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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
A Quiet Monkfish
Yesterday 11,719 voted for Labour candidate.
Gen. Election 10,908 voted for Labour candidate.
Of course it's nothing other than a terrible result for the Tories, but that's not the full picture..
Interesting data. A similar situation occurred in the recent Scottish by-election where there was a much trumpeted win for Labour over the SNP.. Turnout was down from 66% in the last GE to 40%. The actual number of votes for the Labour candidate was almost the same as in the last GE but the SNP voters obviously stayed away in their thousands.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gofer Blue
Interesting data. A similar situation occurred in the recent Scottish by-election where there was a much trumpeted win for Labour over the SNP.. Turnout was down from 66% in the last GE to 40%. The actual number of votes for the Labour candidate was almost the same as in the last GE but the SNP voters obviously stayed away in their thousands.
Either way in the two English and 1 Scottish by election the tories got beaten in all 3
Which is great as far as I am concerned
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
Either way in the two English and 1 Scottish by election the tories got beaten in all 3
Which is great as far as I am concerned
Never having looked at any individual election results in detail before (apart from our own constituency), I decided to have a look at the results of the recent Tamworth and Mid-Beds by-election results and compared them against the 2019 GE results, to see what effect the low turnout may have had on the number of votes cast for the two main parties.
Tamworth: number of electorate = 71,572
2019 GE: Lab 10,908 votes; Con 30,542 votes. Turnout 64% (equivalent to approx 46K voters).
2023 by-election: Lab 11,719 votes; Con 10,403 votes. Turnout 36% (equivalent to approx 26K voters).
So 20K less people voted in 2023 compared to 2019. Lab vote more or less the same but Con vote down approx 20K .
Conclusion: Con voters stayed at home?
Mid-Beds: number of electorate = 87,795
2019 GE: Lab 14,028 votes; Con 38,692 votes. Turnout 74% (equivalent to approx 65K voters).
2023 by-election: Lab 13,872 votes; Con 12,680 votes. Turnout 44% (equivalent to approx 39K voters).
So 26K less people voted in 2023 compared to 2019. Lab vote more or less the same but Con vote down approx 26K .
Conclusion: Con voters stayed at home?
If anyone has the time/inclination to check my figures, that would be good as I can hardly believe them myself, in the sense of the apparently good correlation between the reduction in turnout and the drop in Tory votes.
I'm surprised the Tories haven't seized on these results to reinforce their message that by-election results don't really mean very much?
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gofer Blue
Never having looked at any individual election results in detail before (apart from our own constituency), I decided to have a look at the results of the recent Tamworth and Mid-Beds by-election results and compared them against the 2019 GE results, to see what effect the low turnout may have had on the number of votes cast for the two main parties.
Tamworth: number of electorate = 71,572
2019 GE: Lab 10,908 votes; Con 30,542 votes. Turnout 64% (equivalent to approx 46K voters).
2023 by-election: Lab 11,719 votes; Con 10,403 votes. Turnout 36% (equivalent to approx 26K voters).
So 20K less people voted in 2023 compared to 2019. Lab vote more or less the same but Con vote down approx 20K .
Conclusion: Con voters stayed at home?
Mid-Beds: number of electorate = 87,795
2019 GE: Lab 14,028 votes; Con 38,692 votes. Turnout 74% (equivalent to approx 65K voters).
2023 by-election: Lab 13,872 votes; Con 12,680 votes. Turnout 44% (equivalent to approx 39K voters).
So 26K less people voted in 2023 compared to 2019. Lab vote more or less the same but Con vote down approx 26K .
Conclusion: Con voters stayed at home?
If anyone has the time/inclination to check my figures, that would be good as I can hardly believe them myself, in the sense of the apparently good correlation between the reduction in turnout and the drop in Tory votes.
I'm surprised the Tories haven't seized on these results to reinforce their message that by-election results don't really mean very much?
If you are correct and the victory for Labour in both cases was down directly to the tory vote staying at home then clearly in the next 12 months the mantra from downing Street will change from look at us to get out and vote or you will get labour
And I would imagine the same will be said of Labour
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Labour's so called landslide in 1997 was more down to a fall in the Conservative vote than a rise in the Labour one and the Labour wins in 2001 and 2005 were with a pretty small proportion of the vote - I think we live in a time where people are more motivated to vote against a particular party than for one (that definitely applies to me).
