The state of Cardiff's housing market as prices grow twice as fast as wages

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Originally Posted by jon1959

Maybe the world has changed since I stopped working in public housing 7 years ago - but at that time developers were definitely land banking, and (along with their supporters in the Tory Party) blaming planning regs. No doubt planning systems and regs can be improved, but my experience was they were put up as an excuse for developers wanting greenfield sites not brownfield, and resisting requirements to include section 106 affordable housing in some developments. It was mostly a smokescreen to maximise profits.

Councils do not build council housing because they are unable to fund them (despite the self-financing Housing Revenue Acount reforms of a decade ago) and because they will still be subject to Right To Buy - meaning the public (councils and remaining tenants) will continue to subsidise a section of new owner occupiers. Mass social house building is needed now.

The other recent factor affecting housing costs and supply - and a reason for owner occupation in the UK dropping from over 70% in 2003 to under 65% now - is the 'buy to rent' phenomena. Vast numbers of homes - new build and ex RTB council in particular - have been hoovered up by the new breed of landlord who then push up rents and collect from the affluent who can afford them, or those on housing benefits (so the state, or taxpayers, have to afford them) for those that can't. People in the middle get squeezed.

This is what happens when housing is seen as an investment asset, for personal or company benefit, not as a home. That mindset is much more prevalent in the UK than most other parts of Europe as Sludge said - even Romania with its' 97% owner occupation rate!

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Developers don't land bank. It would tie up too much cash to do so. Developers want to develop but also have to develop with the intention of turning a profit.

There are 14,500 council houses left in Cardiff. CCC are the 2nd most active council in the uk at buying back ex council houses. Selling them off was a disaster, massively boosted the private rental marketin which some landlords did exactly what they wanted.

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Originally Posted by Feedback

Developers don't land bank. It would tie up too much cash to do so. Developers want to develop but also have to develop with the intention of turning a profit.

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And if they could turn a bigger profit by sitting on the sites, that is what they did.

If you are so insistent that land banking never happened tell me what Henry Boot, Keepmoat and Kier were doing with their development sites in South Yorkshire in the period I described. I was working with them, talking to them, talking to the planning and development officers in the council, reading the reports and even visited a few sites.

No doubt you know better - so just give me the headlines on the real story.

Interesting scheme:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ngham-58933011

A way into affordable rented homes with an incentive to stay for a long time!

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Originally Posted by WJ99mobile

Could have been good if the rules were stuck to

Ie build new for every sold

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Thatcher refused to let councils replace houses sold until they had used the money raised to pay off debts

She basically robbed them then kicked them in the bollocks as she went

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Originally Posted by Doucas

So you're saying everyone who is employed can get a mortgage easily? Is this a joke?

Where are you getting this information from that people want a forever home right away? You're talking nonsense.

Just take a read of this - https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk...060042411.html

Also did you take a look at the average wage vs house price graph I posted earlier? https://images.app.goo.gl/P1NT2ZDTC8VgKis98

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I bought my 1st house in The Hawthorns [Pentwyn], in 1976/7. for £14,000.According to Zoopla It sold for £140,000 a couple of yrs ago. Interest rates were 14%. Mortgage rates 16% at least at times. I was earning less than £5k. I'd saved for 4yrs with the Woolwich B.S. to get the deposit.
No help from f*cking anyone. Today a mortgage on that house would cost not far off what I was paying with a less than £5k salary. All furniture borrowed or begged.
It's never been easy buying a house, the differences between know and then are exaggerated..

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

I bought my 1st house in The Hawthorns [Pentwyn], in 1976/7. for £14,000.According to Zoopla It sold for £140,000 a couple of yrs ago. Interest rates were 14%. Mortgage rates 16% at least at times. I was earning less than £5k. I'd saved for 4yrs with the Woolwich B.S. to get the deposit.
No help from f*cking anyone. Today a mortgage on that house would cost not far off what I was paying with a less than £5k salary. All furniture borrowed or begged.
It's never been easy buying a house, the differences between know and then are exaggerated..

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Well you had some f**king help from the f**king bank.

Out of interest, is it easier to save money when interest rates are 14%?

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Originally Posted by lardy

Well you had some f**king help from the f**king bank.

Out of interest, is it easier to save money when interest rates are 14%?

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I'm a mortgage broker of 35 years experience and what surprises me is how much personal credit youngsters have. So many low paid people have huge car finance/loans/hp and hefty credit card bills. If they are able to buy (4.75 times income common at 90% or less) then all the furniture needs to be Instagram perfect and all new. Many of those coming back after 2 years have to stay with their current lender on a new product as their affordability (credit taken after purchase) won't allow them to go elsewhere. Managing with old furniture, making do and saving seems a think of the past......

