickers going home because they feel unwelcome (who can blame them), shortages in the hospitality industry, the list goes on.

we had upwards of 2m or more EU nationals working here, many doing the type of work some Brits think are beneath them. Hard working people who work contributing towards a better society for all of us and we turned our backs on them and said we think we're better than them. You'll excuse me if I'm not frasmotic, unuspeptic, even compunctuous with glee. Its a shit show and we made it clear to our closest neighbours what we think of them.

[the other bob wilson]

Re: 127 is the answer

Seems Johnson is going to portray what's been happening in this country in the past few months as part of his master plan in his conference speech today.

Going back sixty years or so ago, my mother had been brought up a Tory and had voted for them all of her life until the she heard the Prime Minister of the time, Harold Macmillan, tell her that she, and millions like her, "had never had it so good" - this was while her husband was having to go away to work five days in the midlands every week to provide for her and her young son who were living in a few rented rooms in Paget Street, Grangetown.

My mother's political thinking changed completely the day she heard a Tory PM, who couldn't begin to understand what life was like for her, telling her what was just a load of old bollox.

By rights, there should be huge numbers across the country who react the same way today when Johnson spouts his rubbish, but there won't be, because for the nodding dogs who follow him and his party these days, supporting the Conservative party has become like supporting a football team whereby you're blinded to all sorts of poor decision making and hopeless outcomes by thinking along the lines of "but their my team and I always support them".

I'll credit Johnson with one thing, although it's often dressed up by feeble jokes and flowery vocabulary, he does have the capacity to portray total nonsense as fact with a completely straight face.

[JamesWales]

Re: 127 is the answer

firstly, we are experiencing food shortages in comparison to pre Brexit. Arguing that we're currently better off than the third world is not really an argument, and it paints a picture of someone clutching at straws.

As for inflation, it has already been said that the Eurozone and EU has differing inflation than our own. Again you cannot compare the two because they are different customs unions and markets. What next? we're doing better than Zimbabwe or Venezuela so we should be thankful. Inflation is at nearly 4% and it hasn't been that high for many a year.

when you answer a question with a question it tells us you have no answer of your own. But I'll humour you. Firstly, I don't believe in a totally free market, I may have used to, but opinions do change. However, ignoring that point as that is not what the one you were making, wanting to have free markets, free movement of people and free movement of capital and goods without state interference, in my opinion, is a good thing. We had it in the EU and if it means we don't get to buy bamboo from the Vietnamese duty free but it does mean 500m people are free to live and work amongst each other without state interference, I'll take it.

Life is not so binary as you make out, and if it is a choice between being part of a large economic bloc that has freedom of its people at its heart, then I'll take that over being able to make free trade deals but at the same time blocking people from moving around freely and without interference. And FWIW, I was very much in favour of Schengen.

Maybe we should have just accepted Hitler's inexorable rise to power in the 1930s as such a fait accompli and let him get on with it. and no, I'm not equating the two before you descend into apoplexy. The point being is that Farage started his folly in the 1990s and 20+ years later he got his dream. The more we point out that we are better of in the EU, the more likely it is that we will have another referendum on re-joining. Do you think the SNP have just given up?

Why doesn't it solve anything? The EU would have us back tomorrow if we asked. Notwithstanding that point, we are here now because of Brexit. EU lorry drivers leaving because they feel unwelcome (who can blame them), fruit pickers going home because they feel unwelcome (who can blame them), shortages in the hospitality industry, the list goes on.

we had upwards of 2m or more EU nationals working here, many doing the type of work some Brits think are beneath them. Hard working people who work contributing towards a better society for all of us and we turned our backs on them and said we think we're better than them. You'll excuse me if I'm not frasmotic, unuspeptic, even compunctuous with glee. Its a shit show and we made it clear to our closest neighbours what we think of them.

Mate, we are just going in circles here, but nonetheless, hold my hand and walk in a circle with me one more time..