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gofer Blue
Never having looked at any individual election results in detail before (apart from our own constituency), I decided to have a look at the results of the recent Tamworth and Mid-Beds by-election results and compared them against the 2019 GE results, to see what effect the low turnout may have had on the number of votes cast for the two main parties.
Tamworth: number of electorate = 71,572
2019 GE: Lab 10,908 votes; Con 30,542 votes. Turnout 64% (equivalent to approx 46K voters).
2023 by-election: Lab 11,719 votes; Con 10,403 votes. Turnout 36% (equivalent to approx 26K voters).
So 20K less people voted in 2023 compared to 2019. Lab vote more or less the same but Con vote down approx 20K .
Conclusion: Con voters stayed at home?
Mid-Beds: number of electorate = 87,795
2019 GE: Lab 14,028 votes; Con 38,692 votes. Turnout 74% (equivalent to approx 65K voters).
2023 by-election: Lab 13,872 votes; Con 12,680 votes. Turnout 44% (equivalent to approx 39K voters).
So 26K less people voted in 2023 compared to 2019. Lab vote more or less the same but Con vote down approx 26K .
Conclusion: Con voters stayed at home?
If anyone has the time/inclination to check my figures, that would be good as I can hardly believe them myself, in the sense of the apparently good correlation between the reduction in turnout and the drop in Tory votes.
I'm surprised the Tories haven't seized on these results to reinforce their message that by-election results don't really mean very much?
Far too simplistic imo
The issue with this type of analysis is that we already have significant evidence that seats can swing massively in a general election. Political alegience isn't an immutable characteristic like skin colour so can't be analysed as such. After a loss like 2019, there is a lot of scope for a national swing from conservative to labour under the two main narratives of Corbyn and Brexit. This analysis also doesn't allow for labour losing voters who felt allied to Corbyn in 2017 and 2019. You also haven't allowed for smaller parties, for instance reform, Britain first and ukip took nearly 10% of the vote in Tamworth, where did that likely come from?
The likely reality is:
Yes some of the 2019 conservative vote stayed at home
Yes some of the conservative vote switched to labour
Yes there was some tactical centre left voting
Yes labour will have turned off some voters
The Tories will be confident they can at very least make a good stab at winning these seats back at a GE, the issue for them is that these are probably seats they need to hold to break 200 seats let alone a majority.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
Far too simplistic imo
The issue with this type of analysis is that we already have significant evidence that seats can swing massively in a general election. Political alegience isn't an immutable characteristic like skin colour so can't be analysed as such. After a loss like 2019, there is a lot of scope for a national swing from conservative to labour under the two main narratives of Corbyn and Brexit. This analysis also doesn't allow for labour losing voters who felt allied to Corbyn in 2017 and 2019. You also haven't allowed for smaller parties, for instance reform, Britain first and ukip took nearly 10% of the vote in Tamworth, where did that likely come from?
The likely reality is:
Yes some of the 2019 conservative vote stayed at home
Yes some of the conservative vote switched to labour
Yes there was some tactical centre left voting
Yes labour will have turned off some voters
The Tories will be confident they can at very least make a good stab at winning these seats back at a GE, the issue for them is that these are probably seats they need to hold to break 200 seats let alone a majority.
This is what I meant by crap opposition
If Starmer had anything about him there would be a genuine movement towards Labour rather than voting to get the tories out
Plenty of people are voting Labour to get the tories out , me included
But it's the rest that need to be convinced
And that's why I think it will either be a hung parliament with Labour doing a deal with smaller parties or a minority Labour administration
I would be happy with anything that doesn't include the conservatives
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
This is what I meant by crap opposition
If Starmer had anything about him there would be a genuine movement towards Labour rather than voting to get the tories out
Plenty of people are voting Labour to get the tories out , me included
But it's the rest that need to be convinced
And that's why I think it will either be a hung parliament with Labour doing a deal with smaller parties or a minority Labour administration
I would be happy with anything that doesn't include the conservatives
I'm puzzled by what you actually want from politics.
you hate the Tories, you don't like the lib Dems, you didn't like Corbyn, and you don't like Starmer - what is it you actually want?
