Drakeford banned from one hundred pubs

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

If my calculations are correct, then so far in 2020 approximately 0.1% of the Welsh public has died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test, and we know full well that many of those people almost certainly didn't die as a result of the effects of the virus itself (although there are others who probably did die in such circumstances but who either weren't tested or whose deaths weren't properly recorded).

I'm certainly not a conspiracy theorist or a Covid-19 denier, but I've reached the stage where I'm now absolutely convinced that the ongoing steps being taken to tackle the virus are excessive and disproportionate to the risk it poses for the vast majority of the population.

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I didn't realize you were so knowledgeable. Care to outline your apparent expertise in epidemiology?

Or is it about the same as your half-time penalty challenge in flared jeans **** up when you fell on your arse? We all saw it.

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Originally Posted by az city

I didn't realize you were so knowledgeable. Care to outline your apparent expertise in epidemiology?

Or is it about the same as your half-time penalty challenge in flared jeans **** up when you fell on your arse? We all saw it.

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I don't have any expertise in epidemiology, but then neither do the likes of Mark Drakeford, Vaughan Gething, Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, etc.

Nice, cowardly reference to a half-time challenge back in 2005. Very relevant. I'm not an optician or a doctor, but I know that either your eyes are knackered or your memory's ****ed, as the challenge you're referring to had nothing to do with penalties and I've never owned a pair of flared jeans in my life, so all things considered you've made yourself look a bit of a ****.

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Originally Posted by NYCBlue

I don't know where you got your figures from, but from the numbers I found, the death rate in the US of confirmed cases is 2% and worldwide it's 2.3%.

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Is that the percentage of people who have died after testing positive for Covid-19 or the percentage of the population who have died after testing positive for Covid-19?

My calculation was simple - the population of Wales in 2019 was estimated at 3,136,000. So far in 2020, approximately 3,240 people have died with Covid-19 on their death certificates according to a recent BBC report, although the latest figure on their new pages (as of 15 hours ago) is lower still at 2,638.

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Originally Posted by NYCBlue

But what about the risks it poses to the .1%? And the resources that it takes to help them and whatever the percentage of survivors is that require hospital care?

Also, I don't know where you got your figures from, but from the numbers I found, the death rate in the US of confirmed cases is 2% and worldwide it's 2.3%. Obviously, there are people who get the disease and never know about it or don't report it, but it can't be anything like 20 unreported cases to 1 reported one. Anyway, with the post-Thanksgiving bump we're supposed to get, followed by a post-Christmas one, followed by 2 months of mid-winter. Some doctors estimate that the US could see more than 500,000 Covid-19 deaths before a vaccine becomes widely available.

I know it can be costly, frustrating and painful. I've had family members pass away whose funerals I was unable to attend. Two family reunions canceled, a 96-year-old aunt (in-law) I may never see again. I'm sure everyone has a story. But to me, whatever it takes is worth it until enough people can get vaccinated so it's safe for everyone to get back to normal. Also, next winter, when everyone is coughing and spluttering on the coach I take into the city every day I'll be wearing a mask. I've thought about it in the past.

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In the UK I don't think it's about deaths any more. It's about trying to ensure the underfunded NHS isn't swamped. As the virus spreads quickly and easily, the rate has to be managed.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Is that the percentage of people who have died after testing positive for Covid-19 or the percentage of the population who have died after testing positive for Covid-19?

My calculation was simple - the population of Wales in 2019 was estimated at 3,136,000. So far in 2020, approximately 3,240 people have died with Covid-19 on their death certificates according to a recent BBC report, although the latest figure on their new pages (as of 15 hours ago) is lower still at 2,638.

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Wouldn't the figure based on population rise as more people die? When the first Welsh Covid death happened, that would have meant the percentage of the population that had died of it would have been 0.000032%....

BBC News - 'Covid killed my wife - so I'm taking part in a vaccine trial'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55168292

56 year old

Dead

Shouldn't we be worrying about everyone?

I can assure you there are more patients in hospital down here in West Wales than there were in April. The latest lockdown both in Wales and the rest of the UK are there not only to reduce deaths but to try to stop hospitals being overwhelmed with cases.
I dont get this idea its ok as it's only 1% die. Every death is a tragedy, whether your 19 or 99.
Covid is a nasty disease, and the attitude of some is showing a selfishness that I personally find disappointing.

Drakeford being ridiculed on TV this morning by Gyles Brandreth, who I used to really dislike but now I find rather funny..

