Spot on. Once we hit a recession, US unemployment never stays below 5%. That is a statistic from 60 years of history. You may argue an exception for CoVid but if you include furloughed people, which what happens in a natural recession, the figure would have exceeded 5% in the UK and US too.

There will be no furlough this time nor bank bailouts. We will certainly see a doubling of unemployment above 5%. Of that I have zero doubt.