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Re: Will 48 points be enough ?
You'd be right to assume that we might need a higher than average number of points to stay up.
I've had a look at the number of points between 6th and 22nd since the 2nd tier went to 24 teams in the early 90s. As a rule of thumb, the narrower the points gap between 6th and 22nd, the higher the number of points gained by the side in 22nd and the lower the number of points gained by the side in 6th.
The smallest gap between 6th and 22nd was in 2012/13 when Peterborough, on 54 points, were only 14 points behind Leicester City. After 33 games the gap between 6th and 22nd was larger than at the end of the season, so it shouldn't be taken for granted that the gap will grow.
In 11 seasons where the gap has been 25 points between 6th and 22nd or less, the team in 22nd has had 50 points or more on 8 out of the 11 seasons it has happened and always had more than 50 points when the gap was 20 points or less. On the 18 occasions the gap has been 27 points or less, 48 points would have ensured survival on only 3 occasions, yet when the gap has been more than 27 points (on 16 occasions), 48 points has guaranteed survival on all bar one occasion.
What does that all mean? Bugger all, really, as we have no idea how many points the side in 22nd will have by the end of the season or how far adrift the side in 22nd will be. If the side that finishes in 22nd has a good run until the end of the season, we'll need to match it.
Originally posted by logic
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I've had a look at the number of points between 6th and 22nd since the 2nd tier went to 24 teams in the early 90s. As a rule of thumb, the narrower the points gap between 6th and 22nd, the higher the number of points gained by the side in 22nd and the lower the number of points gained by the side in 6th.
The smallest gap between 6th and 22nd was in 2012/13 when Peterborough, on 54 points, were only 14 points behind Leicester City. After 33 games the gap between 6th and 22nd was larger than at the end of the season, so it shouldn't be taken for granted that the gap will grow.
In 11 seasons where the gap has been 25 points between 6th and 22nd or less, the team in 22nd has had 50 points or more on 8 out of the 11 seasons it has happened and always had more than 50 points when the gap was 20 points or less. On the 18 occasions the gap has been 27 points or less, 48 points would have ensured survival on only 3 occasions, yet when the gap has been more than 27 points (on 16 occasions), 48 points has guaranteed survival on all bar one occasion.
What does that all mean? Bugger all, really, as we have no idea how many points the side in 22nd will have by the end of the season or how far adrift the side in 22nd will be. If the side that finishes in 22nd has a good run until the end of the season, we'll need to match it.
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