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We're currently rated 48% chance of relegation using whatever algorithms fivethirtyeight uses and finishing 21st. Rjk is a bit of a fan of the site and it's interesting to see what they suggest.
Their predictions are in their 6th season now and there's the facility to search for previous seasons, up to 2017/18.
In the 5 previous seasons they've been doing this, at this point in the season, they've successfully predicted 11 of the 15 sides relegated to League 1. In both 2017/18 and 2021/22 they predicted the correct bottom 3 (if not in the right order).
In 2018/19 Reading had a 51% chance of relegation but stayed up, where Rotherham had a slighly less chance (48%) and went down.
In 2020/21 Rotherham were given just a 13% chance of relegation at this point in the season and went down in place of Birmingham, who were given a 45% chance of relegation and ranked at 22nd.
In 2019/20 their algorithm got things spectacularly wrong, suggesting Luton and Barnsley were as good as down. Both survived. Wigan went down along with Charlton (given a 22% chance of relegation) and Hull (3% chance).
No prediction model will ever be 100% successful. Fivethirtyeight's (in the Championship) seems to be pretty accurate, but like all things like this, anything can happen in sport to make the best predictions look daft.
Their predictions are in their 6th season now and there's the facility to search for previous seasons, up to 2017/18.
In the 5 previous seasons they've been doing this, at this point in the season, they've successfully predicted 11 of the 15 sides relegated to League 1. In both 2017/18 and 2021/22 they predicted the correct bottom 3 (if not in the right order).
In 2018/19 Reading had a 51% chance of relegation but stayed up, where Rotherham had a slighly less chance (48%) and went down.
In 2020/21 Rotherham were given just a 13% chance of relegation at this point in the season and went down in place of Birmingham, who were given a 45% chance of relegation and ranked at 22nd.
In 2019/20 their algorithm got things spectacularly wrong, suggesting Luton and Barnsley were as good as down. Both survived. Wigan went down along with Charlton (given a 22% chance of relegation) and Hull (3% chance).
No prediction model will ever be 100% successful. Fivethirtyeight's (in the Championship) seems to be pretty accurate, but like all things like this, anything can happen in sport to make the best predictions look daft.
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