Voters In Tamworth Before By Election

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Originally Posted by Rjk

I'm puzzled by what you actually want from politics.

you hate the Tories, you don't like the lib Dems, you didn't like Corbyn, and you don't like Starmer - what is it you actually want?

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Proportional representation

That way the left and centre ground and minority parties can keep the tories out almost permanently

My dislike of the tories over rules everything

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

Labour don't need to take the risk. If they start announcing things they will need to explain how they will pay for them. Instead they can just sit tight and win a comfortable majority, this is why all of the leadership's energy appears to go into keeping people away from doing/saying anything controversial.

If you truly believe that is going to happen then you may as well make some money from it. I have been convinced labour would get a majority for about 18 months now (although at times it did feel like blind optimism), the odds are now a lot closer to what I have felt the chances have been for a long time. You can lay a labour majority and make a tidy sum.

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I am glad Labour are not saying too much as they will put their foot in it

But Starmer and Ed Davey are absolutely hopeless

I think if Labour had a Blair without the suit and Liberal Democrats a sort of clegg in presentation they would Bury the tories

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

I am glad Labour are not saying too much as they will put their foot in it

But Starmer and Ed Davey are absolutely hopeless

I think if Labour had a Blair without the suit and Liberal Democrats a sort of clegg in presentation they would Bury the tories

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they are currently burying the Tories. it's not Labours fault that the do nothing strategy is working so well.

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Originally Posted by Rjk

they are currently burying the Tories. it's not Labours fault that the do nothing strategy is working so well.

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Basically Starmer isn't sexy enough

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Originally Posted by Rjk

they are currently burying the Tories. it's not Labours fault that the do nothing strategy is working so well.

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Their vote isn't increasing though is it ?

It's a risky strategy relying on a poor turnout from tory voters

If they come out on election day it could be very close so some bait in terms of policy needs to be put out to the floaters

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

Their vote isn't increasing though is it ?

It's a risky strategy relying on a poor turnout from tory voters

If they come out on election day it could be very close so some bait in terms of policy needs to be put out to the floaters

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They aren't relying on poor turnout ffs, they are on average 15-20 points ahead in the polls nationally.

If labour wins Tamworth and Mid Beds in a general election you will need to be a world champion at Where's Wally to find the Tories in the commons. These are not seats that labour need to win to end up with a majority of 50.

You have made your mind up and are ignoring all the evidence in front of you which tells you the opposite.

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

Their vote isn't increasing though is it ?

It's a risky strategy relying on a poor turnout from tory voters

If they come out on election day it could be very close so some bait in terms of policy needs to be put out to the floaters

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if you believe the Tories then all of the stay away voters are Tory voters and will return in the general election- they is just fantasy, clutching at straws from the last throes of a crumbling regime.

the Tories have ****ed everything up，pretty much every aspect of life in this country has got worse during their time in power. they will not get back into power

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

They aren't relying on poor turnout ffs, they are on average 15-20 points ahead in the polls nationally.

If labour wins Tamworth and Mid Beds in a general election you will need to be a world champion at Where's Wally to find the Tories in the commons. These are not seats that labour need to win to end up with a majority of 50.

You have made your mind up and are ignoring all the evidence in front of you which tells you the opposite.

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No I am not

I am being extremely sensible and cautious

I won't be celebrating until the tory party is out of government and Labour has plenty of time to cock it all up

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Originally Posted by Rjk

if you believe the Tories then all of the stay away voters are Tory voters and will return in the general election- they is just fantasy, clutching at straws from the last throes of a crumbling regime.

the Tories have ****ed everything up，pretty much every aspect of life in this country has got worse during their time in power. they will not get back into power

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I certainly hope so

But surely labour should be increasing their share of the vote more than they are ?

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Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY

This is what I meant by crap opposition

If Starmer had anything about him there would be a genuine movement towards Labour rather than voting to get the tories out

Plenty of people are voting Labour to get the tories out , me included

But it's the rest that need to be convinced

And that's why I think it will either be a hung parliament with Labour doing a deal with smaller parties or a minority Labour administration

I would be happy with anything that doesn't include the conservatives

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If someone was stupid enough to vote Tory in 2019, what makes you think they are going to switch now? The best we can hope for is that they will stay at home.

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Originally Posted by Dave Blue

If someone was stupid enough to vote Tory in 2019, what makes you think they are going to switch now? The best we can hope for is that they will stay at home.

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Because whether you agree with them or not, the two biggest reasons people were turned off labour in 2019 were Brexit and Corbyn.

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

Because whether you agree with them or not, the two biggest reasons people were turned off labour in 2019 were Brexit and Corbyn.

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And if any of them had an ounce of sense they would have voted Corbyn and not Brexit...cue Jimmy Wales!

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Originally Posted by Dorcus

And if any of them had an ounce of sense they would have voted Corbyn and not Brexit...cue Jimmy Wales!

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Hey babes 😘

Corbyn absoloute disaster of a man

An open goal for the daily mail firing squad

It reminded me of the split in labour when kinnock was doing his best to get the centre ground and Derek Hatton and Skinner and Tony Benn were mouthing off from the sidelines

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Originally Posted by Eric Cartman

Far too simplistic imo

The issue with this type of analysis is that we already have significant evidence that seats can swing massively in a general election. Political alegience isn't an immutable characteristic like skin colour so can't be analysed as such. After a loss like 2019, there is a lot of scope for a national swing from conservative to labour under the two main narratives of Corbyn and Brexit. This analysis also doesn't allow for labour losing voters who felt allied to Corbyn in 2017 and 2019. You also haven't allowed for smaller parties, for instance reform, Britain first and ukip took nearly 10% of the vote in Tamworth, where did that likely come from?

The likely reality is:

Yes some of the 2019 conservative vote stayed at home
Yes some of the conservative vote switched to labour
Yes there was some tactical centre left voting
Yes labour will have turned off some voters

The Tories will be confident they can at very least make a good stab at winning these seats back at a GE, the issue for them is that these are probably seats they need to hold to break 200 seats let alone a majority.

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Thanks for your comments.

I don't know where the votes for the "also rans" in Tamworth came from but 10% of 26,000 is...well...not a lot between seven candidates, so does it really matter where those votes came from? Six of the seven ranged from only 86 to 580 votes!

If Tamworth voters were affected by the Corbyn factor in 2019 then shouldn't we have seen a much larger Lab vote in 2023 as Corbyn is out of the loop?

Turnout is always far far lower in by-elections so it's clearly an issue of many people who normally vote not turning out.

I think within that it's about who is more motivated to vote and then tends to benefit the status quo esp when MPs have resigned or retired in controversial circumstances.

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Originally Posted by Gofer Blue

Thanks for your comments.

I don't know where the votes for the "also rans" in Tamworth came from but 10% of 26,000 is...well...not a lot between seven candidates, so does it really matter where those votes came from? Six of the seven ranged from only 86 to 580 votes!

If Tamworth voters were affected by the Corbyn factor in 2019 then shouldn't we have seen a much larger Lab vote in 2023 as Corbyn is out of the loop?

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We don't know how many votes labour would have got if Corbyn was leader, by-election turnout is always lower. I did see a national poll done recently on 'if corbyn was leader' and the lib dems and conservatives did a fair bit better - implying that Labour are directly gaining votes from the tories because of corbyn going.

As for the first part - 10% is a lot when your base assumption is 'tory vote didn't turn up' and the most likely previous home for that 10% is Cons if they voted last time.

I think all we can say with certainty is that Labour are significantly ahead in the polls and now very likely to win a majority.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/..._20230929.html