Oh well interest rates up to 5% - a 0.5% jump this time!

Oh well I did say, and I have no idea why commentators in the media expected another small rise of 0.25%. Interest rates are still below the rate of inflation meaning interest rate policy is still too loose, and I predicted that rates will need to be more aggressive and get to a minimum of 5.5-6% before we will see things working. Why many experts thought 4-5% was adequate for this year is quite beyond me. Well here we are - an aggressive 0.5% rise to 5%. Still not aggressive enough to fix the problem in my book, but at least they recognised that 0.25% would have the effect of peeing in the Atlantic.

That was before we saw the higher than expected inflation numbers this week, staying around 8.5% mark. If this inflation number does not drop we may need to see 6.5-8% interest rates over the next twelve months until it works and inflation drops to 2-3%. Given that mortgage rates are driven off swap rates (1-2% spread) and swap rates of interest rates, I think 2-3 year fixed rate mortgages could be 7-9% by year end unless the inflation rate drops.

In the 1990s Norman Lamont was insensitive, but quite correct to say that “If it isn’t hurting it isn’t working”. An awful choice of words, but it proved to be prescient. Until that inflation rate drops below the interest rate ls, or start to come down quick enough, interest rates will keep going north.

The IMF, Treasury, central banks and so called experts have got this wrong all the way. It shows how poor they are. Get a PhD out of academia and straight into an institution. No markets experience at all, or working with money. Just old bunk textbooks that are past their sell by date. In the City of London the truth is that traders and hedge funds have skin in the game and money on the line. They can’t afford to mix social policy and politics with economics and the subjects are best kept apart, or they will get their trading and investments wrong and lose money. The academic economists in institutions such as the OECD, IMF and Treasury mix it with social policy concerns and politics - they can bark off as much as they want an produce reams and reams of “papers” and “publications” that most traders see as free toilet paper. Only the economists employed by hedge funds and investment banks have papers read by traders, and even then they are often treated with an air of scepticism. If academics get forecasts wrong who cares? Jobs are protected and they often move into politics like Rachel Reeves. Get it wrong in a bank, a trading floor or a hedge fund and you get sacked or moved on. No room for error. The media is also all over the place in its commentary and don’t seem to have the practical knowledge nor tools to make sense of what is happening.

As I have highlighted in the threads below the stock market and cyclical industries such as construction, residential and commercial real estate, chemicals sector and estate agents stocks would take a hit. Today it proved to be the case again, looking at the sector charts for the FTSE. Unfortunately, more pain to come.

There seems to be one person that stands out to me that understands what is going on, and I took the hint from her speech this week. She has warned for ages and she has been spot on. Catherine Mann. Old school. Grey hairs. Like Eddie George and Mervyn King - a proper central banker. She isn’t one of these modern plebs who thinks an econometric spreadsheet holds the answers. She goes on history and a monetarist and markets understanding of what was required. Follow her words and she will be a good forecasts as to what is happening. Disciplined, clever and tough character. Watch her words closely as her words have been the best predictor of what the Monetary Policy Committee will do in the last twelve months.

This pain will continue for another 6-18 months as far as I can see. Stick that prediction on a bookmark. Tinhats on please. As they say in boxing, “Gloves up, and protect yourself at all times”.


https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...t-8-7-per-cent

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...g-of-economics

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...e-naffed/page3

I can unfortunately see some big unemployment rises over the next year in order tame inflation.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

Oh well I did say, and I have no idea why commentators in the media expected another small rise of 0.25%. Interest rates are still below the rate of inflation meaning interest rate policy is still too loose, and I predicted that rates will need to be more aggressive and get to a minimum of 5.5-6% before we will see things working. Why many experts thought 4-5% was adequate for this year is quite beyond me. Well here we are - an aggressive 0.5% rise to 5%. Still not aggressive enough to fix the problem in my book, but at least they recognised that 0.25% would have the effect of peeing in the Atlantic.

That was before we saw the higher than expected inflation numbers this week, staying around 8.5% mark. If this inflation number does not drop we may need to see 6.5-8% interest rates over the next twelve months until it works and inflation drops to 2-3%. Given that mortgage rates are driven off swap rates (1-2% spread) and swap rates of interest rates, I think 2-3 year fixed rate mortgages could be 7-9% by year end unless the inflation rate drops.