"I'm rather fascinated by MD, he has touch of the hammer House of horror about him".
"Has he ever smiled?"
"Like Oliver Cromwell trying to cancel Christmas"
"Has a rather Lagubrious manner and seems to take delight in bringing bad news"
"Let's close the pubs at 10, 9, 8, 7, 6..."

It would have been hilarious if it wasn't so true.

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Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee

Wouldn't the figure based on population rise as more people die?

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Naturally. Will the figure reach 0.2% or greater before 31/12/2020? I hope not and I doubt it.

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Originally Posted by Former Labour leader

I dont get this idea its ok as it's only 1% die.

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It's not 1%, it's 0.1%. A tenth of a percent.

Who has said it's OK if only 1% die?

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

If my calculations are correct, then so far in 2020 approximately 0.1% of the Welsh public has died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test, and we know full well that many of those people almost certainly didn't die as a result of the effects of the virus itself (although there are others who probably did die in such circumstances but who either weren't tested or whose deaths weren't properly recorded).

I'm certainly not a conspiracy theorist or a Covid-19 denier, but I've reached the stage where I'm now absolutely convinced that the ongoing steps being taken to tackle the virus are excessive and disproportionate to the risk it poses for the vast majority of the population.

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Originally Posted by xsnaggle

I agree entirely.
Add to that the point that of those 0.1% who unfortunately have died it is well known that the vast majority were either, already suffering from some underlying illness/complaint, or in a care home or a serving member of a NHS facility or over 80 years of age. (Or a combination of 2 or more of these things). If you remove these from the 0.1% i wonder what the figure would be.
So we know the people whom we really need to protect, and if much greater effort was put into protecting them and helping them then the rest could get on with their lives.

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There have been 60,000+ excess deaths in the uk this year compared to any other year and that's with restrictions. The restrictions are to stop hospitals being overwhelmed or people who aren't as at risk to the virus will die.

Does it really matter if the people who died this year were old and had underlying conditions, should they just be written off?

0.1% is still a high percentage of people to be dying too whatever metric you're measuring.

I think just focussing on the deaths completely ignores how the virus spread, how the virus affects people (especially in higher viral doses) and what the consequences of the health system being overwhelmed are.

We all want to go back to normal but in the grand scheme of things we've all made the smallest sacrifice in history for less than a year and things will soon be going back to normal.

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Originally Posted by Former Labour leader

I can assure you there are more patients in hospital down here in West Wales than there were in April. The latest lockdown both in Wales and the rest of the UK are there not only to reduce deaths but to try to stop hospitals being overwhelmed with cases.
I dont get this idea its ok as it's only 1% die. Every death is a tragedy, whether your 19 or 99.
Covid is a nasty disease, and the attitude of some is showing a selfishness that I personally find disappointing.

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Well said, the most conservative of the three sets of official figures show 60,000 plus people have died of the virus this year, that's a full house in the Emirates Stadium or the population of places like Wrexham, Hereford and Widnes which I would say is a very large number by any standards.

Perfectly healthy people have died from covid

Its effects can vary from person to person

All of us have some kind of underlying condition to some extent

What if one of the posters on here in say his early fifties dies from covid leaving a wife and kids ?

Mass gatherings are where this thing grows , for a few years we are going to have to do without live football, holidays to Spain and getting pissed up on a Friday night . TOOL were going to tour Europe, thars me fecked .

Deal with it ff sake

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Originally Posted by the other bob wilson

Well said, the most conservative of the three sets of official figures show 60,000 plus people have died of the virus this year, that's a full house in the Emirates Stadium or the population of places like Wrexham, Hereford and Widnes which I would say is a very large number by any standards.

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Died of the virus? Or died with the virus? Or died within 28 days of a positive test for the virus? Or is that figure the total of UK excess deaths of all causes during 2020?

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I think just focussing on the deaths completely ignores how the virus spread, how the virus affects people (especially in higher viral doses) and what the consequences of the health system being overwhelmed are.

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I can't speak for xsnaggle (thank God), but I'm not focussing on deaths and I'm certainly not ignoring the consequences of either the virus itself or the measures that are being used to combat it.

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Originally Posted by Former Labour leader;5141 have829

I can assure you there are more patients in hospital down here in West Wales than there were in April. The latest lockdown both in Wales and the rest of the UK are there not only to reduce deaths but to try to stop hospitals being overwhelmed with cases.
I dont get this idea its ok as it's only 1% die. Every death is a tragedy, whether your 19 or 99.
Covid is a nasty disease, and the attitude of some is showing a selfishness that I personally find disappointing.

