Who do you think will win tomorrow's general election?
Not who you will be voting for, who you think will win.
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Who do you think will win tomorrow's general election?
Not who you will be voting for, who you think will win.
Tories - with a majority of 40-60.
But with Corbyn on the up and May in decline.
Tories with majority of 18 . Corbyn has done much better than expected and Teresa has had a nightmayre..
I am pessimistic about turnout.
The raw polling returns show a Tory lead down to about 4%. When that is adjusted to reflect the track record of older voters actually voting and younger voters not, that lead goes up to 10%+
All the political analysis podcasts I have heard in the last few weeks say this election will be more polarised on generational grounds than ever seen in modern times. Labour is way ahead in younger age brackets in all areas of the country; the Tories lead with the older. The cross-over age is about 50.
I just have a niggling hope that Corbyn will turn out to be the surprise anti-establishment candidate that gets non-voters into the polling booths (the Brexit/Trump/Saunders effect), but I fear it will be the usual story of exaggerated Labour numbers, shy or embarrassed Tories placing their cross and crushing disappointment when the dust settles.
Con maj 50 although some positive polls for Lab tonight. ComRes and ICM look grim but Kantar now shows Con lead down to 5%,Survation with a Con lead at 2%,Panelbase shows Con lead at 8%, Opinium with a Con lead at 7%. You Gov,Ipsos Mori and a different Survation to follow tonight and all likely to show a close race.
Corbyn has run a terrific campaign. May has been pathetic
It's crazy what politicians can get away with these days and how much the media controls people's opinions.
100% Plaid Cymru. The only true party with Wales as its priority.
Tim nice but dim will win Cardiff North, just. Torys will win the election, but not the landslide that May was hoping for.
This will put more pressure on the £, Brexit negotiations will become harder and I can see a Tory leadership challenge and another frigging election within two years.
The Tories will win but with a massively reduced majority leading to Hung Parliament territory. Tories will look to the DUP who look under threat to bolster their numbers.
For me, it will be the best brains from a rainbow coalition of Labour, SNP, Plaid and Greens with Corbyn at the top.
UKIP and Lib Dems will be wiped out, but not before the help take the Tories out in the marginals.
The final YouGov shows a 3 point increase in the Con lead from 4 points to 7. So a 3 point increase in just 24 hours. Have YouGov bottled it?
Tory landslide.
Won't even be close.
Put the house on it.
Lets hope the polls are as accurate as last time, I recall comments like "this is the death of polling "" due to the inaccuracies against the actual result ?
*Double post*
Every poll I've seen has it much closer. If the huge new registered 18-25 group actually votes, plus everyone from the NHS, Police, HMRC etc votes then there will be some surprises.
If you're still in any doubt, and you're not happy right now then it's well worth visiting here:
https://www.tactical2017.com/
I think it will be a lot closer than thought by many a few weeks ago, but the secret Tories will carry them home, Jezza playing his ace card by ditching DA has come 3 weeks too late.
I shan't be voting as I'm totally anti brexshit and no party where I live represents that view.
French polling has been very accurate for years about election results. What do our over paid bollocks merchants do wrong over here ?
Conservative win with exactly the same majority as they had before. The whole election will have been pointless.
The polls have tended to be on %. Putting into seats is normally not so close. What do polls know, anyway.
It certainly needs the youth vote to be close. I can see the Tories extending the majority but not the landslide they were expecting in April. If this means labour finally become credible opposition then the election will have been worth it I guess.
The colours on the poll are all wrong by the way. All wrong. Sort it out moggs. Place is a laughing stock.
The polls have consistently had the Tories at 40 per cent plus - Tory majority of 60 to 100 for me.
I think it could be 70 - 80 for the conservatives possibly up to 100 if all goes well for them.
Unless the 18-24 turn out really is 90% as one of the polls (Survation I think) has presumed
If turnout is high, Tories to rule a hung Parliament
If turnout is lower, Tories to have 60 seat majority.
I reckon Tories will win with a majority of 35 plus the Unionists in Northern Ireland (may be fewer of those this time).
May will struggle to control her party - either the centrists or the right wingers (like the one who will talk to UKIP 4 times a year) will be her downfall. If it's the right that gets her, then Boris or Rudd will take over. If it's the centrists, who knows.
On the other side of the coin, should Labour lose out, Corbyn will stand down but it'll be important for the party to elect a leader that is on the political left. We've seen a great surge in Labour's vote now that Corbyn's message has been allowed to reach the masses. One can only ponder what this election might have been had the media not destroyed Corbyn from day one. 5 more years and a left leaning opposition with a leader that cannot be damaged might see the Tories dumped out of power at the next election.