In the 1990s Norman Lamont was insensitive, but quite correct to say that “If it isn’t hurting it isn’t working”. An awful choice of words, but it proved to be prescient. Until that inflation rate drops below the interest rate ls, or start to come down quick enough, interest rates will keep going north.

The IMF, Treasury, central banks and so called experts have got this wrong all the way. It shows how poor they are. Get a PhD out of academia and straight into an institution. No markets experience at all, or working with money. Just old bunk textbooks that are past their sell by date. In the City of London the truth is that traders and hedge funds have skin in the game and money on the line. They can’t afford to mix social policy and politics with economics and the subjects are best kept apart, or they will get their trading and investments wrong and lose money. The academic economists in institutions such as the OECD, IMF and Treasury mix it with social policy concerns and politics - they can bark off as much as they want an produce reams and reams of “papers” and “publications” that most traders see as free toilet paper. Only the economists employed by hedge funds and investment banks have papers read by traders, and even then they are often treated with an air of scepticism. If academics get forecasts wrong who cares? Jobs are protected and they often move into politics like Rachel Reeves. Get it wrong in a bank, a trading floor or a hedge fund and you get sacked or moved on. No room for error. The media is also all over the place in its commentary and don’t seem to have the practical knowledge nor tools to make sense of what is happening.

As I have highlighted in the threads below the stock market and cyclical industries such as construction, residential and commercial real estate, chemicals sector and estate agents stocks would take a hit. Today it proved to be the case again, looking at the sector charts for the FTSE. Unfortunately, more pain to come.

There seems to be one person that stands out to me that understands what is going on, and I took the hint from her speech this week. She has warned for ages and she has been spot on. Catherine Mann. Old school. Grey hairs. Like Eddie George and Mervyn King - a proper central banker. She isn’t one of these modern plebs who thinks an econometric spreadsheet holds the answers. She goes on history and a monetarist and markets understanding of what was required. Follow her words and she will be a good forecasts as to what is happening. Disciplined, clever and tough character. Watch her words closely as her words have been the best predictor of what the Monetary Policy Committee will do in the last twelve months.

This pain will continue for another 6-18 months as far as I can see. Stick that prediction on a bookmark. Tinhats on please. As they say in boxing, “Gloves up, and protect yourself at all times”.


https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...t-8-7-per-cent

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...g-of-economics

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...e-naffed/page3

---

Supermarkets and energy companies were buying on forward pricing so the reduction in energy and food isn't showing yet but it will, inflation is definitely sticky compared to the rest of the World.

Interest rate rises don't slow economies as much as they used to because it only affects a proportion of the population, but it is horrendous for them, they'll have to come up with some new ideas.

Times are tough here, but so bad in the US and even Europe, inflation is already lower.

The Nasdaq has been flying, and European markets have had a fairly good year.

that Tory bellend John Redwood was just on the radio talking about it , was saying that the inflation has been blamed on the Ukraine war but really the main driver was far too much quantative easing following COVID. countries that didn't do as much back then are seeing much lower inflation now.

Spot on. Once we hit a recession, US unemployment never stays below 5%. That is a statistic from 60 years of history. You may argue an exception for CoVid but if you include furloughed people, which what happens in a natural recession, the figure would have exceeded 5% in the UK and US too.

There will be no furlough this time nor bank bailouts. We will certainly see a doubling of unemployment above 5%. Of that I have zero doubt.

To a degree he is correct. The effect of QE was several:

1. Inflated prices of bonds, stocks, real estate (commercial and residential, Private Equity and Venture Capital. This gave the illusion of wealth. Unless sold, it was market rise not a real profit

2. Bonds cheapened the credit markets. Made credit cheap so all the above sectors borrowed to the hilt

3. Consumers were duped into think these were normal interest rates at 0.5%-2%. They were temporary, manipulated and was not sustainable. The average UK interest rate in history is 5%.

But now asset prices must reduce (killing confidence) and debt loads at government and commercial levels are huge. Debts will mature / rollover at prices 5-10 times higher. This is the lag effect most are missing. What we are seeing for residential mortgages in terms of pain will be chicken feed compared to business.

