I thought the prediction of 100,000 new cases in a day was pessimistic but seems realistic now.

Latest daily hospitalisation admissions for whole of the UK show 717 on 12th of July which is within 1 of the 8th of October 2020; people in hospital as per 15th of July is between 7th-8th of October 2020; and people on ventilators as per 15th of July comparable to 14th of October 2020.

I know we've weakened the link but it feels likely we end up with something as bad as late October/November 2020 (the same as mid-December 2020 but without same peak) which was bad enough for the firebreak to come in for Wales and multiple regions in England to be placed into Tier 3 restrictions.

On more positive side of things Drakeford suggested Wales could get as many as 85% of adults fully vaccinated by 7th of August and with more than 5% receiving their second jab within most recent 9 days, taking us up to 75% as per 15th of July, that suggested milestone seems possible.