WHO warns of 'second peak' in areas where COVID-19 declining

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Originally Posted by blue matt

If this 2nd wave does appear, we should be prepared with more ICU beds, more PPE and hopefully better drugs to treat it at the start ( with trace and testing, we should be able to identify people with it earlier )

watching people around here, life is starting to get back to normally quickly, wickes had a line around the carpark the 3 times i drove past it today, every customer i did today had been to the garden centre in the last week

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Are you getting furlough payments on top of customer payments?

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

It's a virus like flu but the symptoms aren't like flu.

We can rely on the info coming out of Korea and Germany who have both seen increased R numbers since relaxing lockdowns. This is expected even for us, it just needs to be carefully managed so it doesn't get too high.

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What was the R rate in Germany when they eased lockdown?

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

No historical precedent of a second wave of a virus? There definitely is.

Unless someone can see into the future what else are you basing an hypothosis on other than assumptions and predictions? Scientific assumptions and predictions are usually pretty acurate too, seems a strange reason to doubt something. Do you have a scientific background? You seem very sure about this.

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It's usually based on the fact that scientists made some prediction sometime in the past that was wrong. They do the same with modelling "Hah, they said 250,000 people died, but they didn't" - completely misunderstanding what modelling actually is. The natural conclusion (and the fastest to come to, probably during an ad break) is that the scientists and modellers are part of some huge conspiracy to frighten the population. Why Governments around the world want to frighten their people is never divulged, of course.

the 'r' rate in Germany when they started to lift lockdown was apparently just under 1 and it went above 1 in the first week. But the 'r' rate is generally lagging 2 or 3 weeks behind.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Like most, I've read scores of experts' [not conspiracists] views on CV19. I may be wrong but no-one has based the 2nd wave scenario on any historical precedent. Like everyone since this thing started, they're making assumptions, predictions, and speculations.

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I doubt that many, if any, scientists will be basing their "assumptions, predictions and speculations" on historical precedent.

This is not how modelling works.

They will base their models on the number of people carrying the infection at the time that lockdown measures ease, for example. The data that was present in 1918 for the Spanish flu, for example, is less relevant in a more global time - but it's known R rate can be used as a data point to calculate the effects on a population of a virus that is more infectious. The rate of infection is higher for covid-19 than flu (at the base level of no preventative measures being undertaken).

There will be a better set of data available to modellers now, based on the effect on infections of the various actions that have been undertaken. This is partly why we will emerge from lockdown gradually (although the major reason is safety). Example, what happens to the rate of infection when schools re-open. Two weeks later, you open up the shops - what effect did this have on the rate of infection. And on it goes.

Also, just because there was a second wave in Country X, it does not follow that Country Y will get a second wave. And, just because Pandemic 1918 had a more serious second wave, it does not imply that Pandemic 2020 will too.

The "assumption" (there are not many of those), "predictions" (it's actually called modelling) and speculations (again, it is called modelling) are based on known data. They are not a prediction of what will happen, but they will provide guidance on what steps are most effective in keeping rates of infection low, and what the effects of easing restrictions will be based on the number of people infected.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

the 'r' rate in Germany when they started to lift lockdown was apparently just under 1 and it went above 1 in the first week. But the 'r' rate is generally lagging 2 or 3 weeks behind.

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Where did you read this?

I've found my own sources now, thanks.

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

Where did you read this?

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look it up.
It was reported on the news when everyone was saying they had unlocked too early.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

look it up.
It was reported on the news when everyone was saying they had unlocked too early.

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I have looked it up.

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Originally Posted by goats

102 years ago though, Christ they didn’t even have paracetamol back then. We keep hearing it’s nothing like flu anyway, pandemic flu would apparently be far worse.
It’s a shame we can’t rely on any info out of China as they are a few months ahead of Europe, they would happily lose 5 million people and deny it ever happened, and the WHO sound like a shambles for praising the way they handled the outbreak initially.

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Yes of course, you're right. It was in the long distant past. We won't get any global pandemics again, will we?!

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

People always think I am because I reply, but as I have said so often, this is a fecking football website, nothing anyone says will have any effect on this or my life. I really don't give a toss about what people think about this at all. I find a lot of the righteous indignation amusing. (I'll probably get pulled for that remark now lol)

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Seems to me your amusement at (righteous) indignation is always aimed in one direction. Andrew Bridgen the Tory MP was full of righteous indignation on yesterday's Newsnight as he railed against the media for turning the public against Dominic Cummings' perfectly reasonable behaviour - somehow, I don't see you being amused at or critical of that. I've decided you're just being deliberately argumentative most of the time, so you won't be on the receiving end of any indignation, righteous or otherwise, from me after this because I won't be bothering to reply to anything else you say about the virus.

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Originally Posted by lardy

Yes of course, you're right. It was in the long distant past. We won't get any global pandemics again, will we?!

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We are better placed to cope though aren’t we, how did one doctor in say China contact one in the uk in 1918? Pigeon post? I rest my case

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Originally Posted by goats

We are better placed to cope though aren’t we, how did one doctor in say China contact one in the uk in 1918? Pigeon post? I rest my case

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What case? :hehe:

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Originally Posted by goats

We are better placed to cope though aren’t we, how did one doctor in say China contact one in the uk in 1918? Pigeon post? I rest my case

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Yes we are better placed to cope compared to 1918.

Are we better placed to cope in November 2020 than March 2020? Well, we'll probably see.

It's happened this year already, so saying we are much more advanced than 1918 maybe a strong case in your eyes but it's not for me. I just don't know what has supposed to have changed to mean there will be no second wave, as a couple of posters on this thread seem to convinced will be the case.


But then, one of them thinks that covid doesn't kill and the other thinks children are immune :hehe:

By the way, just in case anyone read xsnaggle's assertion that "the rate was just below 1 when they lifted their lockdown" - the rate was actually 0.65.

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Last Wednesday, as Merkel and state premiers announced the easing of social distancing coupled with wearing masks, the rate was 0.65. When making the announcement, she said that if any communities saw a rise of 50 or more cases per 100,000 people, towns or cities would have to reimpose lockdowns. The possibility of a second national lockdown is off the table as of now, she said.

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

What case? :hehe:

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My shiny leather case I take to work everyday of course

Bit more info on Korea this morning

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South Korea has reported 40 new cases for its biggest daily jump in nearly 50 days. All but four of the new cases came from the densely populated Seoul metropolitan area, where officials have been scrambling to stem transmissions linked to nightclubs, karaoke rooms and an e-commerce warehouse.

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Shows why a second peak has to be carefully managed. And why local lockdowns might be likely.

Look forward to the day when 40 new cases in the UK is described as a "spike".

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

Look forward to the day when 40 new cases in the UK is described as a "spike".

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Issue is that things can escalate from these cases, as has happened during the initial cases. A strict and proactive response could help but issue is individual rights and what if people are asymptotic. I guess contact tracing would help resolve it but the government has to execute it in a way that is efficient and doesn’t cause huge privacy concerns

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Originally Posted by adz-a32

Issue is that things can escalate from these cases, as has happened during the initial cases. A strict and proactive response could help but issue is individual rights and what if people are asymptotic. I guess contact tracing would help resolve it but the government has to execute it in a way that is efficient and doesn’t cause huge privacy concerns

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It feels like it's a bit late for contact tracing now.

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Originally Posted by lardy

It feels like it's a bit late for contact tracing now.

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Because many people had it?

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Originally Posted by lardy

It feels like it's a bit late for contact tracing now.

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It isn't being brought in at an ideal time is it?

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

It isn't being brought in at an ideal time is it?

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You’d have thought contact track and tracing would’ve been better under more restrictive lockdown restrictions and when the majority were playing ball?

Imagine trying to contact, track and trace everyone who visited a beach on Monday if one person may have had Covid19?

It’s another **** up in a long list.

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

It isn't being brought in at an ideal time is it?

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It seems most effective if done early. If it gets going, it seems like everyone is going to be so overwhelmed with contacts that it won't be much use.

As Jordi says, much more useful under lockdown.

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Originally Posted by lardy

It seems most effective if done early. If it gets going, it seems like everyone is going to be so overwhelmed with contacts that it won't be much use.

As Jordi says, much more useful under lockdown.

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To be a contradictory twat, it does need to be done although the implementation and management of the whole thing if restrictions are lifted will probably prove problematic?

I’m sure Boris isn’t publicising the fact contact, track and trace will be up and running and pubs could be open in July to mask or detract from anything else going on in the news?

I’ll add for fairness, Drakeford needs together finger out of his arse in regards to this.

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Originally Posted by Jordi Culé

To be a contradictory twat, it does need to be done although the implementation and management of the whole thing if restrictions are lifted will probably prove problematic?

I’m sure Boris isn’t publicising the fact contact, track and trace will be up and running and pubs could be open in July to mask or detract from anything else going on in the news?

I’ll add for fairness, Drakeford needs together finger out of his arse in regards to this.

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Testing and tracing seem to be the only solution until we get effective drugs and/or a vaccine, so from that point of view it is better late than never.

But it's nearly June, it's been talked about for ages and neither are anywhere near where they should be. So better late than never, but also too little too late.

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Originally Posted by lardy

Testing and tracing seem to be the only solution until we get effective drugs and/or a vaccine, so from that point of view it is better late than never.

But it's nearly June, it's been talked about for ages and neither are anywhere near where they should be. So better late than never, but also too little too late.

