Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[CCFCC3PO]

Tragic story.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-53097646

[lisvaneblue]

Not quite yet, because it has been in a clinical trial until recently so you are jumping the gun a little bit. Based on the results of the trial, it is estimated as many as 5,000 lives could have been saved if we were in a position to use the treatment earlier. That is not me knocking anyone, by the way, it was always going to take time to get treatments that were effective (and no doubt we will find treatments that are even more effective, or alternative treatments that will be effective on those people for whom dexamethasone is not effective). But, it highlights that this will save many lives globally, hopefully we will see the death rate curve dampen soon.

I recommend that you read the trial data. It conclusively states that the drug makes a big difference for those needing oxygen or on a ventilator. The trial had 2,000 where dexamethasone was added to the usual treatments for 6 days, and 4000 patients where it was not added. For those who did not need ventilation or oxygen it made no difference.

As I mentioned in an earlier post there was a 35% reduction in death rate for those on ventilators, and 20% for those on oxygen when compared to the 4,000 who did not get it

[the other bob wilson]

I recommend that you read the trial data. It conclusively states that the drug makes a big difference for those needing oxygen or on a ventilator. The trial had 2,000 where dexamethasone was added to the usual treatments for 6 days, and 4000 patients where it was not added. For those who did not need ventilation or oxygen it made no difference.

As I mentioned in an earlier post there was a 35% reduction in death rate for those on ventilators, and 20% for those on oxygen when compared to the 4,000 who did not get it

What I don't get is how they can say on one hand that there is a 35 per cent reduction in the death rate of those on ventilators and, on the other, that it saves one life in every eight of those on ventilators - the two claims are not compatible are they?

Anyway, even if it saves over a third of lives that had been being lost, I'd still say that, great news that it is, it still doesn't equate to the vaccine that would make such a difference to how the world could operate. It's more that this treatment would be one of ,hopefully, a few that would mean that we could "live" with the virus without the need for the drastic measures we've seen in the event of no vaccine being forthcoming.

[Rjk]

What I don't get is how they can say on one hand that there is a 35 per cent reduction in the death rate of those on ventilators and, on the other, that it saves one life in every eight of those on ventilators - the two claims are not compatible are they?

Anyway, even if it saves over a third of lives that had been being lost, I'd still say that, great news that it is, it still doesn't equate to the vaccine that would make such a difference to how the world could operate. It's more that this treatment would be one of ,hopefully, a few that would mean that we could "live" with the virus without the need for the drastic measures we've seen in the event of no vaccine being forthcoming.

They could be compatible - the 35% reduction in the death rate could be 35% reduction of the existing death rate i.e. not absolute 35% but 35% of another %age,which could equal 1 in 8 people being saved.

You can formulate that into 2 equations with 2 unknowns and demonstrate that for a given death rate that it is feasible.

[the other bob wilson]

They could be compatible - the 35% reduction in the death rate could be 35% reduction of the existing death rate i.e. not absolute 35% but 35% of another %age,which could equal 1 in 8 people being saved.

You can formulate that into 2 equations with 2 unknowns and demonstrate that for a given death rate that it is feasible.

Thanks for that.

[the other bob wilson]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...-over-covid-19

[the other bob wilson]

All shops to reopen in Wales from Monday, but the five mile rule to stay for at least another fortnight.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...dates-18449324

[lisvaneblue]

They could be compatible - the 35% reduction in the death rate could be 35% reduction of the existing death rate i.e. not absolute 35% but 35% of another %age,which could equal 1 in 8 people being saved.

You can formulate that into 2 equations with 2 unknowns and demonstrate that for a given death rate that it is feasible.

That's exactly what it is. The reduction is a comparison between the dexamethasone group and the other group of patients

[City123]

[CCFCC3PO]

That can't be right. I've read here Drakeford and the Welsh Government are making a hash of this, and this clearly shows the Welsh Government are more effective in getting a lower R rate.

[CCFCC3PO]

I recommend that you read the trial data. It conclusively states that the drug makes a big difference for those needing oxygen or on a ventilator. The trial had 2,000 where dexamethasone was added to the usual treatments for 6 days, and 4000 patients where it was not added. For those who did not need ventilation or oxygen it made no difference.

As I mentioned in an earlier post there was a 35% reduction in death rate for those on ventilators, and 20% for those on oxygen when compared to the 4,000 who did not get it

I think you have misunderstood me, and I take responsibility for that because I was unclear.

My point was not about the effectiveness of the drug - but the fact it is based on trials and so we are not yet at the stage where we can say it has "greatly reduced death figures". Hopefully we will see the true impact in the next few weeks.

[Rjk]

That can't be right. I've read here Drakeford and the Welsh Government are making a hash of this, and this clearly shows the Welsh Government are more effective in getting a lower R rate.

someone on here posted that drakeford was being too cautious, while Boris was being too cavalier - I'm not sure exactly what r value they'd be happy with

[ccfc_is_my_life]

All shops to reopen in Wales from Monday, but the five mile rule to stay for at least another fortnight.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...dates-18449324

Phew, fortunate everyone lives within a 5 mile radius of where they work.

"Mr Drakeford did say that if you have a compassionate reason to visit someone beyond the local area, that will be allowed but he was not lifting it now as "the virus is not at an end"."

So saying the restriction would end July 6th is ****ing ridiculous unless Drakeford really believes the virus will be ended by then. Smacks of looking for an excuse to justify locking down longer than England.

[CCFCC3PO]

Phew, fortunate everyone lives within a 5 mile radius of where they work.

"Mr Drakeford did say that if you have a compassionate reason to visit someone beyond the local area, that will be allowed but he was not lifting it now as "the virus is not at an end"."

So saying the restriction would end July 6th is ****ing ridiculous unless Drakeford really believes the virus will be ended by then. Smacks of looking for an excuse to justify locking down longer than England.

Drakeford is, as you can see, backed up with the lowest infection rate in the country. But, yes, if you look at it simplistically and without factual evidence it may appear that he is acting out of spite.

The 5 mile guideline cannot be policed, but if the majority of people are following it then it will have an impact. I believe you can travel further than 5 miles for work purposes.

[CCFCC3PO]

someone on here posted that drakeford was being too cautious, while Boris was being too cavalier - I'm not sure exactly what r value they'd be happy with

0.7 I guess

[ccfc_is_my_life]

Drakeford is, as you can see, backed up with the lowest infection rate in the country. But, yes, if you look at it simplistically and without factual evidence it may appear that he is acting out of spite.

The 5 mile guideline cannot be policed, but if the majority of people are following it then it will have an impact. I believe you can travel further than 5 miles for work purposes.

Missing the point.

If Drakeford is saying he won't lift the "rule" NOW because the virus is "not at an end" then he cannot then state that the rule will be lifted on July 6th because the virus will pretty ****ing obviously not be at an end at that point.

He's giving a bogus rationale for not lifting it now and contradicting that rationale in the same press conference...

People are taking the piss distance wise and policing isn't happening. Neighbour has had a regular stream of visitors thoroughout lockdown, no social distancing. Spoke to a PCSO and was told unless it's clear long distance travel or is a group of more than six people, they can't really do anything - people can then claim they are delivering food / medicine and police have to prove otherwise.

I believe you can travel to work more than 5 miles. That just shows how ridiculous the rule is.

[CCFCC3PO]

Missing the point.

If Drakeford is saying he won't lift the "rule" NOW because the virus is "not at an end"

That isn't what he said.

[delmbox]

That's excellent to be fair

[Baloo]

Is the figure in brackets the range? if so why is it so wide in Wales (0.1-0.9)?

[ccfc_is_my_life]

That isn't what he said.

It's what he said in the link Bob posted...

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...dates-18449324

Wales First Minister Mark Drakeford has confirmed that the "stay local" five-mile rule will end on July 6

On Friday morning, he set out the timetable for Wales as restrictions are lifted over the next three weeks.

For the last few weeks people in Wales have been asked to not travel more than five miles from home, but that is set to end in two weeks time.

But those restrictions will be lifted in two weeks time and people will be able to travel as far as they want.

Mr Drakeford did say that if you have a compassionate reason to visit someone beyond the local area, that will be allowed but he was not lifting it now as "the virus is not at an end".

[CCFCC3PO]

It's what he said in the link Bob posted...

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...dates-18449324

Wales First Minister Mark Drakeford has confirmed that the "stay local" five-mile rule will end on July 6

On Friday morning, he set out the timetable for Wales as restrictions are lifted over the next three weeks.

For the last few weeks people in Wales have been asked to not travel more than five miles from home, but that is set to end in two weeks time.

But those restrictions will be lifted in two weeks time and people will be able to travel as far as they want.

Mr Drakeford did say that if you have a compassionate reason to visit someone beyond the local area, that will be allowed but he was not lifting it now as "the virus is not at an end".

He didn't say it in that way. He justified the cautious approach on the fact that the virus hasn't gone away, and highlighted a recent outbreak in North Wales as an example. I didn't think he was joining the dots in the way the article writer joined them.

[xsnaggle]

He said 6th July ...IF It's not guaranteed.

[Rjk]

He said 6th July ...IF It's not guaranteed.

Sensible to include the if statement - you wouldn't want to be seen to have to do an embarrassing u-turn whilst trying to manage a crisis.

[Delbert]

Is the figure in brackets the range? if so why is it so wide in Wales (0.1-0.9)?

The figure in brackets is the confidence interval, the range of values within which there is a 95% probability the true value lies.

The results are derived from the COVID symptom study app combined with swab testing. However swab testing for this study is carried out in England only, not Wales or Scotland. Therefore the results for Wales and Scotland are only an indirect estimate and so are provided with wider confidence limits (the wider confidence limit for East of England is likely due to a smaller sample size compared to the rest of England).

[CCFCC3PO]

Sensible to include the if statement - you wouldn't want to be seen to have to do an embarrassing u-turn whilst trying to manage a crisis.

Not in Drakeford's case by the looks of it.

School re-opening. So, I was talking to my sister about her son. Their school is opening for 4 weeks, Y1-Y6. However, kids will attend just 1 morning a week (2 days), and there will be no teaching. My sister's conclusion - not worth it (despite her concerns on the effects of his education, 4 morning sessions with no teaching is not going to have an impact on that). Which, I have to say, seems a good decision. It helps protect teachers as we head to September when Social distancing can hopefully be relaxed as cases continue to wane.

However, this needs a real plan. If kids are allowed just 1 or 2 sessions of school a week then that serves no purpose at all. Maybe it needs some out of the box thinking, and maybe the use of offices, night/evening classes to get more regular schooling.