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
This is what I meant by crap opposition
If Starmer had anything about him there would be a genuine movement towards Labour rather than voting to get the tories out
Plenty of people are voting Labour to get the tories out , me included
But it's the rest that need to be convinced
And that's why I think it will either be a hung parliament with Labour doing a deal with smaller parties or a minority Labour administration
I would be happy with anything that doesn't include the conservatives
Labour don't need to take the risk. If they start announcing things they will need to explain how they will pay for them. Instead they can just sit tight and win a comfortable majority, this is why all of the leadership's energy appears to go into keeping people away from doing/saying anything controversial.
If you truly believe that is going to happen then you may as well make some money from it. I have been convinced labour would get a majority for about 18 months now (although at times it did feel like blind optimism), the odds are now a lot closer to what I have felt the chances have been for a long time. You can lay a labour majority and make a tidy sum.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
I'm puzzled by what you actually want from politics.
you hate the Tories, you don't like the lib Dems, you didn't like Corbyn, and you don't like Starmer - what is it you actually want?
Corbyn's policy's with Ted Bundy's charisma.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
I'm puzzled by what you actually want from politics.
you hate the Tories, you don't like the lib Dems, you didn't like Corbyn, and you don't like Starmer - what is it you actually want?
Proportional representation
That way the left and centre ground and minority parties can keep the tories out almost permanently
My dislike of the tories over rules everything
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
Labour don't need to take the risk. If they start announcing things they will need to explain how they will pay for them. Instead they can just sit tight and win a comfortable majority, this is why all of the leadership's energy appears to go into keeping people away from doing/saying anything controversial.
If you truly believe that is going to happen then you may as well make some money from it. I have been convinced labour would get a majority for about 18 months now (although at times it did feel like blind optimism), the odds are now a lot closer to what I have felt the chances have been for a long time. You can lay a labour majority and make a tidy sum.
I am glad Labour are not saying too much as they will put their foot in it
But Starmer and Ed Davey are absolutely hopeless
I think if Labour had a Blair without the suit and Liberal Democrats a sort of clegg in presentation they would Bury the tories
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
I am glad Labour are not saying too much as they will put their foot in it
But Starmer and Ed Davey are absolutely hopeless
I think if Labour had a Blair without the suit and Liberal Democrats a sort of clegg in presentation they would Bury the tories
they are currently burying the Tories. it's not Labours fault that the do nothing strategy is working so well.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
they are currently burying the Tories. it's not Labours fault that the do nothing strategy is working so well.
Basically Starmer isn't sexy enough
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
they are currently burying the Tories. it's not Labours fault that the do nothing strategy is working so well.
Their vote isn't increasing though is it ?
It's a risky strategy relying on a poor turnout from tory voters
If they come out on election day it could be very close so some bait in terms of policy needs to be put out to the floaters
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
Their vote isn't increasing though is it ?
It's a risky strategy relying on a poor turnout from tory voters
If they come out on election day it could be very close so some bait in terms of policy needs to be put out to the floaters
They aren't relying on poor turnout ffs, they are on average 15-20 points ahead in the polls nationally.
If labour wins Tamworth and Mid Beds in a general election you will need to be a world champion at Where's Wally to find the Tories in the commons. These are not seats that labour need to win to end up with a majority of 50.
You have made your mind up and are ignoring all the evidence in front of you which tells you the opposite.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
Their vote isn't increasing though is it ?
It's a risky strategy relying on a poor turnout from tory voters
If they come out on election day it could be very close so some bait in terms of policy needs to be put out to the floaters
if you believe the Tories then all of the stay away voters are Tory voters and will return in the general election- they is just fantasy, clutching at straws from the last throes of a crumbling regime.
the Tories have ****ed everything up，pretty much every aspect of life in this country has got worse during their time in power. they will not get back into power
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
They aren't relying on poor turnout ffs, they are on average 15-20 points ahead in the polls nationally.
If labour wins Tamworth and Mid Beds in a general election you will need to be a world champion at Where's Wally to find the Tories in the commons. These are not seats that labour need to win to end up with a majority of 50.
You have made your mind up and are ignoring all the evidence in front of you which tells you the opposite.
