Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[surge]

Boris Johnson warns of "continuing risk" posed by nightclubs as he says from September clubbers will have to be double vaccinated to attend.

By that's 8 weeks away - will surely face questions over wisdom of allowing them to open today?

PM says 3 million of 18-30 age group have yet to take up their vaccine offer. Hope in govt is that nightclub vaccine passport plan will boost take-up.

Chief Scientist Patrick Vallance says that nightclubs can be "super spreader events".
He adds: "I would expect we will continue to see an increase in cases."
Again, it's not even 18 hours since they opened them.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/stat...56810855919620

If you're going to remove legal restrictions then clear messaging to ensure good understanding matters. Can anyone work out the theory behind this one?

[City123]

If you're going to remove legal restrictions then clear messaging to ensure good understanding matters. Can anyone work out the theory behind this one?

Dirty nightclubbing youngsters to be blamed for the next lockdown, a useful tool to deflect blame from his government's repeated failings

[Vindec]

It's interesting to look back just over a year at the thread about Cummings' appearance in front of the media in which he tried to explain away his jaunt to Barnard's Castle and to how those posters who defend the current UK Government responded at the time;-

https://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.ph...minic+cummings

To be fair to someone like Vindec, he was very clear in his opinion that Cummings had to go and that was the impression I got from Elwood as well. There were some others who put their heads above the parapet to offer what seemed to me a somewhat half hearted defence of the man and then there were people like you who, presumably, to use a phrase that appeared in the thread, wanted the whole thing to "blow over".

Strange now then that you and one or two others are adamant that Cummings is a liar and always has been and yet you were unwilling to be so outspoken about him last year when Johnson, and many in his party, were insisting there was nothing wrong in the way he behaved.

Why should this be? Was your silence last year down to the fact that Cummings was on the inside of a Conservative Government then and so had to be protected accordingly?

Do you really believe that Cummings just made up everything he said in his testimony to that Committee of MPs back in May?

How about the farce yesterday, whereby the PM and Chancellor were exempt from isolation, then they weren't and then Johnson "explained" it away by claiming he had briefly considered () claiming an exemption because he was part of some scheme that was unheard of until yesterday, but thought better of it - that might have worked were it not for the fact that it had been announced he and Sunak were exempt hours earlier.

You're in no position to lecture those of us on the left about supporting Cummings. Based on what I've seen and read, people know what Cummings is, but look at his testimony in May and think, in this instance, there is a ring of truth to it. You're probably one of those Conservatives who trot out the line about people in the south Wales valleys voting for anything that wears a red rosette, but your actions, or, to be more exact, inaction over the past year marks you out as someone who does the same as long as long as the rosette is blue.

Thanks for acknowledging the fact that I said Cummings should have gone from the outset. I call things out as I see them but that can't be said for everyone.Leaving the Cummings issue aside, the points you make can in general just as easily be attributed to those who vote Labour as well as Conservative on the various threads that appear on these pages. As I see it the difference is that some people vote for political parties at elections based on their policies at the time; they do not always vote for a Party because that is the only way they have always voted. There is very little criticism of Starmer on these pages but after more than a year as Leader I still haven't the foggiest what he stands for but as a contributor on here I feel there is absolutely no point in making any points about his performance as I will only get shouted down. Life is too short. My guess is that others who don't follow the views of the majority on here feel the same.

I know it's hard to accept, but for many voters had two choices at the last election - Corbyn (potentially dangerous with a radical following) or the buffoon Johnson. Johnson came out on top as the least worst option but what I don't get is that left leaning contributors always seem to decry those who voted differently.

As far as I'm concerned I believe that Johnson will have to resign if this idiotic relaxation of the COVID restrictions results in hospitals getting swamped with COVID patients. That is not a view based on politics but is based on how I feel. I will happily criticise anyone, irrespective of political allegiance, if I happen to disagree with them.

[lisvaneblue]

Thanks for acknowledging the fact that I said Cummings should have gone from the outset. I call things out as I see them but that can't be said for everyone.Leaving the Cummings issue aside, the points you make can in general just as easily be attributed to those who vote Labour as well as Conservative on the various threads that appear on these pages. As I see it the difference is that some people vote for political parties at elections based on their policies at the time; they do not always vote for a Party because that is the only way they have always voted. There is very little criticism of Starmer on these pages but after more than a year as Leader I still haven't the foggiest what he stands for but as a contributor on here I feel there is absolutely no point in making any points about his performance as I will only get shouted down. Life is too short. My guess is that others who don't follow the views of the majority on here feel the same.

