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They aren't relying on poor turnout ffs, they are on average 15-20 points ahead in the polls nationally.
If labour wins Tamworth and Mid Beds in a general election you will need to be a world champion at Where's Wally to find the Tories in the commons. These are not seats that labour need to win to end up with a majority of 50.
You have made your mind up and are ignoring all the evidence in front of you which tells you the opposite.
if you believe the Tories then all of the stay away voters are Tory voters and will return in the general election- they is just fantasy, clutching at straws from the last throes of a crumbling regime.
the Tories have ****ed everything up,pretty much every aspect of life in this country has got worse during their time in power. they will not get back into power
Corbyn absoloute disaster of a man
An open goal for the daily mail firing squad
It reminded me of the split in labour when kinnock was doing his best to get the centre ground and Derek Hatton and Skinner and Tony Benn were mouthing off from the sidelines
Thanks for your comments.
I don't know where the votes for the "also rans" in Tamworth came from but 10% of 26,000 is...well...not a lot between seven candidates, so does it really matter where those votes came from? Six of the seven ranged from only 86 to 580 votes!
If Tamworth voters were affected by the Corbyn factor in 2019 then shouldn't we have seen a much larger Lab vote in 2023 as Corbyn is out of the loop?
Turnout is always far far lower in by-elections so it's clearly an issue of many people who normally vote not turning out.
I think within that it's about who is more motivated to vote and then tends to benefit the status quo esp when MPs have resigned or retired in controversial circumstances.
We don't know how many votes labour would have got if Corbyn was leader, by-election turnout is always lower. I did see a national poll done recently on 'if corbyn was leader' and the lib dems and conservatives did a fair bit better - implying that Labour are directly gaining votes from the tories because of corbyn going.
As for the first part - 10% is a lot when your base assumption is 'tory vote didn't turn up' and the most likely previous home for that 10% is Cons if they voted last time.
I think all we can say with certainty is that Labour are significantly ahead in the polls and now very likely to win a majority.