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Spot on former Jeremy, I couldn't agree more

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Died of the virus? Or died with the virus? Or died within 28 days of a positive test for the virus? Or is that figure the total of UK excess deaths of all causes during 2020?

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60,000 more deaths than we get on average. Unless it's a coincidence then it has to be down to covid.

That's with restrictions, we got a glimpse in April of how the health service could get overwhelmed. With no restrictions it would be worse.

There's definitely an argument to be made that the restrictions don't make sense (I would shut the pubs before banning serving alcohol) but I don't think they're more than we need.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

It's not 1%, it's 0.1%. A tenth of a percent.

Who has said it's OK if only 1% die?

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But it's not 0.1% of Infected people who have died, it's approx 0.1% of the entire UK population. I don't know what the current number of infections are but I doubt there are as many as circa 6 million. If that were the case the true death rate would reach 1%.

Also, if you strip out the number of children in the country, who don't appear to suffer I'll effects from the virus then the true adult damage is higher again.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

60,000 more deaths than we get on average. Unless it's a coincidence then it has to be down to covid.

That's with restrictions, we got a glimpse in April of how the health service could get overwhelmed. With no restrictions it would be worse.

There's definitely an argument to be made that the restrictions don't make sense (I would shut the pubs before banning serving alcohol) but I don't think they're more than we need.

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Lockdowns and restrictions keep the death rate low.

People say the death rate is low so we don't need lockdowns and restrictions.

:shrug:

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

Died of the virus? Or died with the virus? Or died within 28 days of a positive test for the virus? Or is that figure the total of UK excess deaths of all causes during 2020?

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This is a particularly shitty attitude. It attempts to trivialize the disease and its effects and is a gateway to denial. You're basically accusing an entity of inflating figures for some perceived gain. Why?

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Originally Posted by NYCBlue

This is a particularly shitty attitude. It attempts to trivialize the disease and its effects and is a gateway to denial. You're basically accusing an entity of inflating figures for some perceived gain. Why?

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I'm doing absolutely nothing of the sort.

People are dying of all sorts of causes throughout the UK and a percentage of them are dying because they are not getting the treatment they need due to the way in which the Covid-19 pandemic has and is being handled. Senior healthcare officials, medical experts and politicians have regularly stated as much and have appealed to people to continue to use the health services they need but are currently avoiding because of Covid-19.

I've recently had treatment for a health problem that required visits to both my GP and the Heath Hospital. The number of people in both places (or rather the lack of them) was staggering by comparison to the numbers that were present when I last visited those places in March.

I have maintained from the early stages that the true effect of the pandemic in terms of deaths is the excess deaths figures, as they are not narrowed down to any one cause. I think that distinction is a very important one.

As for having a shitty attitude, that accusation is more than a little ironic coming from you.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

.....we got a glimpse in April of how the health service could get overwhelmed.

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We got a glimpse in April of how badly unprepared the UK government and its health service was for a pandemic of this nature, and we also got a glimpse of how poorly such a situation could be managed when it did happen. I'd like to think the situation is very different now. Furthermore, the population is behaving entirely differently to how it was before the first spike, and that's been the case for more than eight months.

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Originally Posted by The Lone Gunman

We got a glimpse in April of how badly unprepared the UK government and its health service was for a pandemic of this nature, and we also got a glimpse of how poorly such a situation could be managed when it did happen. I'd like to think the situation is very different now. Furthermore, the population is behaving entirely differently to how it was before the first spike, and that's been the case for more than eight months.

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Yet our excess deaths every week are way above the usual averages.

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Originally Posted by lardy

Lockdowns and restrictions keep the death rate low.

People say the death rate is low so we don't need lockdowns and restrictions.

:shrug:

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I don't get the trivialising it by saying they had underlying conditions and it wasn't the covid that does it. It's someone getting shot and dying of a heart attack and concluding that bullets aren't that dangerous.

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Originally Posted by Croesy Blue

I don't get the trivialising it by saying they had underlying conditions and it wasn't the covid that does it. It's someone getting shot and dying of a heart attack and concluding that bullets aren't that dangerous.

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The same people usually accept the flu death numbers as being genuine when they compare, even though they will be just as flawed.