I know it's hard to accept, but for many voters had two choices at the last election - Corbyn (potentially dangerous with a radical following) or the buffoon Johnson. Johnson came out on top as the least worst option but what I don't get is that left leaning contributors always seem to decry those who voted differently.

As far as I'm concerned I believe that Johnson will have to resign if this idiotic relaxation of the COVID restrictions results in hospitals getting swamped with COVID patients. That is not a view based on politics but is based on how I feel. I will happily criticise anyone, irrespective of political allegiance, if I happen to disagree with them.

I looked the Worldometer stats for yesterday and of all new cases reported in Europe for that day 35% were in UK. Whatever your views on Covid rules that's a big number.

[goats]

I looked the Worldometer stats for yesterday and of all new cases reported in Europe for that day 35% were in UK. Whatever your views on Covid rules that's a big number.

Delta variant will soon swamp Europe as they open up, as just proved in Holland alone. If they haven’t vaccinated highly then they are in trouble…..

[the other bob wilson]

Delta variant will soon swamp Europe as they open up, as just proved in Holland alone. If they haven’t vaccinated highly then they are in trouble…..

On the subject of vaccinations, I see Germany have overtaken us now in terms of total jabs given.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/12/...eading-the-way

I saw a chart last week which said our rate of vaccination has declined recently which is a surprise to me. While I can understand that it gets progressively harder to get everyone to agree to being vaccinated because you're getting to the stage where you're up against anti vaxers and youngsters who know that Covid is very, very unlikely to kill them, I wouldn't have thought that, with not much over fifty per cent in the UK having had two vaccines, we've reached that stage yet.

[goats]

On the subject of vaccinations, I see Germany have overtaken us now in terms of total jabs given.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/12/...eading-the-way

I saw a chart last week which said our rate of vaccination has declined recently which is a surprise to me. While I can understand that it gets progressively harder to get everyone to agree to being vaccinated because you're getting to the stage where you're up against anti vaxers and youngsters who know that Covid is very, very unlikely to kill them, I wouldn't have thought that, with not much over fifty per cent in the UK having had two vaccines, we've reached that stage yet.

Expect that to rise now mind, clubs and gigs requiring two jabs to get in…..

[the other bob wilson]

Thanks for acknowledging the fact that I said Cummings should have gone from the outset. I call things out as I see them but that can't be said for everyone.Leaving the Cummings issue aside, the points you make can in general just as easily be attributed to those who vote Labour as well as Conservative on the various threads that appear on these pages. As I see it the difference is that some people vote for political parties at elections based on their policies at the time; they do not always vote for a Party because that is the only way they have always voted. There is very little criticism of Starmer on these pages but after more than a year as Leader I still haven't the foggiest what he stands for but as a contributor on here I feel there is absolutely no point in making any points about his performance as I will only get shouted down. Life is too short. My guess is that others who don't follow the views of the majority on here feel the same.

I know it's hard to accept, but for many voters had two choices at the last election - Corbyn (potentially dangerous with a radical following) or the buffoon Johnson. Johnson came out on top as the least worst option but what I don't get is that left leaning contributors always seem to decry those who voted differently.

As far as I'm concerned I believe that Johnson will have to resign if this idiotic relaxation of the COVID restrictions results in hospitals getting swamped with COVID patients. That is not a view based on politics but is based on how I feel. I will happily criticise anyone, irrespective of political allegiance, if I happen to disagree with them.

I don't agree about Starmer, he's quite often criticised by posters on here who appear to be left of centre to me (quite often, rightly so in my opinion - I was happy to see him become Labour leader because he has an air of competence to him, a quality sadly lacking in Parliament these days I feel, but I accept now that's not enough. As you say, Starmer and his party, are suffering because they lack a "big idea" which will resonate with voters).

People on the left tend to be far more critical of their own than people on the right are in my experience (in public anyway) - something that very often puts parties of the left at a disadvantage in a world where so much is against them already. So, I'm not sure that they are as loyal to the Labour party as people on the right tend to be to the Conservatives.