No I am not
I am being extremely sensible and cautious
I won't be celebrating until the tory party is out of government and Labour has plenty of time to cock it all up
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Rjk
if you believe the Tories then all of the stay away voters are Tory voters and will return in the general election- they is just fantasy, clutching at straws from the last throes of a crumbling regime.
the Tories have ****ed everything up，pretty much every aspect of life in this country has got worse during their time in power. they will not get back into power
I certainly hope so
But surely labour should be increasing their share of the vote more than they are ?
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
SLUDGE FACTORY
This is what I meant by crap opposition
If Starmer had anything about him there would be a genuine movement towards Labour rather than voting to get the tories out
Plenty of people are voting Labour to get the tories out , me included
But it's the rest that need to be convinced
And that's why I think it will either be a hung parliament with Labour doing a deal with smaller parties or a minority Labour administration
I would be happy with anything that doesn't include the conservatives
If someone was stupid enough to vote Tory in 2019, what makes you think they are going to switch now? The best we can hope for is that they will stay at home.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dave Blue
If someone was stupid enough to vote Tory in 2019, what makes you think they are going to switch now? The best we can hope for is that they will stay at home.
Because whether you agree with them or not, the two biggest reasons people were turned off labour in 2019 were Brexit and Corbyn.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
Because whether you agree with them or not, the two biggest reasons people were turned off labour in 2019 were Brexit and Corbyn.
And if any of them had an ounce of sense they would have voted Corbyn and not Brexit...cue Jimmy Wales!
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dorcus
And if any of them had an ounce of sense they would have voted Corbyn and not Brexit...cue Jimmy Wales!
Hey babes 😘
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Corbyn absoloute disaster of a man
An open goal for the daily mail firing squad
It reminded me of the split in labour when kinnock was doing his best to get the centre ground and Derek Hatton and Skinner and Tony Benn were mouthing off from the sidelines
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Eric Cartman
Far too simplistic imo
The issue with this type of analysis is that we already have significant evidence that seats can swing massively in a general election. Political alegience isn't an immutable characteristic like skin colour so can't be analysed as such. After a loss like 2019, there is a lot of scope for a national swing from conservative to labour under the two main narratives of Corbyn and Brexit. This analysis also doesn't allow for labour losing voters who felt allied to Corbyn in 2017 and 2019. You also haven't allowed for smaller parties, for instance reform, Britain first and ukip took nearly 10% of the vote in Tamworth, where did that likely come from?
The likely reality is:
Yes some of the 2019 conservative vote stayed at home
Yes some of the conservative vote switched to labour
Yes there was some tactical centre left voting
Yes labour will have turned off some voters
The Tories will be confident they can at very least make a good stab at winning these seats back at a GE, the issue for them is that these are probably seats they need to hold to break 200 seats let alone a majority.
Thanks for your comments.
I don't know where the votes for the "also rans" in Tamworth came from but 10% of 26,000 is...well...not a lot between seven candidates, so does it really matter where those votes came from? Six of the seven ranged from only 86 to 580 votes!
If Tamworth voters were affected by the Corbyn factor in 2019 then shouldn't we have seen a much larger Lab vote in 2023 as Corbyn is out of the loop?
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Turnout is always far far lower in by-elections so it's clearly an issue of many people who normally vote not turning out.
I think within that it's about who is more motivated to vote and then tends to benefit the status quo esp when MPs have resigned or retired in controversial circumstances.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gofer Blue
Thanks for your comments.
I don't know where the votes for the "also rans" in Tamworth came from but 10% of 26,000 is...well...not a lot between seven candidates, so does it really matter where those votes came from? Six of the seven ranged from only 86 to 580 votes!
If Tamworth voters were affected by the Corbyn factor in 2019 then shouldn't we have seen a much larger Lab vote in 2023 as Corbyn is out of the loop?
We don't know how many votes labour would have got if Corbyn was leader, by-election turnout is always lower. I did see a national poll done recently on 'if corbyn was leader' and the lib dems and conservatives did a fair bit better - implying that Labour are directly gaining votes from the tories because of corbyn going.
As for the first part - 10% is a lot when your base assumption is 'tory vote didn't turn up' and the most likely previous home for that 10% is Cons if they voted last time.
I think all we can say with certainty is that Labour are significantly ahead in the polls and now very likely to win a majority.
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Re: Voters In Tamworth Before By Election
