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Interesting articles below :
It appears Spain gave up the vacine in 1981 and in Ital in 1985 we went on longer up to 2005 I believe its was replaced by by a targeted program for babies
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...-idUKKBN21K36K
https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ools.education
Can't help but feel this shouldn't be the final paragraph. Perhaps a bit earlier?
Scientists say it will take several months to get results from trials testing the BCG vaccine to fight COVID-19. In the meantime, people should not rush to get it because it has not been widely tested in adults and might be harmful. Also, a run on the BCG vaccine to fight COVID-19 might cause shortages for children who need it to prevent TB.
The projection now is we will have more deaths than Spain and Italy anyway.
I never had a bcg.
I think we have to hope that modelling isn't accurate because that would be devestatingQuote:
Originally Posted by insider
I agreeQuote:
Originally Posted by Croesy Blue
It's not accurate at all. Our trajectory is almost exactly the same curve but we have fewer deaths due to lower population.Quote:
Originally Posted by Croesy Blue
Lower population than who?Quote:
Originally Posted by Welshcake.
It is irresponsible reporting. Most of these treatments are nothing more than trials, they provide false hope and, as we saw in America, people have died from taking the news as factual.Quote:
Originally Posted by lardy
It is not accurate because they have put in the wrong parameters. The range (worst case and best case) is also pretty large for a model.Quote:
Originally Posted by Croesy Blue
Sorry I've just checked this and I'm completely ignorant.Quote:
Originally Posted by Croesy Blue
Our trajectory may end up being the same. The fact it looks the same at the moment is because their projections are based on the outcomes in Spain and Italy. That's why the model is flawed, in my opinion. That's not to say it could be absolutely spot on, but I think that would be more of a lucky guess than an educated model.Quote:
Originally Posted by Welshcake.
What parameters have they used and what should they have used?Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
Quote:
Originally Posted by insider
i seem to remember that the bcg was the one that left a small scar on your arm when it was given
I think that's the one yeah, can't remember what it was for though.Quote:
Originally Posted by poc
Edit - TB
BCG inoculations are still given routinely in the UK to children born of Asian or mixed race parents
Normally at around 4-6 months old
I remember the BCG as the one out of the occasional injections we were given in school that was thought of as the most frightening - there were a lot of really scared kids, including myself, on the morning we were given it, but, in the event, it didn't seem too bad at all.
That projection is covered in more detail in this piece;-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts
which includes a chart showing that the deaths per day figure will climb over the next week or so to peak at over 2,900 in nine days time, but if you look at it closely, you'll see that the figure was supposed to go past the 1,000 per day mark on Sunday and should have been within the 1.2/1/3 k range on Monday and yesterday - the reported figures were 621 on Sunday, 439 on Monday and 786 yesterday, so,on three days when it was projected that around 3,500 people would die, 1846 did, that's around 53% of the predicted figure.
The main one that they mention on there are ICU beds. It isn't taking into consideration the increase in ICU beds as far as I can see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Croesy Blue
True, and small changes in the model will have huge implications in later projections. There's lots of models, I'm wondering why they chose to go with this one.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I daresay because 66,000 UK deaths, a figure that was nearly three and a half times higher than in any other European country, does grab your attention at a time when most of the projections I've seen lately have been saying something like 20,000 or lower.Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
Apparently it was an average of different models.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
The number of deaths reported today in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is over 900 which is, by some way, the worst yet and certainly no cause for celebration, but it's also in the region of four to five hundred down on the figure projected by the model in the links posted elsewhere in this thread.
This was the daisy chain vaccination wasn't it?, I remember having thisQuote:
Originally Posted by life on mars
that was a different one again i thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by Nelsonca61
I thought that, a 6 tiny needle injection done on your upper arm. Everyone used to say if it did a certain thing, swelled or changed colour or something, you'd have to have a different one with a "huge" needle but of course no one ever did lolQuote:
Originally Posted by poc
Because it came out yesterday, I posted about it in the main thread and spotted the same issue (ICU bed estimates).Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
As for judging that model by our daily figures, what we see are registered deaths with family consent who were hospitalised at the time of death. There could be a time lag and we may not be seeing anything like accurate numbers for total deaths.