This Parliament has been dominated by Covid so far and this Government has to be primarily judged by how they've coped with it. So, while I accept and share some of misgivings many had against Corbyn, I must ask would we really be worse off now if he and his party had won in December 2019? The one shining light this Government can point to in the fight against the virus is the vaccine program which has transformed lives to a large extent, but would a Labour Government have done anything different, and detrimental, to what the Tories have done when it comes to vaccination? I doubt it very much, in fact, I would say that there would have been less pressure from the backbench's making the argument for business over people for Corbyn than there has been for Johnson.

Would Labour have declined to bring in a furlough scheme? Surely not, the whole concept of furloughing is a left of centre one.

Once you account for the vaccine programme and furloughing, what is there that this Government has done when it comes to Covid that can be deemed a success? While I disagree with Starmer's attempts to pass off the Delta variant as the Johnson variant because it would have got here eventually anyway, you have to wonder about the inconsistencies between how the UK Government treated India and how they treated Pakistan and Bangladesh in the spring - not for the first time, the suspicion is that Government policy in the pandemic has been influenced by the possibility of personal gain and/or cronyism.

[Gofer Blue]

Over 60% of the people in hospital with COVID infection have not had even a first dose of vaccine. Begs the question why not? Something for our statisticians to take a look at I think.

[lisvaneblue]

Over 60% of the people in hospital with COVID infection have not had even a first dose of vaccine. Begs the question why not? Something for our statisticians to take a look at I think.

More a job for the behavioural psychologists, although the vaccine uptake in the young will probably shoot up in order to get a 'nightclub' passport.

[Gofer Blue]

More a job for the behavioural psychologists, although the vaccine uptake in the young will probably shoot up in order to get a 'nightclub' passport.

Maybe. I didn't want to jump to the conclusion that the 60% who have not been vaccinated were young people or anti-vaxers, hence I would like to see an analysis of why those patients are un-vaccinated. There may be genuine medical reasons.

[Michael Morris]

I’m in England for a few days and on Sunday (before freedom day) we went to Clacton Pier. The indoor entrance, which is a massive amusement hall, saw hardly anyone wearing a mask. Total ignorance of them.

On Monday we got to our hotel in Norfolk and they had changed their wording to say masks no longer required indoors. The local shop I just went to had a sign saying masks at own discretion.

Clacton was a car crash, but up here they are appear more relaxed and common sensical

[xsnaggle]

I’m in England for a few days and on Sunday (before freedom day) we went to Clacton Pier. The indoor entrance, which is a massive amusement hall, saw hardly anyone wearing a mask. Total ignorance of them.

On Monday we got to our hotel in Norfolk and they had changed their wording to say masks no longer required indoors. The local shop I just went to had a sign saying masks at own discretion.

Clacton was a car crash, but up here they are appear more relaxed and common sensical

I'm kind of hoping that because a lot of people were only paying lip service to the rules before the opening up yesterday that maybe the surge may not be as big as is feared by some.
In response to TOBW, I saw the numbers were slightly lower too. It made me wonder if these numbers re telling us we have passed the pre opening crest of this wave, which might inform those that can work it out when we can expect to reach the crest now we re opened up?

[az city]

It made me wonder if these numbers re telling us we have passed the pre opening crest of this wave, which might inform those that can work it out when we can expect to reach the crest now we re opened up?

As I pointed out before, there are often data reporting lags/snags so single day data can be misleading. 7-day moving averages and weekly totals are more reliable. For the whole UK, as of today, there was a 40% increase in cases on a base of the previous 7 days. Just so you don't go down the Trump hole again, approximately the same number of tests were conducted over the two seven day periods. I think you can infer case numbers are rising. So are hospitalizations and deaths. Albeit the relationships that emerged in 2020 among cases, hospitalizations and deaths are now no longer valid.

Personally, I think now is a time for caution. Mask-wearing, avoiding congregate settings and social distancing works; both personally and socially. These aren't that hard to do, surely?

[surge]

It would be absolutely wonderful if we're in a strong position now* because that means we can double our efforts to help the wider world.

We (at this time referring to the UK) need to protect wider world from the Delta Variant as we need France to protect the UK from the Beta Variant. We also need to help wider world get access to vaccines.

Understanding of the risks, what actions can be used to reduce this and empathy for others in the UK and outside it.

*though everyone with any sense is still recommending caution here and slow release of pandemic habits.

[xsnaggle]

As I pointed out before, there are often data reporting lags/snags so single day data can be misleading. 7-day moving averages and weekly totals are more reliable. For the whole UK, as of today, there was a 40% increase in cases on a base of the previous 7 days. Just so you don't go down the Trump hole again, approximately the same number of tests were conducted over the two seven day periods. I think you can infer case numbers are rising. So are hospitalizations and deaths. Albeit the relationships that emerged in 2020 among cases, hospitalizations and deaths are now no longer valid.