Other than that, you can have the last word - i just think we need to focus on clear economic facts, many of which are emerging in a post-EU and (hopefully) post covid world. https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar is a superb website and lists daily data (todays shows Germany factory orders in a big fall, construction stagnating in the EU, retail sales falling in France and UK construction growing, but more slowly than the last few months btw..)

1 - Nah, sorry, I don’t think ‘food shortages’ is an appropriate term here. Supply chain issues sure, food shortages? That’s hyperbolic language. I shop around so have been to every supermarket bar Waitrose and not failed to buy anything I want. I did note that orange juice was unavailable in McDonalds once a couple of months ago, but food shortages..come on. Even the strongly anti-brexit guardian summarise it today as: Tesco profits double as shelves stay stocked despite supply chain problems | Tesco | The Guardian

2 - Your point on inflation is weak. You are saying inflation is being caused by brexit, but inflation is higher in the Eurozone. Quite clearly what is driving global inflation is not brexit – does it help? Maybe not, but you need to deal in reality here and the facts don’t back you up on it. Now I’m not saying the UK won’t overtake the Eurozone or the EU. It may, and then it will fall behind it again. That’s what happens, but my point stands – Inflation is higher in the eurozone and many EU nations. I’ll repeat the data here: https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe

3 - I’m not answering a question with a question as much as identifying myself as favouring mixed economies. It now seems you do too. I think society and economies are very complex and I favour our government having greater control over those levers. Remember, leaving the EU doesn’t prevent us doing anything. We can have totally open immigration in future if we want. We can apply to rejoin the single market if we want. What it does do is give us options – no bad thing in my opinion

4 - I don’t make life out to be binary at all. In fact, if there is a running theme through nearly everything I say on political or social issues, it’s that life is complex and shades of grey and there are pros and cons to everything.

5 – Your reference to Hitler (whilst simultaneously not equating them!) is of course pretty absurd, although we are all used to it for the last five years. I’ve said, campaign to re-join the single market by all means. Go for it, but by any definition it isn’t happening any time soon, so we need alternative solutions to problems at hand.

6 – It doesn’t solve anything, because all you are doing is ignoring economic, social and democratic facts, stamping your feet and saying the answer is to rejoin the EU, but that’s not happening, so it’s a waste of time.

7 – The UK processed 6m cases for people to work in the UK. Right up to the pandemic immigration from the EU was significantly higher than emigration to it (although it had slowed since the vote) so the idea that ‘everyone left cos of brexit’ just doesn’t hold water. Obviously there will be some cases of that, but the pandemic is clearly the factor here. Would you want to be stuck here in an uncertain locked down country or stuck at home with your family?

8 – We hear lots about “lazy brits” who think work is beneath them etc. I hear you, but the issue is that a lot of sectors have reconfigured to only suit immigration; farming is the classic example, where the hours and wages suit those who can come over and are happy to live on the farm in basic accommodation. The whole sector has become totally reliant upon. It’s less that Brits won’t do it, it’s just few can do and maintain a quality of life. I would agree with you that fixing this is a problem, and where things like temporary visas, or working holidays etc would be very welcome.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Re: 127 is the answer

That’s simplistic, one-eyed bollocks.

Feedy owns you.

Do you really have to descend to such language in such a debate? If you have a valid perspective why not just debate in a mature fashion?

[Feedback]

Re: 127 is the answer

Mate, we are just going in circles here, but nonetheless, hold my hand and walk in a circle with me one more time..

Other than that, you can have the last word - i just think we need to focus on clear economic facts, many of which are emerging in a post-EU and (hopefully) post covid world. https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar is a superb website and lists daily data (todays shows Germany factory orders in a big fall, construction stagnating in the EU, retail sales falling in France and UK construction growing, but more slowly than the last few months btw..)