The US are ahead of us in the interest rate cycle so the lag effects are just coming through. Google what is happening to
commerciap real estate in San Francisco and New York. San Francisco is a proper mess. It is just kicking off in London. London starts, the rest of UK cities will follow.

That isn’t where the Monetary Policy Committee is fixated my
friend. Excerpt from today’s Financial Times…


In the minutes of the MPC meeting, the seven members who voted for the large increase pointed in particular to inflation data and labour market figures over the past six weeks, which had been significantly worse than they had predicted in early May.

Without updating those forecasts, the MPC minutes said annual private sector regular pay growth of 7.6 per cent in the three months to April was 0.5 percentage points higher than they had expected. Services inflation of 7.4 per cent in May was also half a percentage point higher than the bank’s models had predicted.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

To a degree he is correct. The effect of QE was several:

1. Inflated prices of bonds, stocks, real estate (commercial and residential, Private Equity and Venture Capital. This gave the illusion of wealth. Unless sold, it was market rise not a real profit

2. Bonds cheapened the credit markets. Made credit cheap so all the above sectors borrowed to the hilt

3. Consumers were duped into think these were normal interest rates at 0.5%-2%. They were temporary, manipulated and was not sustainable. The average UK interest rate in history is 5%.

But now asset prices must reduce (killing confidence) and debt loads at government and commercial levels are huge. Debts will mature / rollover at prices 5-10 times higher. This is the lag effect most are missing. What we are seeing for residential mortgages in terms of pain will be chicken feed compared to business.

The US are ahead of us in the interest rate cycle so the lag effects are just coming through. Google what is happening to
commerciap real estate in San Francisco and New York. San Francisco is a proper mess. It is just kicking off in London. London starts, the rest of UK cities will follow.

---

That should slow residential house prices now, people will stick a bit longer and see what happens, we've been here before we'll be here again, it's not bad for potential first-time buyers that aren't renting if values drop a bit, if they time it right they could do OK.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

That isn’t where the Monetary Policy Committee is fixated my
friend. Excerpt from today’s Financial Times…


In the minutes of the MPC meeting, the seven members who voted for the large increase pointed in particular to inflation data and labour market figures over the past six weeks, which had been significantly worse than they had predicted in early May.

Without updating those forecasts, the MPC minutes said annual private sector regular pay growth of 7.6 per cent in the three months to April was 0.5 percentage points higher than they had expected. Services inflation of 7.4 per cent in May was also half a percentage point higher than the bank’s models had predicted.

---

Unemployment will go up with people unretiring too, things have changed a lot for some of those late fifties and early sixties retirees, in the last two years.

Traditionally inflation is high because the average person is spending a lot on goods and services. This time it's due to Brexit, the war in ukraine, the pandemic and greed from many companies earning record profits. Increasing interest rates will not do a thing to combat it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doucas

Traditionally inflation is high because the average person is spending a lot on goods and services. This time it's due to Brexit, the war in ukraine, the pandemic and greed from many companies earning record profits. Increasing interest rates will not do a thing to combat it.

---

Yep, Brexit has certainly driven inflation here in the US…

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

Yep, Brexit has certainly driven inflation here in the US…

---

So does Brexit not make it more expensive to import goods into the UK?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

Spot on. Once we hit a recession, US unemployment never stays below 5%. That is a statistic from 60 years of history. You may argue an exception for CoVid but if you include furloughed people, which what happens in a natural recession, the figure would have exceeded 5% in the UK and US too.

There will be no furlough this time nor bank bailouts. We will certainly see a doubling of unemployment above 5%. Of that I have zero doubt.

---

I wonder if the rate of new billionaires in the UK will decline?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doucas

So does Brexit not make it more expensive to import goods into the UK?

---

I agree that Brexit has made inflation in the UK worse than it would have been but there is global inflation and probably recession… that hasn’t been caused by Brexit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

I agree that Brexit has made inflation in the UK worse than it would have been but there is global inflation and probably recession… that hasn’t been caused by Brexit.

---

Did I say brexit was the sole cause?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doucas

Did I say brexit was the sole cause?

---

No you didn’t you quite correctly stated that The Pandemic and The War are factors.

My point is that I don’t believe that Brexit is a driver of Global inflation even if it is making things worse than it is for some but not all EU countries.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Wash DC Blue

No you didn’t you quite correctly stated that The Pandemic and The War are factors.