Personally, I think now is a time for caution. Mask-wearing, avoiding congregate settings and social distancing works; both personally and socially. These aren't that hard to do, surely?

Why don't you stop withe Trump hole crappie. He is and was nothing to me. Why would he be. Similarly you suggested I was a conspiracy theorist. Nothing could be further from the truth. I appreciate what you say about 7 day numbers and I get it. But the initial theory was that numbers would double every 7 days and from your own figures they clearly aren't..... yet. So if the pre-unlock numbers are plateauing I merely suggest that the modellers may be able to project the time of the expected post unlock peak. I gree wearing masks in crowe places is a no brained but if we cannot sort to open up now when will we? The number of vaccines being given is going down and the people choosing not to get them now will still be doing so later when weather will be worse for us and better for it.
Some people would happily ban nightclubs from ever opening again or pubs and some people are becoming institutionalised and feel they need to do told what too. Its not healthy.

[az city]

Similarly you suggested I was a conspiracy theorist. Nothing could be further from the truth.

From one of your previous posts: "Some of the things this government want to do generally could turn this country into a business wasteland, and their desire to control every facet of peoples lives, made more real than they ever could have dreamed by this pandemic, is making sure it will happen faster."

That's a conspiracy theory.

[xsnaggle]

From one of your previous posts: "Some of the things this government want to do generally could turn this country into a business wasteland, and their desire to control every facet of peoples lives, made more real than they ever could have dreamed by this pandemic, is making sure it will happen faster."

That's a conspiracy theory.

It's not a conspiracy theory except in your internet wired head. It's a opinion. Look it up

[az city]

It's not a conspiracy theory except in your internet wired head. It's a opinion. Look it up

Please stop. You don't even realize (apparently) that you are just repeating a form of the NEW World Order conspiracy theory.

[xsnaggle]

Please stop. You don't even realize (apparently) that you are just repeating a form of the NEW World Order conspiracy theory.

you talk some highbrow shite don't you? New world order theory my arse. You're obsessed with conspiracies.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

It's not a conspiracy theory except in your internet wired head. It's a opinion. Look it up

A theory of a conspiracy not being a conspiracy theory

[az city]

Why don't you stop withe Trump hole crappie. He is and was nothing to me. Why would he be.

'"By the way, when you do more testing, you have more cases. We have more cases than anybody because we do more testing than anybody. It's pretty simple," Trump said Friday in the White House Rose Garden.'

Reference: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...perts-n1228671

[xsnaggle]

'"By the way, when you do more testing, you have more cases. We have more cases than anybody because we do more testing than anybody. It's pretty simple," Trump said Friday in the White House Rose Garden.'

Reference: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...perts-n1228671

you must be totally obsessed with him to be able to first remember him saying that and then to be able to put your finger on the exact quote so easily. I'm not. I have no interest in him, his quote his anything else. It will no doubt amaze you to discover that other people hve said the same kind of thing. But you just pop the all in your 'trump hole'
I was actually referring to something I'd rad which had been stated by a British scientist. It pretty basic actually, if you test more people you'll find more positive.

[xsnaggle]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

This makes interesting reading.

Their numbers suggest that the rate of spread of the infection indicates it is now doubling every 16 days whereas at the end of June it was doubling every 7 days. Seems like it might be leveling out.
But further down the ONS survey for the 7 day period (Which of course is much better a guide) shows that the rate of infection is actally falling. Make what you will from that.

But of course the ONS might just be down a trump hole or something. Who knows?

[az city]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

This makes interesting reading.

Their numbers suggest that the rate of spread of the infection indicates it is now doubling every 16 days whereas at the end of June it was doubling every 7 days. Seems like it might be leveling out.
But further down the ONS survey for the 7 day period (Which of course is much better a guide) shows that the rate of infection is actally falling. Make what you will from that.

But of course the ONS might just be down a trump hole or something. Who knows?

"Leveling out" as you refer to plateauing would be indicated by no (zero) increase in the numbers testing positive from one test period to the next. Clearly numbers are still rising so there is no "leveling out".

The current R(t) in Wales is estimated to be above one.

You are so closed in your views on this that it makes me think of proverbial Bukowski quote.