1 - Nah, sorry, I don’t think ‘food shortages’ is an appropriate term here. Supply chain issues sure, food shortages? That’s hyperbolic language. I shop around so have been to every supermarket bar Waitrose and not failed to buy anything I want. I did note that orange juice was unavailable in McDonalds once a couple of months ago, but food shortages..come on. Even the strongly anti-brexit guardian summarise it today as: Tesco profits double as shelves stay stocked despite supply chain problems | Tesco | The Guardian

2 - Your point on inflation is weak. You are saying inflation is being caused by brexit, but inflation is higher in the Eurozone. Quite clearly what is driving global inflation is not brexit – does it help? Maybe not, but you need to deal in reality here and the facts don’t back you up on it. Now I’m not saying the UK won’t overtake the Eurozone or the EU. It may, and then it will fall behind it again. That’s what happens, but my point stands – Inflation is higher in the eurozone and many EU nations. I’ll repeat the data here: https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe

3 - I’m not answering a question with a question as much as identifying myself as favouring mixed economies. It now seems you do too. I think society and economies are very complex and I favour our government having greater control over those levers. Remember, leaving the EU doesn’t prevent us doing anything. We can have totally open immigration in future if we want. We can apply to rejoin the single market if we want. What it does do is give us options – no bad thing in my opinion

4 - I don’t make life out to be binary at all. In fact, if there is a running theme through nearly everything I say on political or social issues, it’s that life is complex and shades of grey and there are pros and cons to everything.

5 – Your reference to Hitler (whilst simultaneously not equating them!) is of course pretty absurd, although we are all used to it for the last five years. I’ve said, campaign to re-join the single market by all means. Go for it, but by any definition it isn’t happening any time soon, so we need alternative solutions to problems at hand.

6 – It doesn’t solve anything, because all you are doing is ignoring economic, social and democratic facts, stamping your feet and saying the answer is to rejoin the EU, but that’s not happening, so it’s a waste of time.

7 – The UK processed 6m cases for people to work in the UK. Right up to the pandemic immigration from the EU was significantly higher than emigration to it (although it had slowed since the vote) so the idea that ‘everyone left cos of brexit’ just doesn’t hold water. Obviously there will be some cases of that, but the pandemic is clearly the factor here. Would you want to be stuck here in an uncertain locked down country or stuck at home with your family?

8 – We hear lots about “lazy brits” who think work is beneath them etc. I hear you, but the issue is that a lot of sectors have reconfigured to only suit immigration; farming is the classic example, where the hours and wages suit those who can come over and are happy to live on the farm in basic accommodation. The whole sector has become totally reliant upon. It’s less that Brits won’t do it, it’s just few can do and maintain a quality of life. I would agree with you that fixing this is a problem, and where things like temporary visas, or working holidays etc would be very welcome.

Supply chain issues we did not have before
global inflation caused by the supply of energy does not account for the UK's 4% inflation

you are glossing over the very real issues and you're using issues others are facing as a smokescreen to hide from what we are seeing in the UK

let me put it another way, what would it take for you to admit that Brexit has been to the detriment of the UK?

[JamesWales]

Re: 127 is the answer

Supply chain issues we did not have before
global inflation caused by the supply of energy does not account for the UK's 4% inflation

you are glossing over the very real issues and you're using issues others are facing as a smokescreen to hide from what we are seeing in the UK

let me put it another way, what would it take for you to admit that Brexit has been to the detriment of the UK?

I did promise you the last word, but given as you asked a fair question at the end, I'll answer that:

Q/ What would it take for you to admit that Brexit has been to the detriment of the UK?

A/ Economically, I will be looking to see how the UK compares vs advanced western nations in the EU (Sweden, Italy, Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, Belgium etc..broadly the eurozone) in the coming years in terms of things like GDP growth, unemployment, debt, wage growth, inflation. ie, the key economic indicators which provide the best wider picture.

Socially, it's much harder to analyse, but I would like to see reduced inequality, greater confidence, a happier society (almost impossible to assess) a more content, less anxious society, greater health outcomes etc.

So that's how I will assess it in quantitative and qualitative terms.

We don't agree, but I am sure we both want more or less the same things for Wales and the UK so lets home it works out. :thumbup: