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From my experience it’s the old ****ers who will transmit a 2nd wave. Had to tell one up m&s earlier.
Look handsome you seem to have a habit on jumping on other people’s points without much thought what has been said prior to your Size 10 feet landing with a thump. My point was to someone asking where the second wave is and I was insinuating that it could well happen in the next few weeks.
I was being sarcastic. Yes it is the lowest form of wit but I thought it would suit you fine
Please accept my apologies.
Your question appeared to be in direct response to me saying if they were testing more and the number of infections wasn't rising that was a good thing. so when you asked the question I responded to it.. I know what had been said previously.
It seems fairly common sense to assume that as lockdown is eased that cases will go up but the hope is that the tracing and control will keep it in check.
By the way, size 9 and don't patronise me it is a waste of time and it does you no credit. Have a nice evening.
People always think I am because I reply, but as I have said so often, this is a fecking football website, nothing anyone says will have any effect on this or my life. I really don't give a toss about what people think about this at all. I find a lot of the righteous indignation amusing. (I'll probably get pulled for that remark now lol)
If this 2nd wave does appear, we should be prepared with more ICU beds, more PPE and hopefully better drugs to treat it at the start ( with trace and testing, we should be able to identify people with it earlier )
watching people around here, life is starting to get back to normally quickly, wickes had a line around the carpark the 3 times i drove past it today, every customer i did today had been to the garden centre in the last week
It's usually based on the fact that scientists made some prediction sometime in the past that was wrong. They do the same with modelling "Hah, they said 250,000 people died, but they didn't" - completely misunderstanding what modelling actually is. The natural conclusion (and the fastest to come to, probably during an ad break) is that the scientists and modellers are part of some huge conspiracy to frighten the population. Why Governments around the world want to frighten their people is never divulged, of course.
the 'r' rate in Germany when they started to lift lockdown was apparently just under 1 and it went above 1 in the first week. But the 'r' rate is generally lagging 2 or 3 weeks behind.
I doubt that many, if any, scientists will be basing their "assumptions, predictions and speculations" on historical precedent.
This is not how modelling works.
They will base their models on the number of people carrying the infection at the time that lockdown measures ease, for example. The data that was present in 1918 for the Spanish flu, for example, is less relevant in a more global time - but it's known R rate can be used as a data point to calculate the effects on a population of a virus that is more infectious. The rate of infection is higher for covid-19 than flu (at the base level of no preventative measures being undertaken).
There will be a better set of data available to modellers now, based on the effect on infections of the various actions that have been undertaken. This is partly why we will emerge from lockdown gradually (although the major reason is safety). Example, what happens to the rate of infection when schools re-open. Two weeks later, you open up the shops - what effect did this have on the rate of infection. And on it goes.
Also, just because there was a second wave in Country X, it does not follow that Country Y will get a second wave. And, just because Pandemic 1918 had a more serious second wave, it does not imply that Pandemic 2020 will too.
The "assumption" (there are not many of those), "predictions" (it's actually called modelling) and speculations (again, it is called modelling) are based on known data. They are not a prediction of what will happen, but they will provide guidance on what steps are most effective in keeping rates of infection low, and what the effects of easing restrictions will be based on the number of people infected.
Seems to me your amusement at (righteous) indignation is always aimed in one direction. Andrew Bridgen the Tory MP was full of righteous indignation on yesterday's Newsnight as he railed against the media for turning the public against Dominic Cummings' perfectly reasonable behaviour - somehow, I don't see you being amused at or critical of that. I've decided you're just being deliberately argumentative most of the time, so you won't be on the receiving end of any indignation, righteous or otherwise, from me after this because I won't be bothering to reply to anything else you say about the virus.