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Over the last few days, reading some contributions on here made me think we have been on the brink of relegation all season. Let's look back on the season...
August: Unbeaten in the opening 4 games, lost at home to Bristol City in the last game of the month. Early days, 9th in the table with 8 points.
September: Opened the month with a win from behind at Forest, then suffered 4 defeats on the trot, conceding 9 in those two games. Still early days, dropped to 18th in the the table with 11 points, 3 above the drop zone.
October: Awful month. 4 more successive defeats saw the end of McCarthy, Morison starts with a 3-3 draw after being 3-0 down. 11 goals conceded in 5 games, only 1 goal scored in the previous 8 before the Stoke draw. Season settling down, 21st in the table with 12 points, still 3 above the drop zone. Worrying times, but teams aren't relegated in October.
November: Better month. 3 wins, 2 defeats. No more than 1 goal conceded in any games, but no clean sheets still. 20th in the table with 21 points, 5 points above the drop zone. Points deductions for Derby and Reading helping as well. fivethirtyeight.com gives us a 10% chance of relegation.
December: Three tough league games, 1 point from them. Only 3 points from the bottom 3. Again, teams aren't relegated in December and we've kept our heads out of the relegation zone.
January: Another difficult month, 2 defeats but a decent draw at West Brom and victory over an in form Forest side very welcome. 6 points above the bottom 3 with big games against 2 sides below us to come. fivethirtyeight.com has us at 14% for relegation. 19 games to go.
February: Seven league games this month. 3 wins, including massive wins against Barnsley and Peterborough, 3 defeats, but there was also a spirited performance at Liverpool in the cup. 13 points off the bottom 3. 12 games to go. Barring unlikely runs of form from those below us, we're safe.
March: 3 wins and a draw all but secure our divisional status for next season. 18 points clear of the relegation zone.
April: 1 win (so far) at Reading confirms safety with 6 games to go. Team goes on holiday for the rest of the season.
It might be the naturally pessimistic nature of some City fans that brought a genuine fear of relegation, the belief or opinion that we'll continue to be shit while teams below us will get better results. I dread to think what might have happened had McCarthy not been shown the door. Since then, we have always been clear of the drop zone while teams below us have rarely looked capable of closing that gap. Some might say it would have been a different story had Derby and Reading not had points deductions, but that's utterly irrelevant. Suppose they hadn't happened, we'd be 4 points clear with a game in hand and teams between us and the bottom 3. Teams in such a position very rarely go down, but I guess the pessimistic City fan would still fear the worst.
In short, I'm not dismissing the fact that we have had a battle to stay in the division, but saying we've been close to relegation is about as accurate as saying we've always looked safe. Since February we have, more or less, been safe and teams are more likely to know their destiny at the end of February than at the end of October.
While this will, I'm sure be dismissed by many, I've mentioned the website fivethirtyeight.com, which, week by week has given teams a percentage chance of relegation, playoffs, promotion etc. No idea how they work these things out. We've never been in their top 3 percentage chance of relegation and the current bottom 3 have been their 3 favourites for relegation since mid November.
August: Unbeaten in the opening 4 games, lost at home to Bristol City in the last game of the month. Early days, 9th in the table with 8 points.
September: Opened the month with a win from behind at Forest, then suffered 4 defeats on the trot, conceding 9 in those two games. Still early days, dropped to 18th in the the table with 11 points, 3 above the drop zone.
October: Awful month. 4 more successive defeats saw the end of McCarthy, Morison starts with a 3-3 draw after being 3-0 down. 11 goals conceded in 5 games, only 1 goal scored in the previous 8 before the Stoke draw. Season settling down, 21st in the table with 12 points, still 3 above the drop zone. Worrying times, but teams aren't relegated in October.
November: Better month. 3 wins, 2 defeats. No more than 1 goal conceded in any games, but no clean sheets still. 20th in the table with 21 points, 5 points above the drop zone. Points deductions for Derby and Reading helping as well. fivethirtyeight.com gives us a 10% chance of relegation.
December: Three tough league games, 1 point from them. Only 3 points from the bottom 3. Again, teams aren't relegated in December and we've kept our heads out of the relegation zone.
January: Another difficult month, 2 defeats but a decent draw at West Brom and victory over an in form Forest side very welcome. 6 points above the bottom 3 with big games against 2 sides below us to come. fivethirtyeight.com has us at 14% for relegation. 19 games to go.
February: Seven league games this month. 3 wins, including massive wins against Barnsley and Peterborough, 3 defeats, but there was also a spirited performance at Liverpool in the cup. 13 points off the bottom 3. 12 games to go. Barring unlikely runs of form from those below us, we're safe.
March: 3 wins and a draw all but secure our divisional status for next season. 18 points clear of the relegation zone.
April: 1 win (so far) at Reading confirms safety with 6 games to go. Team goes on holiday for the rest of the season.
It might be the naturally pessimistic nature of some City fans that brought a genuine fear of relegation, the belief or opinion that we'll continue to be shit while teams below us will get better results. I dread to think what might have happened had McCarthy not been shown the door. Since then, we have always been clear of the drop zone while teams below us have rarely looked capable of closing that gap. Some might say it would have been a different story had Derby and Reading not had points deductions, but that's utterly irrelevant. Suppose they hadn't happened, we'd be 4 points clear with a game in hand and teams between us and the bottom 3. Teams in such a position very rarely go down, but I guess the pessimistic City fan would still fear the worst.
In short, I'm not dismissing the fact that we have had a battle to stay in the division, but saying we've been close to relegation is about as accurate as saying we've always looked safe. Since February we have, more or less, been safe and teams are more likely to know their destiny at the end of February than at the end of October.
While this will, I'm sure be dismissed by many, I've mentioned the website fivethirtyeight.com, which, week by week has given teams a percentage chance of relegation, playoffs, promotion etc. No idea how they work these things out. We've never been in their top 3 percentage chance of relegation and the current bottom 3 have been their 3 favourites for relegation since mid November.
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