Re: Senedd election prediction

Think Tories will do better than 14

Re: Senedd election prediction

I think Labour will win most seats but fail to get a majority

Whats worrying is that the conservatives are going to win more seats than plaid yet the free Wales movement claim that support for an independent Wales is growing ?

Thats clearly nonsense as they look set to record the same number of seats they did in 2016 !

Hardly a bandwagon 🙄

They will have enough seats to be a junior partner in a coalition with labour so that keeps Andrew rt Davies and the conservatives out so happy days

But its staggering the conservative vote is so high given the crap they have poured on Wales over the years . Their main attack on Labour seems to be they have had 22 years but compared to the time the tories have had running things in Westminster that's nothing . You expect areas like Monmouth and parts of mid Wales to be tory but people must have short memories if they are prepared to vote conservative given the wider picture .

I hope drakeford steps down as soon as possible because although I think his heart is in the right place he's old school .

As nationally Labour need a decent leader to shake things up and stick the boot into the blue meanies

Re: Senedd election prediction

tories will win more seats than plaid

Which is worrying for plaid and worrying for everyone

Labour need to get rid of Vaughan Gethin and Drakeford pronto

Re: Senedd election prediction

All parties have move further left including the Tories

At the moment they’re not as bad a self serving party they were in the 80s and 90s

Re: the Labour leader. There’s nothing wrong with Drakeford it’s the party itself that’s the issue. They are split into factions with no direction

Re: Senedd election prediction

Labour - 24
Plaid - 16
Tory - 16
Lib Dem - 1
Abolish - 2
Greens - 2

Re: Senedd election prediction

You're kidding right? Even if Plaid falter at this election the state of Welsh independence is completely different to 2016. Up to the high 20s/low 30s in the polls, not dismissed as a fringe issue, movements gaining members. All this without really any kind of campaign for independence

The wider picture is that Labour have taken Wales for granted, its their own fault if they somehow manage to throw away their total dominance of South Wales

Re: Senedd election prediction

The tories , and the country in general , are further to the right , patel is like Maggie thatcher and Boris is a right wing libertarian

Re: Senedd election prediction

no I am deadly serious

Plaid are the independence party and since 2016 it looks likely that they haven't gained any support at all , despite having a good leader

And they are going to gain less seats than the tory party

If you think that shows a growing movement for Welsh independence then I think you are dreaming

Movements gaining members ? Polls ?

Its all about what people vote for and more people will vote tory than the party of Wales

All they can ever hope for is coalition government and if Labour get a decent leader for next time they can forget about that too

I would prefer Labour to go into coalition with the liberals but they are dead in the water

Re: Senedd election prediction

The most recent analysis I've seen talks about economic left/right and culturally left/right. Parties may have shifted on one measure and shifted in opposite direction on the other.

Re: Senedd election prediction

If you choose to ignore everything else that's happened over the past few years and only focus on an election that's being held under exceptional circumstances then I don't know what to say

Also, what are you basing Plaid not getting any support on? The election's not happened yet and its pretty inconsistent to use polls to say that whilst saying its deluded to use polls as a yardstick for growth in pro-independence feeling

Re: Senedd election prediction

I think Lib Dem or Plaid will pick up a lot of people's 2nd vote on the Regional candidate. Labour seats will be down slightly, Plaid down, Tories up a lot. Andrew 'RT' Davies will claim victory though but Labour and Plaid combined will keep them out. All of my household (4) did a postal vote a week or so ago. It'll be interesting.

Re: Senedd election prediction

Pollsters sometimes get it wrong but everything points to Labour being the dominant party , propped up in a coalition by the Welsh nationalist Party who are likely to come third behind the tories

If that tells you there is a growing movement for Welsh independence then that doesn't transmit to Welsh peoples voting habits , more people in Wales would rather vote tory than for plaid cymru ?

What does that tell you about this growing movement for Welsh independence ?

I know what it tells me

Re: Senedd election prediction

Labour up a bit , plaid same as before , tories up a lot , which is worrying

Re: Senedd election prediction

People who vote for other parties support Welsh independence. Independence has not been an issue in this election, lockdowns and dislike of Drakeford have been.

To suggest Plaid's vote is representative of independence support is utter bollocks.