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-safety-crisis

Plans for thousands of affordable homes face being scrapped as billions of pounds are diverted to fixing the building safety crisis, builders have said.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

I bought my 1st house in The Hawthorns [Pentwyn], in 1976/7. for £14,000.According to Zoopla It sold for £140,000 a couple of yrs ago. Interest rates were 14%. Mortgage rates 16% at least at times. I was earning less than £5k. I'd saved for 4yrs with the Woolwich B.S. to get the deposit.
No help from f*cking anyone. Today a mortgage on that house would cost not far off what I was paying with a less than £5k salary. All furniture borrowed or begged.
It's never been easy buying a house, the differences between know and then are exaggerated..

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You're repeatedly missing the point like many in your generation.

You had a mortgage, many people my age who are working full time and always have done and have no hope of ever getting a mortgage. Home ownership for your generation at age 30 was 50%, for millenials its 30% and that figure is going to become rapidly smaller for gen z (https://abcfinance.co.uk/blog/generation-rent-study/)

Your house was less than 3x your wage, that is basically unheard of these days.

'A couple of years ago' so that price is already massively out of date, it's increased by at least 25% now.

Is it just me or are the boomers completely out of touch with modern life?

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Originally Posted by jon1959

And if they could turn a bigger profit by sitting on the sites, that is what they did.

If you are so insistent that land banking never happened tell me what Henry Boot, Keepmoat and Kier were doing with their development sites in South Yorkshire in the period I described. I was working with them, talking to them, talking to the planning and development officers in the council, reading the reports and even visited a few sites.

No doubt you know better - so just give me the headlines on the real story.

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It’s not still a thing though.

It will be again one day sitting on granted planning permissions if we have another massive collapse, but what’s the point developing when they can’t sell them anyway because banks won’t be granting mortgages.

I reiterate, the mass housebuilders in the UK are not land banking currently .

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Originally Posted by jon1959

Interesting scheme:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ngham-58933011

A way into affordable rented homes with an incentive to stay for a long time!

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Been done before. Liverpool last place I remember

Does work

I tell you what’s the best thing to do for everyone. Stop building social housing in high value areas and make travel free.

Works for all

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Originally Posted by Feedback

So if it wasn't for the planning process you could have shaved two months off the overall time of the alterations

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Not Really, I had the work started before i got the decision, didn't want to lose the builders slot having been put back for 10 months during the pandemic, was confident of what the decision outcome would be.

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Originally Posted by Doucas

You're repeatedly missing the point like many in your generation.

You had a mortgage, many people my age who are working full time and always have done and have no hope of ever getting a mortgage. Home ownership for your generation at age 30 was 50%, for millenials its 30% and that figure is going to become rapidly smaller for gen z (https://abcfinance.co.uk/blog/generation-rent-study/)

Your house was less than 3x your wage, that is basically unheard of these days.

'A couple of years ago' so that price is already massively out of date, it's increased by at least 25% now.

Is it just me or are the boomers completely out of touch with modern life?

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People don't start small any more and build up, they want to move in to their dream home straight away. A mortgage cost 3x what it does today - try a calculator with 1.7% and then 15% which I and others were paying. It's harder today, but that's to ignore that it wasn't exactly a bed of roses in the 70's 80's and early 90's

My dream home is one that keeps a roof over my head

I don't even need it to be that warm

I just cover myself in extra blankets

I am a minimalist

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

I bought my 1st house in The Hawthorns [Pentwyn], in 1976/7. for £14,000.According to Zoopla It sold for £140,000 a couple of yrs ago. Interest rates were 14%. Mortgage rates 16% at least at times. I was earning less than £5k. I'd saved for 4yrs with the Woolwich B.S. to get the deposit.
No help from f*cking anyone. Today a mortgage on that house would cost not far off what I was paying with a less than £5k salary. All furniture borrowed or begged.
It's never been easy buying a house, the differences between know and then are exaggerated..

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So you bought a house for 14k when you were earning 5k and it sold for 140k a few years ago. Do you not see why this is an issue for younger people?
For someone to have bought that house with 3 years salary they’d need to be earning ~50k a year, nearly double the average wage. Not accounting for the fact house prices have continued rising since the house sold so I wouldn’t be surprised if it was closer to 160k-200k.
I don’t know anyone under 30 even close to those sort of wages. Most are earning 20k-25k and dealing with a much higher cost of living than back in the 70’s and with interest rates closer to 1.4% than 14%.