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It was reported back in April how effective contact, track and tracing was. It must’ve bypassed our experts or the suggestion was binned in favour of herd immunity which is much cheaper money wise?

The fact none of the respective governments got a grasp on this shows how poor collectively they all are.

I’ll blame Drakeford and Sturgeon for being half arsed and more intent with trying to illustrate Wales and Scotland respectively have their own governments.

I’ll blame The bumbling cuntwaffle for trying to act as Lord and master, being a self serving wanker and generally being a massive ****.

If he’d died of Covid19, it would’ve saved many lives. A sacrifice worth giving and I would’ve contributed to a statue for the floppy haired, ****athon.

Track and trace seems to have a wee problem .

I was reading the government web site yesterday thinking I should down load the App . About 3/4 of the way down the instructions it said the track and trace which I believe should be starting today , the App wasn't ready . It was called the NHS App , is that a sly way of distancing yourself from the App and blaming the NHS ?
Any way it isn't going to work particularly well without the App.

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Originally Posted by Jordi Culé

It was reported back in April how effective contact, track and tracing was. It must’ve bypassed our experts or the suggestion was binned in favour of herd immunity which is much cheaper money wise?

The fact none of the respective governments got a grasp on this shows how poor collectively they all are.

I’ll blame Drakeford and Sturgeon for being half arsed and more intent with trying to illustrate Wales and Scotland respectively have their own governments.

I’ll blame The bumbling cuntwaffle for trying to act as Lord and master, being a self serving wanker and generally being a massive ****.

If he’d died of Covid19, it would’ve saved many lives. A sacrifice worth giving and I would’ve contributed to a statue for the floppy haired, ****athon.

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Wishing someone dead because you don't like their politics. You must have a lot of hate and anger bottled up in there..

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

[/B]

Wishing someone dead because you don't like their politics. You must have a lot of hate and anger bottled up in there..

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He's not saying that at all though is he?

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

[/B]

Wishing someone dead because you don't like their politics. You must have a lot of hate and anger bottled up in there..

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I read my comment again and I don’t see where I wished death on him?

My observation still stands though if he had died we wouldn’t be in the shit show we still are.

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Originally Posted by Jordi Culé

You’d have thought contact track and tracing would’ve been better under more restrictive lockdown restrictions and when the majority were playing ball?

Imagine trying to contact, track and trace everyone who visited a beach on Monday if one person may have had Covid19?

It’s another **** up in a long list.

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I understand that being within 1 metre of someone for more than 10 minutes is what is called a ' contact'. So the list may be manageable

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Originally Posted by lisvaneblue

I understand that being within 1 metre of someone for more than 10 minutes is what is called a ' contact'. So the list may be manageable

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How do they know if someone has been within 1 metre of someone for more than 10 minutes though?

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Originally Posted by Jimmy the Jock

Track and trace seems to have a wee problem .

I was reading the government web site yesterday thinking I should down load the App . About 3/4 of the way down the instructions it said the track and trace which I believe should be starting today , the App wasn't ready . It was called the NHS App , is that a sly way of distancing yourself from the App and blaming the NHS ?
Any way it isn't going to work particularly well without the App.

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It's almost as if they're rushing out the start of it before it's effective to try and get something else as the main story on the news :sherlock:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...-100000-deaths

South Korea increase restrictions after spike in cases. Exactly the same will happen here if we aren't careful.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

How do they know if someone has been within 1 metre of someone for more than 10 minutes though?

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Through the bluetooth contact between phones/devices I think.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...-100000-deaths

South Korea increase restrictions after spike in cases. Exactly the same will happen here if we aren't careful.

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I'm not really confident that this current wave has subsided to a level that warrants an easing of lockdowns. However, for whatever reason, this has become a decision based on political convenience more than the science.

Saying that, though, there is an argument that "2m at all times" was over the top but possibly the clearest way to convey the message of social distancing. I would put my chances of catching coronavirus from a 10 second period of being 1 metre away from someone as less than being 2m away from someone for 2 minutes, with the wind blowing in my direction from them.

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Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO

Through the bluetooth contact between phones/devices I think.

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But there's no app.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

But there's no app.

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Then we are relying on memories :hehe:

"Yes, I was stood behind an elderly lady at Tesco on Tuesday. No hang on, Wednesday. Tuesday I was in Aldi. She had a blue dress on and wore black sandals. She was buying red peppers, I was checking out the carrots. No, sorry, she was getting parsnips. Anyway, the price on these things is starting to creep up. No, hang on, she had a red dress. Hang on, yes it was Tuesday and it was in Aldi"

Im wondering if to enter a pub restaurant cafe they will bring something in to say you need to have the app or be in company of someone with the app to enter.

Wasnt it S Korea that 100 cases identified to a nightclub.