My point is that I don’t believe that Brexit is a driver of Global inflation even if it is making things worse than it is for some but not all EU countries.

---

there isn't global inflation, inflation in China is 0.2%

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doucas

Did I say brexit was the sole cause?

---

You implied it as it fits your agenda.

Brexit is a minor contributor to the grand scale of things, it's the global economy settling after the Covid disruption mainly then added to by the War in Ukraine and the energy crisis.

Multiple other factors like profiteering and wage inflation have also added to a perfect storm, I think you are right about interest rate increase not being enough to cool things down on their own, but at least people have woken up to the issue now, which should create a bit of fear and lead to a slight reduction in spending on luxuries for some.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rjk

there isn't global inflation, inflation in China is 0.2%

---

True.
Could China be on the verge of deflation?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rjk

there isn't global inflation, inflation in China is 0.2%

---

You don't single out one odd Country when you talk about the global economies.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

You implied it as it fits your agenda.

---

Oh ok, I'll be careful not to say the truth incase it upsets you from now on.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doucas

Oh ok, I'll be careful not to say the truth incase it upsets you from now on.

---

It's not the truth though is it, you look to blame everything on Brexit.

If Labour hadn't tried to stop it for so long and liaised with the opposition, it would have worked a lot better as we ould have been able to play hard ball and fight for a fairer deal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

You don't single out one odd Country when you talk about the global economies.

---

just repeating what John Redwood was saying this morning, he said basically the only countries struggling with inflation at the moment are ones who went too far with QE in the aftermath of covid. it was blamed on Ukraine, but it largely isn't anything to do with that

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

It's not the truth though is it, you look to blame everything on Brexit.

If Labour hadn't tried to stop it for so long and liaised with the opposition, it would have worked a lot better as we ould have been able to play hard ball and fight for a fairer deal.

---

what utter shit, what meaningful opposition did labour put up to Brexit? even if they had the Tories have a massive majority.
do you actually believe this nonsense?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

It's not the truth though is it, you look to blame everything on Brexit.

If Labour hadn't tried to stop it for so long and liaised with the opposition, it would have worked a lot better as we ould have been able to play hard ball and fight for a fairer deal.

---

It is true though, brexit has contributed to inflation in the UK.

Oh right, the failure of brexit is the fault of the party who aren't in power.

I give you a gold medal for this incredible feat of mental gymnastics.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

It's not the truth though is it, you look to blame everything on Brexit.

If Labour hadn't tried to stop it for so long and liaised with the opposition, it would have worked a lot better.

---

Quite right. Simply screaming "Brexit" and "supply side / doesn't help" at everyone is like a wolf howling in all directions in the dark. Rent-a-vent. That is all it is.

Even reading the FT commentaries and sensible papers like The Times, it seems many idiots believe these "single cause" effects. Don't get me started on the highly mockable nonsense you see on the BBC, Guardian and Independent comments sections. Far, far worse. It is just people regurgitating GCSE level understandings of the world, and sometimes lower than that. It is precisely what I was saying about monkeys mixing politics with economics, or whinging about social policy, rather than staying focused on a cold headed analysis.

If you go into an economic debate with your political head on, you will never understand it and never solve it. Which is precisely why when Jeremy Hunt, Rachel Reeves, Kwasi Kwarteng, Ed Davey, that Green Party bird or Jeremy Corbyn start proffering their views, I urge everyone to turn the television off or change the channel. It is garbage. Political garbage. Not economics. Change the channel and choose Dora The Explorer. Far more productive use of time and you'll probably learn more. The TV clowns are on TV for politics and to get ratings. They are no role model and they talk through their rusty sheriff's badge most of the time.

If you genuinely want to know what is happening pick off the top economists. It is not a fun subject. It is dry. It is deep. It is heavy, and technical. It cannot be understood by a Comments section nor a Twitter line. There are several causes of inflation this time around (four in fact), and some of those four items have caused a "second round effect" as they have been left untreated. To shout "Brexit" is just retarded, in the grand scheme of a heavy subject.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

Quite right. Simply screaming "Brexit" and "supply side / doesn't help" at everyone is like a wolf howling in all directions in the dark. Rent-a-vent. That is all it is.

