Where do people think we will pick up the 14 points estimated as required to ensure safety, from our remaining games?
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Where do people think we will pick up the 14 points estimated as required to ensure safety, from our remaining games?
We won't need 50 points to stay up, 45 would probably be enough the way the bottom 3 are playing
Luton, Stoke and Oxford at home plus another at home Wednesday maybe? A few heroic draws would help
Bookies have us finishing one place off relegation. Think it's going to be squeaky bum time till the end of the season.
The highest placed team we’ve beaten in the current table is Watford who are ninth. I think we’ll beat one of the current top eight before the end of the season, but, by the same token, I can’t see us beating all of Luton, Stoke and Oxford at home. I think we’ll. struggle to reach fifty points, but while it looked like you may need that many to survive a month ago, only Plymouth of the bottom three have won since then, so I think a point a game for us from here will probably be enough.
Using Plymouth, currently in the last relegation position, as an example…
We are currently 6 points ahead of them with a much better goal difference so, unless they pull that back, it effectively means they will have to get 7 more points than us by the end of the season.
To put that in perspective, if we were to draw every one our remaining games, Plymouth would have to get 19 points to go above us.
It could happen, but would be a big ask of a team to suddenly pick up an average of 1.5 points a game, when over the season they haven’t even managed an averarge of 1 point per game.
I am not saying 12 more points will be enough, less might be required, but I feel it is looking a likely safe target to avoid relegation.
Apologies for stating the bleedin' obvious but having more points than three other teams is the yardstick rather than a points total based on historical statistics.Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
IMO we'll stay up with nowhere near 50 points.
Three teams below us would have to finish the season in near-promotion form to send us down, and that won't happen.
Goals from Robinson, Salech and Davies will get us more than enough points, with assists from Ramsey, Alves, Mannsverk and Robinson, we have a much better team to see out the season.Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Nonsense. We all know football is all about stats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
Did you know that we are the joint best team in the league with 100% win record based on the last one game? :ayatollah:
I know we'll need more than 50 points to make the play-offs!
:thumbup:Quote:
Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue
Isn't it amazing what a single win can do for a team.
If we'd lost on Tuesday, the MB would be in meltdown and doubts start creeping into everything and everyone.
Since the crazy Leeds game, we have looked a pretty decent side given our position in the league but the points gained haven't reflected this.
Still some twists to come no doubt but we have more than enough talent to survive the drop.
From now on, it's about belief in yourself and your teammates mixed with a bit of hard work.
Agreed, and with the two latest acquisitions plus players returning from injury, the squad looks stronger than it has for a very long time. The only thing that is stopping us from playing consistently well is the fear factor.Quote:
Originally Posted by MacAdder
The bottom 3 are all on less than a point a game. Low 40’s might be enough to stay up at this rate.
You're right. As long as we achieve no worse than 3 of the following we'll stay up:Quote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
7 points less than Luton
6 points less than Derby
5 points less than Plymouth
2 points less than Hull
Same points as Stoke.
If we win every game, we can get 72 points so I'm booking my Wembley accommodation tonight
More to the point, does anyone think Plymouth can win 20 points from their last 12 games?Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Doubt it but they are in a bit of form, and have only lost one in the last six and have a good run of winnable games coming up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee
Luton, Derby, and one of Hull, Stoke, Oxford and Plymouth are going down.
Horvath, Fish, Mannsverk, Bagan, Salech, Alves, Ashford, Ramsey, Davies added to what we've had will improve us in the run in.
Oxford are 8 points clear of relegation and 2 ahead of us. They'll be fine.Quote:
Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue
It's natural when teams at the bottom suddenly have a few good results that some will think they'll keep that going. The reason they're down the bottom is that they haven't been able to.Quote:
Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue
In any case, if Plymouth did go on a great run and survived, good luck to them, they'll have earned it. We're in charge of our own destiny, they're in charge of theirs
It wouldn't be the Cardiff city way if one or more of the bottom 3 didn't suddenly pick up a few wins in a short period. Likes of Pompey and Oxford have previously managed it.
It's going to the last couple of matches I think. I'm just hoping we can get an away win or two somewhere improbable as it seems unlikely we will be able to do it all against our rivals.
That's true, I'm just thinking the new manager and players seem to have improved them, but you are right how long can they keep it up?Quote:
Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee
Three points from the last seven games, lost the last two games 2-0 to Portsmouth and WBA?Quote:
Originally Posted by City123
I'm not so sure, they are getting dragged in, and maybe their new manager bounce has worn off?
With the goal difference, Plymouth will need to pick up at least 9 points to reel them inQuote:
Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue
If Oxford average just 0.5 points per game for the rest of the season, Plymouth would need 15 points, half of what they have after 34 games.
It's 3 from 6, and I think it'll be 3 from 3.Quote:
Originally Posted by North Cardiff Blue
it's not points it's 50 million quid
I'd point out I only picked 50 points for safety because its what eric and better judges than I reckoned we needed a few games ago?
What has changed?
Only that the points won by the bottom 3 are pretty low by comparison with most seasons.Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
sure eventually It will be 3 from 3Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro de la Rosa
Makes sense, let's see what happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by City123
Birmingham went down with 51 last season and Peterborough went down with 54 previously.Quote:
Originally Posted by xsnaggle
Not sure there is a number really just need to be more than 3 points clear of 22nd going into last day.
Points required to stay up during the last ten Championship seasons:
2013/14 - 45
2014/15 - 42
2015/16 - 41
2016/17 - 52
2017/18 - 42
2018/19 - 41
2019/20 - 49
2020/21 - 44
2021/22 - 38
2022/23 - 45
2023/24 - 51
Of course, some of those totals were arrived at because clubs had points deducted. Nevertheless, I'll be amazed if 50 or more points are required to stay up this season.
The one x-factor for me is whether Eustace can turn around Derby, but I think the new manager bounce for Plymouth has probably worn off and Luton just look totally broken - also Oxford aren't out of it yet, they are on a crap run. If I had to pull a number out of my arse I'd probably say 45 would leave us feeling somewhat comfortable - that's 3 wins and 4 draws for Plymouth from 12 with their awful GD. It could well be a few less.
Have you thought of applying to do the FA Cup draw?Quote:
Originally Posted by LA Bluebird
Haven't watched it in many years but that's an interesting twist they've gone with, what time do they show it now?Quote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
Well we have had 3 shit away draws this seasonQuote:
Originally Posted by Taunton Blue Genie
Always a worry when a team gets a new manager but I reckon derby were actually over performing under Warne. Their squad is a relegation squad all day long.Quote:
Originally Posted by LA Bluebird
Three points from the last seven games, lost the last two games 2-0 to Portsmouth and WBA?Quote:
Originally Posted by City123
I'm not so sure, they are getting dragged in, and maybe their new manager bounce has worn off?
Now three points from eight games, they are definitely in decline.
I can't see where the need for 50 points comes from.
As a general rule 2 points or more gives auto promotion.
1 point or less relegation.
This season there are 3 strong teams at the top averaging 2 or more points per game.
There are 4 teams averaging under 1 point per game.
This means the teams at the top are taking away more points from the other sides in the league.
At the bottom no one is stranded with the 4 sides averaging less than 1 point, but all have a decent points haul. When the survival level of points rises there are usually 1 or 2 sides stranded with their points probably finding their way to the teams just above ( such as Rotherham on 20 points) with 1 side left being relegated with over 46 points.
From the above 44/45 point s should be safe but would give a scary final day.
Hang on, You obviosly weren't reading this board after Derby's first 5 games or so, Ebou Adams was a huge loss...... I don't know where people get some of this stuff from.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Father Dougal