18. As restrictions are lifted it will be important for messaging to communicate the continued risks from COVID-19 and effective mitigations, including information on how to minimise within household spread. SAGE advises that continuing to provide near real time local information on prevalence would be helpful. Communication targeted to both individuals and organisations will be important.
14. Delaying step 4 by four weeks from 21st June has allowed many more vaccinations to be administered and moved the end of restrictions to a time point close to the school holidays, when transmission is expected to be lower. Although a further delay to step 4 could have some additional positive impact by allowing more people to be vaccinated, the effect of this would be much smaller than the effect of the current delay and it would push the wave further towards the autumn and winter.
15. The peak of the resurgence will however be much lower if the return to pre-pandemic behaviours is gradual, irrespective of legislative decisions (i.e., any changes happen over several months) than if it is rapid, and if more measures to reduce transmission are maintained (high confidence). If the aim is to prevent the NHS being under pressure the priority should be to avoid a very rapid return to pre-pandemic behaviour which could lead to a peak in hospitalisations similar to (or possibly even higher than) previous peaks. The mechanism by which this gradual change to more mixing is achieved is much less important than the fact it is gradual
SAGE 93 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 July 2021
As we move to the next stage of the COVID response, it is essential we change behaviour slowly and steadily.
These papers give some of the data which show why going slowly will reduce the risk to all.
Chris Whitty, July 13th 2021:
https://twitter.com/CMO_England/stat...86547196219394
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