Even reading the FT commentaries and sensible papers like The Times, it seems many idiots believe these "single cause" effects. Don't get me started on the highly mockable nonsense you see on the BBC, Guardian and Independent comments sections. Far, far worse. It is just people regurgitating GCSE level understandings of the world, and sometimes lower than that. It is precisely what I was saying about monkeys mixing politics with economics, or whinging about social policy, rather than staying focused on a cold headed analysis.

If you go into an economic debate with your political head on, you will never understand it and never solve it. Which is precisely why when Jeremy Hunt, Rachel Reeves, Kwasi Kwarteng, Ed Davey, that Green Party bird or Jeremy Corbyn start proffering their views, I urge everyone to turn the television off or change the channel. It is garbage. Political garbage. Not economics. Change the channel and choose Dora The Explorer. Far more productive use of time and you'll probably learn more. The TV clowns are on TV for politics and to get ratings. They are no role model and they talk through their rusty sheriff's badge most of the time.

If you genuinely want to know what is happening pick off the top economists. It is not a fun subject. It is dry. It is deep. It is heavy, and technical. It cannot be understood by a Comments section nor a Twitter line. There are several causes of inflation this time around (four in fact), and some of those four items have caused a "second round effect" as they have been left untreated. To shout "Brexit" is just retarded, in the grand scheme of a heavy subject.

---

By that logic I can't point out the war in the Ukraine, the pandemic or corporate greed because identifying the causes of a problem doesn't help apparently. Why are people like you repeating that I only said it was brexit, I have not said this but you're appearing very defensive, insecure about your vote perhaps?

Ok cold hearted analysis from the London School of Economics (or are they too woke??) - https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit18.pdf

This is just food costs alone nevermind other things we import from cars to materials.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rjk

what utter shit, what meaningful opposition did labour put up to Brexit? even if they had the Tories have a massive majority.
do you actually believe this nonsense?

---

Labour all voted against and a couple of knobs like Dom Grieve caused the problems related to Brexit by delaying it and watering it down. If it hadn't been for them you wouldn't have had Boris the Brexit slayer!

I am not defensive. I outline my thoughts in a very clear way and super-secure in them.

The London School of Economics is a hole for Keynesian economists. They use mathematical models that are 60 years out of date. Mocked by people in the City, in the late 1990s it became a breeding ground for the Labour and Liberal party, and some in the Conservative party. It is now more focused on promoting high debt / spending in mature economies and banging on about Brexit. You have proven my point by leading me to an LSE article. I have seen enough of them, and no city trader with money on the line reads them. It is this cabal of political-economists that are hired by the incompetent OECD, IMF, and UK Treasury. It is free toilet paper my friend. You are looking in the wrong place, but at least you confirmed my suspicions of where your ideas come from.

If you want to see sound economics, free of political thinking, you to Bayes Business School or London Business School. They feed the hedge fund and investment bank economists, who have a modern understanding of the economy.

The Brexiteers blaming the shambles theyve caused the country on the opposition is comedy gold.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

Quite right. Simply screaming "Brexit" and "supply side / doesn't help" at everyone is like a wolf howling in all directions in the dark. Rent-a-vent. That is all it is.

Even reading the FT commentaries and sensible papers like The Times, it seems many idiots believe these "single cause" effects. Don't get me started on the highly mockable nonsense you see on the BBC, Guardian and Independent comments sections. Far, far worse. It is just people regurgitating GCSE level understandings of the world, and sometimes lower than that. It is precisely what I was saying about monkeys mixing politics with economics, or whinging about social policy, rather than staying focused on a cold headed analysis.

If you go into an economic debate with your political head on, you will never understand it and never solve it. Which is precisely why when Jeremy Hunt, Rachel Reeves, Kwasi Kwarteng, Ed Davey, that Green Party bird or Jeremy Corbyn start proffering their views, I urge everyone to turn the television off or change the channel. It is garbage. Political garbage. Not economics. Change the channel and choose Dora The Explorer. Far more productive use of time and you'll probably learn more. The TV clowns are on TV for politics and to get ratings. They are no role model and they talk through their rusty sheriff's badge most of the time.

If you genuinely want to know what is happening pick off the top economists. It is not a fun subject. It is dry. It is deep. It is heavy, and technical. It cannot be understood by a Comments section nor a Twitter line. There are several causes of inflation this time around (four in fact), and some of those four items have caused a "second round effect" as they have been left untreated. To shout "Brexit" is just retarded, in the grand scheme of a heavy subject.