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Originally Posted by Canton Kev

So you bought a house for 14k when you were earning 5k and it sold for 140k a few years ago. Do you not see why this is an issue for younger people?
For someone to have bought that house with 3 years salary they’d need to be earning ~50k a year, nearly double the average wage. Not accounting for the fact house prices have continued rising since the house sold so I wouldn’t be surprised if it was closer to 160k-200k.
I don’t know anyone under 30 even close to those sort of wages. Most are earning 20k-25k and dealing with a much higher cost of living than back in the 70’s and with interest rates closer to 1.4% than 14%.

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Don't bother, he doesn't understand. He seems to think because interest rates were higher then nothing else matters. He completely ignored the fact the young people are struggling more than ever to even get a mortgage despite doing everything right.

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Originally Posted by Canton Kev

So you bought a house for 14k when you were earning 5k and it sold for 140k a few years ago. Do you not see why this is an issue for younger people?
For someone to have bought that house with 3 years salary they’d need to be earning ~50k a year, nearly double the average wage. Not accounting for the fact house prices have continued rising since the house sold so I wouldn’t be surprised if it was closer to 160k-200k.
I don’t know anyone under 30 even close to those sort of wages. Most are earning 20k-25k and dealing with a much higher cost of living than back in the 70’s and with interest rates closer to 1.4% than 14%.

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No. I didn't say that.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

No. I didn't say that.

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“I bought my 1st house for £14,000.According to Zoopla It sold for £140,000 a couple of yrs ago. I was earning less than £5k.”

That’s what you said. From what you said I assumed it was closer to 5k than 4K, not that it really changes my point. If you were on 4k your house was worth 3.5 years wages, if you were on 5k it was just shy of 3 years wages.

People go on about the Interest rates were far higher back then but they were on far far lower mortgage balances.
If you rode it out then you benefiting now from massive equity.

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Originally Posted by Canton Kev

“I bought my 1st house for £14,000.According to Zoopla It sold for £140,000 a couple of yrs ago. I was earning less than £5k.”

That’s what you said. From what you said I assumed it was closer to 5k than 4K, not that it really changes my point. If you were on 4k your house was worth 3.5 years wages, if you were on 5k it was just shy of 3 years wages.

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My salary was probably equivalent to high twenties now, say £28,000 today. You can get 4x joint salary mortgages or close to 5.5times for singe. So that works out over £200k for a joint application. Then there's 1.7% interest compared to 15%.

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

My salary was probably equivalent to high twenties now, say £28,000 today. You can get 4x joint salary mortgages or close to 5.5times for singe. So that works out over £200k for a joint application. Then there's 1.7% interest compared to 15%.

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So if all that is true, what is your theory on way so few people under 35 are able to get on the housing ladder?

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Originally Posted by lardy

So if all that is true, what is your theory on way so few people under 35 are able to get on the housing ladder?

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Not saying it isn't easy nowadays, probably a lot harder, but I don't think some , especially couples, are prepared to start at the bottom and work their way up - they seem to want the whole caboosh - dream house, kitchen, furniture, all straight away. The average spend on a wedding is £20k, so that's a 10% deposit on a £200k home

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Not saying it isn't easy nowadays, probably a lot harder, but I don't think some , especially couples, are prepared to start at the bottom and work their way up - they seem to want the whole caboosh - dream house, kitchen, furniture, all straight away. The average spend on a wedding is £20k, so that's a 10% deposit on a £200k home

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I guess one of two things can be true:

1) there has been a wide change in attitudes since the 1970s. People from all corners of the country simultaneously have developed very different attitudes to their parents

Or

2) there's a mix of attitudes, and people who are educated to a high level, "uneducated" but with a skill, hardworkers, lazy, all of them are having a similar problem getting their first purchase.

Can it really be that so many would rather get their dream house or nothing at all, or may there be some other financial factors?

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

Not saying it isn't easy nowadays, probably a lot harder, but I don't think some , especially couples, are prepared to start at the bottom and work their way up - they seem to want the whole caboosh - dream house, kitchen, furniture, all straight away. The average spend on a wedding is £20k, so that's a 10% deposit on a £200k home

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You've said this a few times about young people wanting it all in a house, where's your evidence for this?

In regards to weddings again what's your evidence to say young people are spending £20,000 on a wedding instead of a house deposit?

The average age of people getting married is about 38 for men and 35 for women so you're hitting the wrong generation there (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...and-and-wales/).

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

My salary was probably equivalent to high twenties now, say £28,000 today. You can get 4x joint salary mortgages or close to 5.5times for singe. So that works out over £200k for a joint application. Then there's 1.7% interest compared to 15%.

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Attachment 4614

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Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish

I don't think some , especially couples, are prepared to start at the bottom and work their way up - they seem to want the whole caboosh - dream house, kitchen, furniture, all straight away.

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What's this statement based on?