The ONS report is going to be next to useless because we werent/aren't testing in care homes. There was a sharp increase in overall deaths recorded for the week ending 27th march. The ONS only attributed 20/~500 of these to covid because their death certificate said covid was the cause of death. The actual number caused by covid but undiagnosed could be way higher and really it is pretty impossible to know (because we arent testing widely).
That was it I think. you had the "print" on your lower arm then you had to have the BCG if it didn't swell. Everyone in my school had it.Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Was always a fear of it being a huge needle because of that weird mark it left on your arm.
938 deaths in UK today highest so far
Higher than Italy at its peak.
I think we are 2 weeks behind them.
According to WIKI there's no much in it , our population is slightly higher than Italy ,France and Spain:Quote:
Originally Posted by Welshcake.
1 Russia 145,934,462
2 Germany 83,783,942
3 United Kingdom 67,886,011
4 France 65,273,511
5 Italy 60,461,826
6 Spain 46,754,778
that was the booster , you had one injection and depending on how it /you reacted you either had a booster or didn't , whcih was the round one like a daisy in your upper armQuote:
Originally Posted by poc
I had the daisy one in the lower arm. That is the Heaf test (NOT a vaccine), it determined whether or not you had been exposed to the TB infection. If you hadn't been exposed, you needed the vaccine. If you had been exposed, you were immune and didn't require a vaccine.Quote:
Originally Posted by life on mars
Yes the round one was the one eveybody had, that was the HEAF test I think, the other one was the booster. I had the full injection when I was 17. The most painful injerction i ever had for length of time it took to werar of was TABT. your arm would swell and you'd ache for days.Quote:
Originally Posted by CCFCC3PO
We used to have all sorts shoved into us in the 1950s.BCG was probably one of them.
This vaccine was first used in1921.Yet 1000s died from TB
It left a nasty and long-lasting scab as I recall. I think I got mine in 1978.Quote:
Originally Posted by Croesy Blue
Yes I got mine in 1999 and still have the scar.Quote:
Originally Posted by NYCBlue
Do you remember it being painful for a long time? My memory of it is that it took ages to heal. Like weeks and weeks. And it being really tender. Of course, everyone at school kept whacking each other on the arm.Quote:
Originally Posted by Croesy Blue
I see that model which was predicting 66,000 UK deaths a few days ago has now downgraded its figure to nearly 37,500 with a projected peak of 1,674 next Friday - that still seems high to me, but possible (their forecast for yesterday was 300 plus above the figure given in the Government briefing).
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
The Italian Premier has announced on live Tv that they will remain in lockdown until 3rd May - the only concession are stores that sell goods for children.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
The previous lockdown was suggested for Tuesday of next week the 14th April - so now they’ve got another 3 weeks to endure.
I can see ours going on until the end of May.
Also remember that there is no way all deaths caused by it are actually being recorded, this model will likely be assuming that everybody who gets it badly goes to hospital.Quote:
Originally Posted by the other bob wilson
I find the longer term projections curious, no deaths from June onwards, I can't work out if that is modeled with social distancing still in place or 'business as usual'.
Edit/ Useful info in the FAQs
Quote:
When can social distancing measures be relaxed?
Our model assumes social distancing stays in place until the pandemic, in its current phase, reaches the point when deaths are less than 0.3 per million people. Based on our latest projections, we expect social distancing measures to be in place through the end of May.
The timeline could change based on what data show about the trajectory of the pandemic. In the meantime, we are working to forecast what would happen if social distancing measures are lifted before the pandemic is under control, and we will share these projections as soon as our work is complete.
Our forecasts of zero deaths in July and August assume that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country. These measures may include mass screening, contact tracing, testing of all individuals entering the country, and quarantine of people who test positive. Details on what these strategies need to be will be analyzed in future editions of the forecasts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric Cartman
Think they expect a 2nd peak in June probably after restrictions are relaxed again, I guess the nhs will be better placed to cope then and lots might have had it by then mildly anyway. Whatever the general working population under 50 will be cracking on by then anyway....