---

Exactly about Brexit, nothing to do with this!

Covid, Furlough, Quantitative easing, Global supply chains, Global energy costs, War in Ukraine, forward pricing, and wage inflation are the main drivers and not easy to solve with just interest rate increases because it doesn't affect the whole population, and it's toughest on the young and the poor.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

I am not defensive. I outline my thoughts in a very clear way and super-secure in them.

The London School of Economics is a hole for Keynesian economists. They use mathematical models that are 60 years out of date. Mocked by people in the City, in the late 1990s it became a breeding ground for the Labour and Liberal party, and some in the Conservative party. It is now more focused on promoting high debt / spending in mature economies and banging on about Brexit. You have proven my point by leading me to an LSE article. I have seen enough of them, and no city trader with money on the line reads them. It is this cabal of political-economists that are hired by the incompetent OECD, IMF, and UK Treasury. It is free toilet paper my friend. You are looking in the wrong place, but at least you confirmed my suspicions of where your ideas come from.

If you want to see sound economics, free of political thinking, you to Bayes Business School or London Business School. They feed the hedge fund and investment bank economists, who have a modern understanding of the economy.

---

Has brexit made it more expensive to import goods? Yes or no.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hilts

The Brexiteers blaming the shambles theyve caused the country on the opposition is comedy gold.

---

'If only they believed enough'

It would be funny if it wasn't so predictable. They can never take responsibility.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

Exactly about Brexit, nothing to do with this!

Covid, Furlough, Quantitative easing, Global supply chains, Global energy costs, War in Ukraine, forward pricing, and wage inflation are the main drivers and not easy to solve with just interest rate increases because it doesn't affect the whole population, and it's toughest on the young and the poor.

---

I give up. Global supply chains are a major factor according to you but the most important supply chain in the UK possibly ever, nah that's peanuts.

Utter joke.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

Exactly about Brexit, nothing to do with this!

Covid, Furlough, Quantitative easing, Global supply chains, Global energy costs, War in Ukraine, forward pricing, and wage inflation are the main drivers and not easy to solve with just interest rate increases because it doesn't affect the whole population, and it's toughest on the young and the poor.

---

Brexit is a partial factor, but if it were the only factor then we would not have seen inflation in the rest of EU and US. So precisely that. The above factors are the combination we are dealing with.

On Global supply chains there are multiple subcauses:

1. Panama canal water levels low, slowing ships through a major Asia > US / Europe / UK transport route, and therefore increasing costs and hitting supply speeds. Some ships have to around Chile and Argentina, creating a massive increase in fuel costs, reflected in final prices

2. Iranian tanker hijacked / stuck in Suez for 18 months ago caused a knock-on impact of Asian trade coming via Suez to the UK / EU. Took twelve months to feed through. Caused a spike in items from China / Asia

3. China lockdown smashing the semiconductor supply chain, hitting all key components of electrical goods from DJ equipment, sound systems, stereos, fridges, freezers and also automobile components. Simply re-opening China wouldn't fix it - it all had to catch up

But more to come. 90% of semi-conductor chips are made in Taiwan via the company called TSMC. In order to sidestep a threat of a China invasion, semiconductor production is being re-shored to the US and to Japan (although that is risky). The labour costs there are Western standard, although it makes it safer from attack. So inflation from that will final prices in big way and that is a long term thing, not a temporary fix.

So its complex. But those saying it's just Brexit are just borderline neanderthals. It plays a fraction of the role in inflation, and the list you supplied covers the global issues causing it. Let the wolves howl in the dark and continue their rent-a-vent.

Pea brains cannot grow, and politically charged debates will never get it. Thank goodness they don't operate on a trading floor. They don't have the skills, they would lose a fortune, and they be sacked in record time. You just cannot think and operate in that biased manner. No wonder so many people's decision making processes in life and barely functional. It is now becoming clearer to me.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

Brexit is a partial factor, but if it were the only factor then we would not have seen inflation in the rest of EU and US.

---

Literally nobody is saying this, who are you arguing against?!

I've found this repeatedly on this forum partiularly from those on the right, they make up what someone has said and argue against that instead of the actual points made.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Doucas

Literally nobody is saying this, who are you arguing against?!

I've found this repeatedly on this forum partiularly from those on the right, they make up what someone has said and argue against that instead of the actual points made.

---

There you go again. Left / Right. Brexit / Remain. You will never understand economics because every comment you make is politically charged. You cannot detach yourself into technical matters, without conflating it with politics.

Face it. You have never put your money on the line with economic calls. You have never worked such an environment, and you have not practically applied economics.

I have done all three, so I have something rock solid to base it on. So sorry pal, I take no lectures from you. If you want to learn I am happy to share and educate, but it's crystal clear to me that it will not be the other way around. That much is obvious.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

It's not the truth though is it, you look to blame everything on Brexit.

If Labour hadn't tried to stop it for so long and liaised with the opposition, it would have worked a lot better as we ould have been able to play hard ball and fight for a fairer deal.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue

Labour all voted against and a couple of knobs like Dom Grieve caused the problems related to Brexit by delaying it and watering it down. If it hadn't been for them you wouldn't have had Boris the Brexit slayer!

---

Boris 'Get Brexit Done' Johnson had an 80 seat majority at the 2019 election and you still come out with this pathetic whinge about the opposition and EU doing their jobs - not acting like brain-dead Tory backbenchers!

You voted Tory. You voted Brexit. Own your own shit show.

You are right that Brexit isn't the only factor in inflation sticking so high. No one one here said it was. But it is a significant factor.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

There you go again. Left / Right. Brexit / Remain. You will never understand economics because every comment you make is politically charged. You cannot detach yourself into technical matters, without conflating it with politics.

Face it. You have never put your money on the line with economic calls. You have never worked such an environment, and you have not practically applied economics.

I have done all three, so I have something rock solid to base it on. So sorry pal, I take no lectures from you. If you want to learn I am happy to share and educate, but it's crystal clear to me that it will not be the other way around. That much is obvious.

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Pahahaha rattled.

Notice how again you've ignored what I've said and gone on some rant about nothing really.

Google AMC stock from 2021, I rode that wave from about $4 with almost every penny I had and cashed out near the top and made a very significant amount of money so don't talk to me about never putting my money on the line.

So this time actually answer my question, who are you arguing against because literally nobody has said brexit is the only cause of inflation.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

Brexit is a partial factor, but if it were the only factor then we would not have seen inflation in the rest of EU and US. So precisely that. The above factors are the combination we are dealing with.

On Global supply chains there are multiple subcauses:

1. Panama canal water levels low, slowing ships through a major Asia > US / Europe / UK transport route, and therefore increasing costs and hitting supply speeds. Some ships have to around Chile and Argentina, creating a massive increase in fuel costs, reflected in final prices

2. Iranian tanker hijacked / stuck in Suez for 18 months ago caused a knock-on impact of Asian trade coming via Suez to the UK / EU. Took twelve months to feed through. Caused a spike in items from China / Asia

3. China lockdown smashing the semiconductor supply chain, hitting all key components of electrical goods from DJ equipment, sound systems, stereos, fridges, freezers and also automobile components. Simply re-opening China wouldn't fix it - it all had to catch up

But more to come. 90% of semi-conductor chips are made in Taiwan via the company called TSMC. In order to sidestep a threat of a China invasion, semiconductor production is being re-shored to the US and to Japan (although that is risky). The labour costs there are Western standard, although it makes it safer from attack. So inflation from that will final prices in big way and that is a long term thing, not a temporary fix.

So its complex. But those saying it's just Brexit are just borderline neanderthals. It plays a fraction of the role in inflation, and the list you supplied covers the global issues causing it. Let the wolves howl in the dark and continue their rent-a-vent.

Pea brains cannot grow, and politically charged debates will never get it. Thank goodness they don't operate on a trading floor. They don't have the skills, they would lose a fortune, and they be sacked in record time. You just cannot think and operate in that biased manner. No wonder so many people's decision making processes in life and barely functional. It is now becoming clearer to me.

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bang on the money regarding the semi con industry but think we will see a glut of manufacturing chip plants not just in USA but in Europe too . Intel although a USA company just announced a huge investment in Germany

https://english.elpais.com/economy-a...nvestment.html

surprised to see this thread still on the football message board !